Aug 21st – Aug 27th +$17,612.48

The 4th week of profit in a row and what a profit, for such low turnover this was an amazing week and it came within 3 points in an AFL game of being $7,000 better. The only disappointment was Soccer with 4 from 4 bets losing. Both models that went terrible last year have started the same way this year. But the positives far outweighed the negatives this week.

For the 3rd year in a row I am in the states while the US Open is on and Tennis turned around this week, making $4,400. With a few early wins in round 1, I’m hoping for the same results from the US Open that happened 2 years ago. OTP NRL made a small profit of $320 and the Golf picks are still yet to hit a winner and lost a further $825 this week, I mentioned that I was able to beat the Winner market prices, but in the last two weeks this hasn’t been the case, this might be another case of the odds not being achievable and therefore not worthwhile. Once I get back to OZ I will try and open a few UK books and see if I can get anywhere near the odds.

Onto Soccer and Skeeve has started the year terribly, 4 from 4 losses and a further $3,600 lost, I’m kicking myself for upping stakes, but to be honest, because of the price of the service and the return I expect, betting anything less would not be worth it in my opinion. I know it’s early days and have seen Skeeve turn these bad runs around really quickly. But he did pay out some other tipster before he started this season and has done much worse then him. I like the confidence, but would much prefer the profit. I know Skeeve reads this blog, so I like to make him squirm every now and then. haha, I’m hoping I will be heaping praise on you in the coming weeks and months mate. FB Elite had 1 loss for -$1,000.

It seems I’m bashing tipsters today, but onto CRDOG and the Sportpunter MLB model. After a horrendous run where I lost about $17,000 in 2 weeks, I asked CRDOG if there was a problem with the model, and was told that his team don’t bet totals at all during the Aug/Sep period and greatly reduce stakes for H2H bets, as mentioned in an earlier post, I was pretty pissed that subscribers were not told this earlier. I asked for some stats and was told that he didn’t have any but they felt that they never made a profit during this period, Jonno the ever helpful owner of Sportpunter did some analysis for me and showed that a healthy profit was made during that period, but I decided to follow H2H and leave totals alone, we all know what happens then, Totals went on to make a profit of over $8,000 while I was not following it, which would have covered the loss that I made. This week I decided to start following it again and made $5,000 profit which is a great start and H2H also made $2,100. A great MLB week.

Now onto some Tipster loving, and it’s going out to Jonno. Only 1 week of AFL action left before the finals and the model is making as much as possible from it. Another $11,000 profit this week and for once the big bet on St Kilda wasn’t in doubt. My choice of a moving bank has been a genius move as the analysis suggested the player based model really came into its own near the end of the season when players were more likely to be injured and teams with no chance of making the finals resting players. The only downer was Melbourne losing the line with a few minutes left when they looked like they had the line covered easily the whole game, I guess we can’t win them all, but what a week it will be when that happens. I had a look at AFL over the past 3 season and in total it has returned $112,000, more the half my total profit. The best model on the internet by far, but don’t follow it as I don’t want to have to fight with any more subscribers to get my bets on.

A great week that once again pushed my total profit over the $200,000 mark. Here’s hoping that it never dips below that level again. I’m actually staying on a boat for my week in Miami and the ups and downs on this thing are much like my betting career (alright, that was a terrible analogy, i just wanted to make you all jealous).

On a final note, a big congrats to Stephen Maher of the great Gambler falls blog on completing his €100 To €100,000 challenge. Stephen actually uses some semblance of skill and traded his way to that profit, a much more impressive feat then me following a rag tag bunch of tipsters. Doubt you read the blog but well done anyway.

Total profit for the week was $17,612.48

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $424,033.00
Profit/Loss: $21,072.35
POT: 4.97%

Bets Placed: 604
Won: 252
Lost: 344
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 8
Winning %: 42.3%

Total profit per day: $208,594.44 / 1154 = $180.75
Total Turnover: $10,173,862.53
Total ROI: 2.05%

AFL H2H – SP $19,505.00 $2,770.95 14.2%
week profit/loss: 1444.85

AFL Line – SP $132,084.00 $29,362.22 22.2%
week profit/loss: 9716.54

ATP – SP $88,153.00 $1,773.17 2.0%
week profit/loss: 4391.89

FB Elite $3,000.00 $(630.00) -21.0%
week profit/loss: -1000

Skeeve $4,800.00 $(4,800.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -3600

OTP NRL $24,000.00 $4,507.00 18.8%
week profit/loss: 320

MLB H2H $93,448.00 $(4,186.10) -4.5%
week profit/loss: 2091.54

MLB Totals $53,565.00 $(4,490.89) -8.4%
week profit/loss: 5072.66

NP Win $3,253.00 $(3,253.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -825

NP Place $1,625.00 $619.00 38.1%
week profit/loss: 0

NP trades $600.00 $(600.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0

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  • Tom

    Long time lurker, enjoying the blog.

    Just wondering how your going about using the likes of Pinnacle and Betfair from the states?

    I’ve used VPNS for it in the past but makes me a bit nervous, thinking of going with logmein and the a dedicated computer back home for the future.

  • admin

    Hey Tom,
    I’ve got both set up. If I have time and a strong connection I usually log into my computer at home and use that, if I’m on the road, i use the vpn through my phone.

    So far no issues, but the vpn could easily cut out without me knowing, so try not to use that as much.

    Hope that helps
    Steve

  • Tom

    hah great minds think a like I suppose.
    Thanks for the reply!