Dec 10th – Dec 16th +$29,140.36

[dropcap]Y[/dropcap]ou might want to save this weekly update and read it when you have a good 10 minutes. This one will cover a heap of stuff. It’s been an amazing week on many levels. The betting for one has taken off and for the first time ever it is Soccer that is adding all the profit. I was really contemplating dropping a lot of services this season, I’m glad I persevered. The tickets for my trip to the Superbowl are being booked today, two mates are making the trip with me and I am using my Frequent Flyer points to upgrade us all to Business Class (another perk from betting). Saturday also saw the release of Sporting Karma, my new website. In total we helped raise just shy of $20,000 (it may go over as more donations come in) for a local charity. The fact we created the product over two days and then had only 1 day to market it and we still managed to raise what is a massive amount makes me feel immensely proud. I see great things for this product in 2015. It’s been a very hectic 6 months and I will be slowing down until the new year. Time to reflect on a very big year and then make plans for 2015.

Saturday saw me at the Hawks game for Sporting Karma. We started by handing out flyers. I’ve never done that before and it’s damn hard to get people to take them. Getting people to do anything is really hard, but we handed out about 500 flyers. It was a pretty small crowd, but when your team is 2 from 12 for the season, you can understand why people don’t come. I had a large bet on the Hawks +2 so was cheering them on while inputting the live scores. Both teams knew that a lot of money was heading to charity based on how many points they scored and I thought it would be interesting to see how they dealt with this. At the start of the game, it looked like they were playing much quicker and trying to score a lot of points. But by the second quarter, they reverted to their low scoring average. The bookmakers had set the total points at 160 and it ended at 159 points, so knowing about the donations seemed to make no impact. It really looked like it was going to be a very low scoring affair, but the Hawks exploded in the last to score 31 points and take the win. Watching the donations head up on the Live score page was really cool, once we get some nice visualisation added it will be even better. We will be running the Prize draws tomorrow and then on Friday night, the winner will be presented with the Framed and Signed Hawks jersey at the game. We will spend the next month making everything work and look pretty and we will look to kick off 2015 with a massive prize pool for one of the opening NRL games. Let me know what sort of prizes or offers would make you want to donate, and we will try and get them in.

I came home Saturday night extremely satisfied but also very tired. I placed the bets where the odds had rebounded but there were a heap that had not, so I set an alarm for 20 minutes before kickoff and went to bed. Luckily I managed to wake up and place the remaining bets. I woke up to a massacre… for the bookies. $34,300 profit in 90 minutes. I love waking up and putting all the “Y”‘s in the Win column in my spreadsheet. It was more relief then anything else. Finally some breathing room for once. This year like others has been a real pain in the arse for the first 5 months. Who knows where I’ll end up on December 31st, but right now, I am very pleased with the current profit level.

Let’s get to the results. Last week when Football Elite had a poor week I said

That next target is looking very far off.

I was referring to the $20,000 target that would see me send him a further £100 payment. How wrong I was. $10,200 profit for the week and only $3,000 short of my third payment for the year. I’m hoping I not only pay the $20k bounty, but also the 30,40 and 50K ones.

Football Value has not done well at anytime this season, another $3,000 lost this week. This is my first year using the service and hopefully things can improve. I’m so happy for Graeme and the TFA model. A $17,300 profit this week and finally I can start praising the service again. Many of you stopped following this season because of mine and your own results. I did say that would be a mistake. The problem is, I’m sure most of you will now jump in again next season. It’s this exact sort of jumping in and out which causes the losses. You need to stick with models you believe in for the long term. If you only ever follow a service on the back of an amazing run and jump out after a poor one, you will end up on the tipster treadmill of doom until you run out of money. Winabobatoo has also had a great turnaround and is slowly digging itself out of a very large hole with $4,300 profit this week. Another replica of the last few weeks and we will be in profit with this (very hard to bet on) model. The Football Investors Combo and Euro bets also performed exceptionally, adding $5,500 profit. So an amazing week for Soccer and hopefully we see a similar pattern all the way till the season ends.

