1st Yearly Review – Total profit: $22,189

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2 Responses

  1. Adam says:

    Been following with interest Steve.

    I don’t think you need to add much to the post actually – those who have a winners mentality can see where the mistakes were made. But anyone who has ever followed free or paid tipsters will have made those mistakes, 100% guaranteed.

    I would only say 1 thing:

    Betting in your sort of volume should be 100% systematic IMO. botted if possible, if not, rules to follow that should not be changed from 1 month to another or from 1 season to another. I think the soccer model is ok for poor quality leagues, which is a problem in itself because its tough to steam in for big stakes on those leagues. I think betting in the leagues which Johno calls cat 3, 4, 5 or whatever he labels them, regardless of historical performance, and perhaps sticking to unders on totals betting, should show a profit but probably only 2.5%-3% ROI.

    I don’t like the sound of the tennis bug or whatever, I’m very skeptical, at the end of the day if the sportpunter models would make 5%+ ROI across the board every year Johno would have very limited reasons for selling them. I’ve never seen a system in practice that produces the results it does in backtesting that has been sold to subscribers. I’ve seen it with my own stuff, but never on commercial products. The main reason for this is that there is usually some backfitting rather than backtesting that’s gone on, but the touts/tipsters justify it somehow.

    I do think you are betting way too high for a bank of only 50k, to be able to lose 20k+ in a week tells me that. My worst week ever was less than 10% of my bankroll, when literally everything I touched turned to shit, even then it was tough to take. If you weren’t in profit at that stage…..imagine.

    Really enjoyed the blog, it takes balls to post it all up there, very well done.


  2. admin says:

    Hi Adam,
    Botting is on the list, I just need to find a programmer who can do that. Although I have an IT degree, i despise programming and would not do it myself. I am testing out having a friend place all bets as I will be travelling, this has made me start making a bit of a more streamlined system to make it as easy as possible for him to follow.

    I won’t start the soccer until I get back, but not sure If i will follow again this season, I had placed a number of filters in last year and they seemed to do quite well.

    I have been following the sportpunter site for many years and the tennis model has made 5% or more on average for the last 7-10 years. I haven’t bet it before but the other members in the forum have and apart from the last few years they haven’t had any complaints.

    I agree that I am betting way more then I should be with my bank size, but i wont be changing it. I should have bet half of what I was, and the swings wouldn’t have been so bad. But I am aiming for $100k a year and these are the amounts I need to bet to have any chance of making it there. As i’ve mentioned before, I had a very lucky start and have been able to stay in profit pretty much from day 1. Things could off been very different and I doubt this site would still be around. With the current profit I have a bank of $92k so by keeping the same bank size and kelly amounts it should be ok.

    Thanks again for the comments, knowing at least someone is reading keeps me going.

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