Apr 13th – Apr 19th

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4 Responses

  1. Adam says:

    Dave constantly tinkers mate. You’ll get used to that – the ratings are decent but he wants to keep making unrealistic (IMO) ROIs, to him ROI is everything so he would snivel at the 1.4% on your blog, but when you see +31k you soon realise its not all about ROI but iterations.

    You’d be better off cracking some of your own strategies using the ratings.


  2. admin says:

    It does seem that way at times. With the new autobetting it would be very easy to come up with my own systems and have them bet for me. I really need to automate all my betting. If I could make this completely passive income then it would be perfect

  3. admin says:

    Adam, do you have any other horse racing tipsters you could recommend?

  4. Adam says:

    Hi Steve

    Personally i wouldn’t recommend anything “directly” because I’m a big believer that if you are going to use tipsters, you have to be getting something different out of them c.f. everyone else. For example your soccer strategy on the sportpunter stuff – i know some people disagree with the backfitting, and they are probably right but the main point for me is that you aren’t chasing prices, trying to do things that hundreds of other people do whereas with formbet, the product remains of a consistent quality, the only thing that can damage it is the price of the selections, and if lots of people are getting on board, those prices will inevitably move in by a (sometimes large) percentage thus destroying any edge that was there in the first race.

    I stick to ratings based stuff but do my own things based on the ratings. There are crossovers with Dave’s bets sometimes of course but a lot of mine are utilising other underbet factors (because that IMO is the fine line between winning and losing). There are other ratings products out there, but I don’t want to put any forward to you at the moment since I think you need to put in a solid performance with what you have got, get to an acceptable level of profit and ROI, and THEN look to change things/add more to the portfolio.

    I never even place a bet on a tipster without live proofing for long enough to make me mathematically certain that they have enough of an edge. I don’t mean to sound like I am trying to patronise, or anything like that, but you look to have made some of the same mistakes that I did when I started off – adding too many strings to the bow, picking up more tipsters, dropping them when they don’t perform – I have my methods and I stick to them, i WANT to get to the stage where things are boring and laborious because I’ve been doing exactly the same thing for several years, because I know that in a year they will work, even if in a day, week, month or even quarter of a year they don’t yield much or suffer a loss, there is always an equivalent upside (and indeed better, and that’s how we bank profits).

    With the number of tipsters you are using, I don’t know what the theoretical exposure to P and L could be over a week, but with this week’s 20k its certainly a frightening number. If I had to say one more thing about a mistake I have also made in the past (and still do!) its that times of year make a big difference especially on football ratings (referring to your football comments) – Jon’s model is relatively simplistic (in that it underperforms in the bigger leagues where more complex models can win in those leagues with regularity) so a rule of no bets in the first 6 games and last 6 games of any season might seem a little cautious but I think it would be a good idea for the future.

    You can still learn a lot from observation rather than action. Hope the above helps and is taken in the spirit that it is intended.

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