soccer

Onto the one Soccer tipster who has had an absolute nightmare few weeks. ClubGowi lost $5,400 for me this week, but had I bet all selections that would be over a $10,000 loss. Happily for me, many of his selections either went against other tipsters or the odds never recovered. Apart from the $6,000 Golf win from last season, for the past 5 and a bit months I am now break even with this service and would be at a substantial loss if I was able to get on all bets. This normally wouldn’t concern me, every tipster goes through troughs and peaks. What does concern me is how tipsters react to these good times and bad times. Lets compare and contrast the sort of reaction I like from a tipster. The last few seasons had not been great for Football Elite, but Mat simply said “These long term trends have been proven over many years, I’m not even going to filter them anymore”. He just stuck it out and pretty much said that over a very long term, the edge he has found will stay constant. Keith sent an email last night that worries me. This is the first real massive loss since I have been following his service, and I would have assumed the response would have been “Hey, losing runs happen. We will continue to do what we do and eventually the good times will come again”. But instead we get some worrying statements. Firstly that there have been a raft of losses that just couldn’t happen normally. For someone like Keith who has been around for a long time, surely he knows that Murphys law is a constant in betting. He does go on to say that anything can happen with betting. The most worrying sign for me is when a tipster decides to either ramp up or slow down after a losing run. My question is why? If you have a clear system that has worked for years, why does a short term trend affect your long term view? Ramping things up after a loss is a clear sign of chasing, Slowing down is a better response as it gives you time to look at what areas might be an issue, but it is not the best response. The best way to deal with a losing run is to keep going as you had planned from the start. Everyone will have their own opinions on how a tipster should react in these type of situations. I know how I will react if I see a similar downturn in my own service. Exactly the same way as if I had an amazing run or things had been going smoothly. I actually look forward to a sustained bad run for my service, as that will lead to the members who can’t deal with the ups and downs of betting to leave and will result in me only having members who understand what it takes to win long term. I have faith that the good times will roll again with this service, I also know there are some sports and leagues that he is terrible at, but without allowing anyone access to his record, we can not help him improve the service. I still hold that I will make a profit (0-3%ish) from this service long term.

Onto the other tipsters. Sportpunter NBA has been terrible over the last month. NBA H2H bets have lost a massive $9,200 this week. The Totals lost a further $1,400. NBL had a better week with $5,300 profit and the NHL Totals have been brilliant with $6,700 profit this week bringing the season long return to 17.8%. NFL lost $150.

PCG lost $2,300, Jason Kelly Golf lost $125, My own Personal bets made $200 and betting on opposite odds made $1,200.

It feels like creating Sporting Karma and giving something back has seen me receive some good Karma, since the idea was implemented, I’ve had nothing but winning weeks, won an all expenses paid trip to the Superbowl and many other good things have happened. Maybe there is something to this Karma thing.

Finally this week, The Dailyprofit service will be increasing prices from the new year. After looking around at what is currently available and the prices, it’s clear to see that I set the price way too low. All current members and those who sign up before the new year are grandfathered in and will continue to pay the initial price as long as they stay a member. For those joining in 2015 and beyond, the price will more reflect the quality of the service.

Total Profit for the week was $29,140.36

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $3,439,379.93
Profit/Loss: $43,963.39
POT: 1.28%
Bets Placed: 5005
Won: 1802
Lost: 2344
Half Payout: 43
Refunded: 816
Winning %: 43.5%
Total profit per day: $391,488.23 / 1630 = $240.17
Total Turnover: $17,782,123.30
Total ROI: 2.2%

