Midweek Soccer Carnage -$21,000 in 90 minutes

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10 Responses

  1. Carl Aiau says:

    Hope Saturday turned around for you.

    I’m no longer following TFA, just multi-ing the top 4 selected selections from the portfolio I was following in case it comes back and I luckbox it up.

    It ate my bankroll for dinner

  2. admin says:

    Saturday wasn’t any better, lost another couple of grand. I feel so bad for advising you to use the service, but did not see this coming. Hopefully you hit some multis in the next few weeks.

  3. Tom says:

    Don’t take this the wrong way but I think you really need to measure your expectations and focus a bit more on reducing risk. TFA has definitely been having a poor season but to be looking at loosing your bankroll at this point is a bit insane in my opinion.

  4. admin says:

    Hi Tom,

    My expectations were based on past results and the spreadsheet Graeme made for my specific portfolio. It’s worst result was a $191k return for the season. I laughed this off in my early season write up and said I would be over the moon with a 75-100k return. I also created a 100k bank to cover any bad runs (sadly a worse then very bad run has happened). I still have 50% of that bank remaining, but with the amount bet each week, that could be gone in a week.

    Looking back now it’s easy to see I have bet too big on too many systems and was chasing after that big win. Something that will help me be more realistic in my expectations in the future.

    Graeme’s bank loss isn’t far off mine, and I would assume a lot of other TFA subscribers are the same, as you can see from Carl’s comment above, he lost his bank.

    I think the issue with any tipping service (sadly) is that your only as good as your last bet. With Graeme going so well over the years, his clients would be not only upping their stakes year on year, but also following more models. It only takes one bad run like this to ruin 4 years of great results.

    This has taught me to see more long term and I will be setting lower targets and not increasing banks for the majority of models I follow.

    I still have faith in TFA and know it wont take much for a correction. I’m now down $53k, but last season made around $30k, so in total it’s a loss of $23k, which isn’t horrendous. As long as the model isn’t broken, then I don’t see it losing that next 50% of the bank and I can only hope that it recoups these losses and gets back to the results we have come to expect.

    I have made a mistake in my betsizes, but I’m a stubborn mule and won’t be lowering them as I don’t think that’s the right thing to do in this situation. Only time will tell if I made the right decision.

  5. Carl Aiau says:

    Saturday wasn’t any better, lost another couple of grand. I feel so bad for advising you to use the service, but did not see this coming. Hopefully you hit some multis in the next few weeks.

    – no no. Don’t feel bad. It’s just part of the game. Hopefully a four fold or two come in then I’ll be back into it.

    I used a 300unit bank so was pretty conservative. But ran really bad on 10unit+ selections, if more of them won, I’d be in the black.

    Hope the season makes a sharp turn around 🙂

  6. Tom says:

    I definitely get what you are saying, it took every ounce of restraint I had not to increase my TFA stakes this season too.

    I only follow System 21 sans league 2 and some of the STOZ picks and am down about 19% at this point, I was hoping for between 40-80 unit profit this season so my prospects were definitely a lot lower but I much prefer that than the notion of losing my entire roll!

    Before writing off soccer, Id suggest having a look at club gowi, don’t want to sound like a tout or anything but my experience with him since august has been inline with the results on the site, solid roi and big turnover on generally big markets.

  7. admin says:

    Hi Tom, the fact they put their ROI at 113% doesn’t fill me with much confidence in their maths skills. It is a 13% return, which is amazing anyway. They seem to go out of the way to make the results look so much better then they are and I hate blatant lies like that.

    Are the odds achievable? Do they move as soon as the email is sent?

  8. Tom says:

    I had the same reaction as you to that but I’ve seen it before from a finnish tipster, they explained that’s how they show ROI over there, much of a muchness in the end.

    The odds definitely move quickly but not too drastically, I usually get the same odds or about 2-4% worse if I’m not nearby. Emails were at about 1900 and 2330 Sydney time but now were on daylight savings and the Uk off it its now 2100 and 0130 or there abouts which is a bit of a pain.

  9. admin says:

    will keep looking into it.

  10. Carl Aiau says:

    Betdog also used to record ROI figures as a gross amount until there most recent update.

    Release times for clubgowi are sleepytime for me, bugger

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