April 15th – April 21st -$23,895.21

[dropcap]B[/dropcap]ack into the red for the year. It really has been a very disappointing year and one that has bucked the trend of the previous 4 seasons. In early January it looked like this year was on track to be the best one yet. Now I will be happy just to break even in 2 and a bit months time. At the beginning of this journey I looked at things from a daily perspective, after a while that moved to a weekly and than monthly perspective, over the years my view has moved all the way to a year (as a minimum) when looking at results. But just like stocks, I think my perspective has to change to an even longer term view. As we saw with the so called lost decade for stocks between 2000-2010, if you started in the market in 2000, 10 years later where traditionally the market is meant to double over that time period, you were instead sitting on a loss. Most people gave up on stocks and will probably never invest again if they went through that period, and we see a similar thing with punters today. But just 5 years later, that same market is now up 80%. While I wouldn’t call my past 5 years a lost half decade in anyway, I believe the returns are below a long term average. Unless you have been given 6 months to live, 1 year is a very short time frame. But we all focus on the short term as that is where we spend most of our time, in the present moment. So while I know this year is going to suck, I also know that if I continue to follow my plan and control the things that can be controlled, over the long term, my returns will dwarf anything I could achieve by investing in the stock market. In saying that, I also want a decent chance of a nice retirement fund and I am heavily invested in the stock market which I see as money I will never touch until I fully retire.

lostdecade

So onto this week results and the AFL model had a poor week, pretty much down to the last 30 seconds of a game. Just one of those games where a goal in the dying seconds changes a +11k win into a -11k one. This week we saw a $8,100 loss for the AFL. The NHL made $2,100 but the biggest bet of the season ($5,000) went down yesterday. The Rugby had a shocker with a $3,700 loss to bring the season back into the red. The NRL on the other hand made $2,100.

ClubGOWI lost $1,400 and Jason Kelly also lost $200. It looks like frazzled from Betswot has been poached as there have been no picks from him for a while. If anyone knows where he moved to, I would love to know.

Ahh Soccer. This week I decided to analyse my many years of betting, I broke it down into a number of different graphs. You can see them all on my twitter page. Below is my Soccer betting graph from day 1 till last week. After this weeks disaster we are now in a negative position. Soccer betting is the most time consuming part of my portfolio. I have gone on about the Pareto principle before, otherwise known as the 80/20 rule. You can use it however you want, so for example, 80% of my profits come from 20% of models followed. It is good to understand where the poor 80% is and cut it off. Soccer will be sliced and diced massively at the end of this season. These results are not to say there are no good soccer tipsters and I will break down every service I have followed over the years to see which ones to keep and which ones to cut.

soccer

This weeks results were horrendous (which has sadly become the norm). The Football Analyst lost $10,800 and I would say there is a 50/50 chance Graeme just throws it all in at the end of this season. I keep saying it weekly, but I’m lucky the Winabob service quotes unrealistic odds. This week I only managed to bet 9 of the 31 selections which resulted in a loss of $3,600. But if I had bet them all that loss would have been very close to $10,000 as well. Football Investor continues to give back all the profits he had made earlier in the season with a $6,700 loss this week. Football Elite lost $750 and Football Value was the only profitable service with a $1,700 gain. I will see the season out and take a long hard look at all the tipsters and decided if it is going to be worth the time and effort in year 6.

That ends another poor week for the portfolio, the good thing is our brains only see the present, and I can now forget about that week as soon as I hit publish and concentrate on the week ahead. That’s one great trick I have learnt, you can use your brain to your advantage sometimes. Onto a new week and we start at 0 once again.

Total Loss for the week was $23,895.21

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Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $6,215,359.93
Profit/Loss: -$9,535.70
POT: -0.15%
Bets Placed: 8759
Won: 2828
Lost: 4080
Half Payout: 61
Refunded: 1790
Winning %: 40.9%
Total profit per day: $337,989.14 / 1756 = $192.47
Total Turnover: $20,558,103.30
Total ROI: 1.64%

AFL H2H – SP $78,065.00 $11,028.03 14.1%
week profit/loss: -7679

AFL Line – SP $360,839.00 $(21,109.37) -5.9%
week profit/loss: -454.80

NHL Totals $550,756.00 $18,756.69 3.4%
week profit/loss: 2183.26

Rugby SP $56,963.00 $(634.10) -1.1%
week profit/loss: -3684

NRL SP $75,133.00 $3,612.98 4.8%
week profit/loss: 2068.95

SP MLB $344,272.00 $19,837.48 5.8%
week profit/loss: 4421.88

ClubGowi $645,763.00 $4,516.62 0.7%
week profit/loss: -1391.25

GOWI $19,776.00 $3,322.28 16.8%
week profit/loss: 0

Jason Kelly Golf $13,441.93 $(7,208.53) -53.6%
week profit/loss: -200

Betswot $9,573.00 $(7,818.00) -81.7%
week profit/loss: 0

FB Elite $213,511.00 $1,866.38 0.9%
week profit/loss: -750

Football Value $59,000.00 $(3,015.00) -5.1%
week profit/loss: 1700

TFA 21 $382,784.00 $(6,797.10) -1.8%
week profit/loss: -6437.50

TFA 41 $370,876.00 $(15,211.00) -4.1%
week profit/loss: -5520

6-21-31 $211,857.00 $9,462.72 4.5%
week profit/loss: -4216

D1-D6 $132,700.00 $7,135.00 5.4%
week profit/loss: 4185

E1-E6 $128,040.00 $23,647.40 18.5%
week profit/loss: 1185

Mike Lindley $96,264.00 $(5,123.00) -5.3%
week profit/loss: -1000

WINABOBATOO $365,655.00 $(7,806.88) -2.1%
week profit/loss: -2630

FBI combo $147,500.00 $8,141.20 5.5%
week profit/loss: -1656

FBI Euro $203,492.00 $554.70 0.3%
week profit/loss: -5022.50

Odds pushed out $46,250.00 $6,465.00 14.0%
week profit/loss: 220

Personal $68,177.00 $(12,687.60) -18.6%
week profit/loss: -324.25

Mistakes $13,735.00 $(13,735.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0

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