Sep 3rd – Sep 16th +$5,533.03

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17 Responses

  1. PhatKoch says:

    Hey mate, glad you didn’t die. Ready to reveal the bones of your TFA portfolio yet, I’m intrigued to see if you were given the same portfolio advice as I was (very non correlated, makes sense).

  2. Steve says:

    Yeah, not correlated much. I’ll try and talk about it next week

  3. Matthew Trenhaile says:

    I am sure you have mentioned this before Steve but how did you come up with the 7% rule for prices you will take? As opposed to 6% or 8% or whatever.

  4. DrChris says:

    Hi Steve, you’re not betting the line with SP NFL? His results look good on his page don’t they? Can I ask what stakes you’re using for MLB, NRL and NFL compared to his suggested bets page? Many thanks!

  5. Steve says:

    It is fairly random. I believe long term to advised odds, the likes of ClubGOWI, TFA, WINABOB will produce about a 7% ROI. WINABOB also sent me data which showed that taking 7% worse or better odds on his selections (closing odds), resulted in a loss. I find it hard to not take the 7% better odds.

  6. Steve says:

    Jonno did some analysis on his website where the line bets didn’t perform till round 11 I think. I’m betting 5x what it shows on the website

  7. Buenos says:

    If a tipster has 7% ROI and you assume average odds of 2.00 and a 50% strikerate (very simplistic assumption, but could hold up for football tips with a tipster like Club GOWI) then you can take up to 12% worse odds than advised and break even.

  8. Air says:

    Hey, I was wondering how you made 6.5 K betting SP NFL totals while this model lost 1 k SP dollars as stated on their site ?

  9. Steve says:

    Yep, but I really see no point in taking breakeven bets.

  10. Steve says:

    I missed a fairly large loss on a Monday game (just forgot it was on), and I also use a higher min overlay.

  11. Tom says:

    Unrelated, but how is the ANZ rewards card going?

  12. Steve says:

    big thumbs up so far. Received $1,000 in rewards already.

  13. DrChris says:

    Can I ask what parameters you’re using Steve, I’m following the suggested and losing 30% on the totals. I haven’t bet on the lines yet, they are up 30%…….bummer

  14. Steve says:

    The only difference is I use 10% overlay. I looked over the results, I found a better line then the ones recorded, it was one of my biggest bets and while I won, it officially lost (I believe Jonno records at closing lines).

    I also haven’t followed lines. doh

  15. DrChris says:

    Thanks Steve, why 10% instead of 5%? The lines look pretty compelling, I might have a go at them 🙂

  16. Steve says:

    honestly, I can’t remember why I changed it, must have been down to some research Jonno did years ago. Be careful with the lines, they should revert back to their mean, which for the first 11 weeks is not good.

  17. DrChris says:

    Understood Steve, thanks as always for the advice

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