The Football Analyst (TFA) 2012/13 Review

The simplest thing to say is that Graeme did a million times better job of reviewing his own systems and his results can be found here. Unlike a number of other services, he records odds at get-able prices so my results would be very close to his. The only difference was I was betting $750 on home wins and half that amount on away bets (which will account for the different results). I would say take 1-2% ROI of his official results and you can be guaranteed those are fair numbers.

So let’s start with what I said at the start of the season.

Football Analyst is a new system for me and I am following about 10 of the 1 billion different systems on offer. With the UK bets I am betting $750 home and $375 aways and for all euro league bets I will be betting $375. Graeme produced my very own spreadsheet on what I can expect and we are looking for a 100% ROC, which should see $75,000 added to the bank this season.

Before we start with how things went let me offer a disclaimer. There are a heap of different systems and even more combinations to follow, I haphazardly choose 10 systems to play based on past performance, the amount of bets and a set goal I wanted to achieve. Everyone following TFA will have different portfolios and therefore different profits at the end of the season.

So the goal was $75,000 profit. We ended with $35,571.42, so a little under half the expected result. The highest profit mark was $48,000 at the end of March and I was hoping the last few months would see it get close to its target. But the Euro systems lost a massive $29,000 in the last few weeks to wipe out any chance of that. Graeme did say a few times throughout the season that he was not confident in the Euro picks and in the end he was right.

Total cost of the service was £150($228) and profit was $35,571.42. So the ending profit was $35,343.42. Even though it is more then 50% less then I had anticipated, I can’t be unhappy with such a large profit.

In total $587,115 was bet which equates to a ROI of 6%. Breaking it down further, the Established systems had a total bet amount of $328,623 and a profit of $33,876.01, which is a ROI of 10.3%. The Euro system had a total bet amount of $258,492 and a profit of $1,695.41 for a ROI of 0.65%.

Let’s compare that to the official results (using $375 per bet). Established bets had $226,875 bet for a profit of $26,587.50 which is a ROI of 11.7%. The Euro system had a total of $261,375 and a loss of $37.50 for a ROI of 0%. In total that was $488,250 and a profit of $26,550 and total ROI of 5.4%.

We can see that my results and the official results are very close. Here is a further breakdown of all the results.

My Results (Established systems)
6-22 $73,315.00 $7,766.75 10.6%
7-21 $117,485.00 $10,867.00 9.2%
7-22 $49,185.00 $4,625.25 9.4%
8-21 $57,125.00 $9,032.88 15.8%
8-22 $31,513.00 $1,584.13 5.0%

Official Results (these are in units. 1 unit = $375)
6-21 563 43.0 7.6%
6-22 148 16.9 11.4%
7-21 210 18.5 8.8%
7-22 93 9.2 9.8%
8-21 97 20.7 21.3%
8-22 57 5.7 10.0%

My Results (Euro systems)
E1-E7 $75,830.00 $(1,589.74) -2.1%
E2-E6 $87,412.00 $(2,502.61) -2.9%
E2-E7 $44,625.00 $4,037.26 9.0%
E3-E6 $32,250.00 $(923.25) -2.9%
E3-E7 $18,375.00 $2,673.75 14.6%

Official Results (these are in units. 1 unit = $375)
E1-E7 203 -6.8 -3.4%
E2-E6 236 -8.9 -3.8%
E2-E7 121 9.1 7.6%
E3-E6 86 2.4 2.7%
E3-E7 51 4.1 8.1%

Just for a bit of fun, if I had followed every single UK system bet (impossible) then I would have bet a total of $3,612,000 and made a profit of $349,312.50 at a ROI of 9.7%.

So at the end of the day, not what I was hoping but still a healthy result. I will readjust for the 13/14 season and hope that this new portfolio performs as well as it has in past years.

Looking forward to another year of TFA.