Dec 8th – Dec 14th

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8 Responses

  1. JLo says:

    nice write up mate, and nice profits. You could probably decrease your NHL kelly from 1/12 to say 1/8th. This being because the overlays in NHL are considerable less than the other sports.

  2. Matt says:

    Wonderful effort I must admit. May I ask a question…..how many hours a week do you dedicate to this?
    I am doing something similar full time (40 hrs)but just backing line movements and doing some arbing for a bit extra. I have always wanted to try something like this and see how I went full time and now reading your post I can see with a few tweaks that it could work. Last financial year I turned over 4.2 mill but have only managed to make 1.113% . Pretty shitty really when you think I did it for a whole year…. the perks have been good though. I can fly business class for the next 10 years gratis through my cc points and every now and then the books fly me up to the footy or the tennis.
    Anyway, it would be great to talk to you if you had the time and we could trade some tips and know how on this wonderful pastime.

  3. Tim says:

    Hi there, I’ve enjoyed reading your blog. I haven’t played the soccer model but am considering it (certainly wish I had judging by your results). Time and effort has stopped me thus far, but if you were able to tell me (if it’s not too much trouble) what filters you use to determine your bets, that would be a great help and making it easier to get it started.
    Thanks a lot.

  4. plsmove says:

    Very nice post. It made me realize I am probably too risk averse as I use Kelly/30 or most often Kelly/40 fractions. I guess I need to think it over 🙂

    WOuld you be willing to write more on your soccer filters strategy. I shared mine on SP forum – you could see this post there. What I am most interested in is OVER betting. I dropped it completely so I was surprised to see your amazing results. How did you figured out totals betting?

  5. admin says:

    Jlo: I was contemplating moving my NHL down, so will do that this week.

    Matt: I would say Mon – Fri is about 30-60 mins and then Sat and Sun because of soccer, just over an hour. So a max of 8 hours a week. Just need to half that for the Tim Ferris 4 hour work week. Mind you, I spend many more hours keeping an eye on the games in progress which is a massive waste of my time.

    I did look into arbing, but the time commitment involved is huge and I would assume the bookies are more likely to close down your accounts much sooner if you do this. Have you found that to be the case?

    I place most of my bets at pinnacle and other US books so have been using online wallets instead of my credit card, I really should start getting more FF miles, as I love to travel as much as I love sports.

    Tim & plsmove, I posted my exact strategy in the sportpunter forum. But in short, I only bet leagues that have a history of at least 10% ROI. This takes out a lot of leagues. I check every league monthly and update accordingly. I also use the groupings that Jonno used on his soccer analysis post, he split the leagues into 5 groups. for example:

    Group1:

    england1
    england2
    france1
    germany1
    italy1
    netherlands1
    portugal1
    scotland1
    spain1

    For H2H after taking out all the leagues that are under 10% I then bet according to these overlay rules.

    Group 1: 40%
    Group 2: 20%
    Group 3: 10%
    Group 4 & 5: 5%

    So if there are any group 1 leagues left the overlay must be at least 40% to bet on that game.

    Totals is a little more complicated.

    Again, I take out all the leagues that haven’t got a 10% ROI. For Overs i wont bet on any Group 1 leagues.

    Group 2 & 3: 20%
    Group 4 & 5: 15%

    For Unders it is:
    Group 1: 17.5%
    Group 2-5: 12.5%

    I hope that answers everyone’s questions, if not just reply and I’ll try and explain it more clearly.

    Thanks for the comments

  6. admin says:

    Here are the current leagues i dont bet.
    For H2H:

    argentina 1
    australia 1
    austria 2
    belgium 1
    belgium 2
    brazil 1
    croatia 1
    czech 1
    czech 2
    denmark 1
    ecuador 1
    england 1
    england 2
    england 3
    england 4
    england 5
    estonia 1
    finland 2
    france 1
    france 2
    germany 1
    germany 2
    greece 1
    greece 2
    ireland 1
    israel 1
    italy 1
    italy 2
    latvia 1
    netherlands 2
    norway 1
    norway 2
    poland 2
    portugal 1
    romania 1
    russia 1
    scotland 1
    scotland 2
    scotland 3
    singapore 1
    slovakia 1
    slovenia 1
    spain 1
    spain 2
    sweden 1
    switzerland
    turkey 1
    usa 1

    For Totals:

    argentina 1
    belgium 1
    belgium 2
    brazil 1
    czech 1
    czech 2
    denmark 1
    england 1
    england 2
    england 3
    england 4
    england 5
    estonia 1
    finland 1
    finland 2
    france 1
    greece 1
    hungary 1
    ireland
    israel 1
    italy 2
    japan 1
    netherlands 2
    poland 1
    poland 2
    portugal 1
    portugal 2
    russa 1
    scotland 1
    scotland 2
    slovakia
    spain 1
    spain 2
    sweden 1
    turkey 1
    turkey 2
    usa 1

  7. admin says:

    These are the groupings from Jonnos post:
    Group1:

    england1
    england2
    france1
    germany1
    italy1
    netherlands1
    portugal1
    scotland1
    spain1

    Group2:

    austria1
    belgium1
    croatia1
    czechia1
    england3
    england4
    france2
    germany2
    greece1
    ireland1
    italy2
    netherlands2
    norway1
    poland1
    portugal2
    scotland2
    slovenia1
    spain2
    sweden1
    switzerland1
    turkey1

    Group3:

    argentina1
    australia1
    austria2
    belgium2
    czechia2
    denmark1
    england5
    finland1
    france3
    greece2
    iceland1
    israel1
    japan1
    mexico1
    norway2
    poland2
    russia1
    scotland3
    slovakia1
    turkey2
    usa1
    wales1

    Group4:

    chile1
    finland2
    hungary1
    latvia1
    lithuania1
    romania1
    scotland4
    sweden2
    ukraine1
    uruguay1

    Group5:

    ecuador1
    estonia1
    peru1
    singapore1

  8. plsmove says:

    Thanks mate!

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