Nov 28th – Dec 4th +$6,577.58

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8 Responses

  1. Stuart says:

    Can I ask where you get you NBA tips from please?

    Thanks

  2. admin says:

    Sportpunter.com
    They are free, but they usually start very well and then go not so well in the new year.

  3. Stuart says:

    Thanks

  4. Danny Murphy says:

    Great blog – one of the best out there. I hope you can get through this phase and get the success you deserve, I know how hard it is to do something like this.

    I feel you are being hard on FB Elite as he is only 8.50 points down so far. However if you strip the season long tips out the game picks are only around even for the last three seasons. In the light of this is your current bet size really justified under Kelly rules? The season long bets from FB Elite were very astute but perhaps the market has adjusted to the game model.

    This may sound a daft question but how poor would a system return have to be for you to drop it mid season?

  5. admin says:

    Thanks Danny, I’m hoping that I have one of those weeks where everything makes a profit, now that will be one hell of a week. The potential profit is in the 30-40k mark on any given week, so a few of those back to back and I’ll be laughing again.

    I believe FB Elite recommended a 20point bank (I could be wrong), but that means he is pretty close to half way there, Skeeve is also well over half way towards the bank.

    Also I had never followed the season long tips until this season, and two have certainly lost and the other way is looking shaky. Without doubt I have bet too much with both these guys but wanted to average the same profit on each model I followed.

    The only reason for dropping a system is once they hit a 100% loss of the starting bank.

  6. Danny Murphy says:

    Thanks. Looking at FB Elite again I see the av bet on a match is around 2.5. Even allowing for the FB edge that is still a high number. A 20 point swing would not be unusual on such a small sample size at those av odds. There is a real chance you could get tapped out in Feb say only for the rebound to happen after. Nightmare!

    You’ve done really well with this but a big bet size on just a small number of selections around 2.5 will be very volatile. I hope it goes your way anyway :).

  7. admin says:

    Yep, but that bank is the one advised by FB Elite themselves, if that is reached then even if I was just betting 100 or 1000 per point, I would still stop using the service.

    I’m still relatively in the early years here and this is another mistake that I hopefully wont make again. I was greedy and made assumptions based on nothing which as always in this game, tend to come back and bite you on the arse.

  8. Danny Murphy says:

    Well don’t be too hard on yourself, your position is still very good. FB Elite could yet come up trumps. And Skeeve is due a win :).

    It’s good to stick to a plan like you do but also it’s important to listen to your gut instincts too.

    All the best.

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