August 5th – August 11th -$6,879.76
Another poor week brings the yearly profit right back down to under $20,000. I’m happy with a 3.22% ROI if that lasts for a season, but I’m sure there will be wild swings either way of that number over the next 10 months. I have finally gotten around to creating a Facebook page for Daily25. I find twitters 140 character limit much too constraining when I am trying to explain something, so I’m hoping facebook will be a better place to interact. It also allows a better community for others to talk to each other. I’ll also be posting a lot more day to day stuff there.
This week just never got going, a big early loss on Friday followed by a good Saturday and than a poor Sunday. Historically the AFL model performs worse near the end of the season and that seems to be the case once again this year, but the NRL model has been horrendous. Over $12,000 lost in the last 2 weeks, the model seeming to prefer the favourites now and they are losing. I’m not sure if it is possible, but a different model for different times of the season might help. We do see it a fair bit with the SP models, the NFL totals only start performing after 7 weeks, and the NBA model is great in the first half of the season.
I’m always talking about entering and winning contest and once again won the Betfair 4th Ashes test prize. I’m now in front of second place by at least $50,000, so I’m unlikely to bet in the final round and try and hold onto that lead, good luck to the guys below me, if they can win over $50k on the last test they deserve the $15,000 grand prize. Tomorrow I will be testing a new idea I am working on. This test is a precursor of what is to come and it is more to test the response and to see if the website can handle to traffic. I think you will all be keen to be involved in this as prizes are involved.
Finally this week we will have a guest article from Matthew Trenhaile who was an odds compiler for many years and is now out on his own taking on the bookies. Matthew knows so much more than me about the industry and will be sharing many great insights. The first of many articles will talk about how the bookmakers compile odds. I’m really looking forward to learning a lot from Matt.
Onto the Sportpunter results and a week dragged down by the NRL service. That lost $7,850. The AFL pretty much broke even and the MLB made $1,500.
Dailyprofit members would be kicking themselves for paying for a year in advance right now. We had about 25% of members opt for the discount and since then it has been nothing but losing weeks for the SP service. Another 5 units lost this week. Happily for VIP members, the Value service continues to make guaranteed profits that cover any SP losses. But that offers little comfort for the non Aussie members who just follow the SP bets.
Onto the other bets for the week and Jason Kelly lost $400 this week. Betswot lost $375. Betting against price moves lost $500 and I bet the wrong side of a baseball game, but that mistake bet won $700.
So back to back losing weeks. July had 4 straight weeks of winnings, hopefully August doesn’t do the exact opposite. Remember to join the Facebook page and remember to come back tomorrow to see what I have been working on (and win prizes). Than on Thursday you can come back again to read Matthews article.
Total Loss for the week was $6,879.76
Stats Year 6
Total bet amount: $552,453.00
Bets Placed: 454
Half Payout: 3
Winning %: 41.5%
Total profit per day: $403,859.91 / 1868 = $216.05
Total Turnover: $22,438,485.30
Total ROI: 1.80%
AFL H2H $54,404.00 $1,028.91 1.9%
week profit/loss: -2806.26
AFL Line $170,539.00 $22,393.01 13.1%
week profit/loss: 2750
NRL $35,695.00 $(4,871.59) -13.6%
week profit/loss: -7839
MLB Totals $186,850.00 $4,112.02 2.2%
week profit/loss: 1494.75
Jason Kelly $3,165.00 $(3,165.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -400
Betswot $1,900.00 $(1,900.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -375
Odds Pushed Out $8,000.00 $1,182.50 14.8%
week profit/loss: -500
Personal $87,493.00 $(4,471.44) -5.1%
week profit/loss: 75
Mistake $1,750.00 $1,760.75 100.6%
week profit/loss: 720.75