NBL Totals $45,012.00 $(15,809.39) -35.1%
week profit/loss: -527

NBL Line $113,673.00 $18,507.57 16.3%
week profit/loss: 5816

NFL Totals $106,397.00 $14,776.26 13.9%
week profit/loss: 755.59

NFL Line $46,813.00 $(601.14) -1.3%
week profit/loss: -920.45

NHL Totals $97,146.00 $17,311.90 17.8%
week profit/loss: 6755.41

NBA Totals $224,911.00 $14,786.81 6.6%
week profit/loss: -1399.97

NBA H2H $140,254.00 $(5,239.58) -3.7%
week profit/loss: -9216.17

ClubGowi $407,571.00 $5,991.54 1.5%
week profit/loss: -5412.75

GOWI $10,951.00 $(3,360.00) -30.7%
week profit/loss: 0

PCG $187,181.00 $(2,863.03) -1.5%
week profit/loss: -2297.55

Jason Kelly Golf $9,996.93 $(7,748.53) -77.5%
week profit/loss: -125

Betswot $8,313.00 $(6,558.00) -78.9%
week profit/loss: 0

FB Elite $88,011.00 $17,011.50 19.3%
week profit/loss: 10230

Football Value $28,000.00 $(7,205.00) -25.7%
week profit/loss: -3000

TFA 21 $149,335.00 $269.70 0.2%
week profit/loss: 3643.50

TFA 41 $143,300.00 $(4,994.00) -3.5%
week profit/loss: 5343.50

6-21-31 $85,857.00 $5,815.22 6.8%
week profit/loss: 1413.50

D1-D6 $47,000.00 $7,650.00 16.3%
week profit/loss: 3380

E1-E6 $42,940.00 $14,360.00 33.4%
week profit/loss: 3520

Mike Lindley $35,000.00 $(493.50) -1.4%
week profit/loss: 220

WINABOBATOO $153,979.00 $(3,615.18) -2.3%
week profit/loss: 4091.50

FBI combo $72,500.00 $3,677.00 5.1%
week profit/loss: 1940

FBI Euro $72,000.00 $15,425.00 21.4%
week profit/loss: 3520

Odds pushed out $22,500.00 $5,940.50 26.4%
week profit/loss: 1210.25

Personal $20,226.00 $(6,246.16) -30.9%
week profit/loss: 200

Mistakes $13,735.00 $(13,735.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0

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  • Michael

    Whats the new price for Daily Profit mate?

  • SP will see a sharp increase (probably $49 a month). The Risk Free & Value will increase only slightly (probably to $39).

  • Andrew

    My week has been a complete disaster. I think I’m finally getting the idea that I have given far, far too much of my bank to GOWI.

    I agree that he will be a profitable tipster, but I put GOWI on a pedestal and assumed he would trump every other tipster I follow.

    This is entirely my fault – not Keith’s – but it’s an important lesson I’ve learnt. Took me long enough, eh?

  • That sucks mate,
    I was lucky and had more trust in other tipsters. While GOWI is individually the highest bet tipster I have right now, he is 11% of my bets (which is also probably too high). The need to spread risk and have that diversified portfolio was key for me. His loss barely impacted on my weekly result.
    No one Tipster should have such a significant impact unless you trust them implicitly. That’s why Sportpunter(across all his models) has 50% of my total bet amount.

    Hopefully a very valuable lesson learned and one you can bounce back from.

  • Guest

    Comparing my losses for the week to your profits is a real eye opener. You clearly have the much more balanced portfolio and that’s what I need to be aiming for. I have won enough this year to put me where you were at the start of your first year, so let’s just hope my graph for the next 3 years looks a lot like yours!

    I still need to learn a lot about leveraging my bank and how much to give to each tipster, but I’m a lot further along the learning curve than I was a year ago, when I thought following GOWI alone would make me a millionaire in the space of a few years.

  • Andrew

    Comparing my losses for the week to your profits is a real eye opener. You clearly have the much more balanced portfolio and that’s what I need to be aiming for. I have won enough this year to put me where you were at the start of your first year, so let’s just hope my graph for the next 3 years looks a lot like yours!

    I still need to learn a lot about leveraging my bank and how much to give to each tipster, but I’m a lot further along the learning curve than I was a year ago, when I thought following GOWI alone would make me a millionaire in the space of 5 years.

  • My portfolio still needs a lot of work to get right, but I think its weighted pretty well right now. It’s a tough nut to crack and I’m sure many have created much better portfolios. But for now it is working.

    I have no clue in my first 2 years, made so many mistakes, I’m still learning now. But if you look at the ClubGOWI website, you would assume making a million was a piece of cake.

  • Matthias

    Im really thinking about PCG … his advised odds are far from takeable (especially NHL, NCAAB, NCAAF)…plus his advised handicaps are almost 1,87-1,92 and by far not 1,95 or so, which he counts for his statistics… I dont think that he is profitable long term.

  • Agreed, thinking it doesn’t work for my timezone either. Will need to think about continuing after the NFL season.

  • Andrew

    I think the odds must be gone before the email reaches me. Some I can match, but I don’t think I ever managed to even see the advised odds on handicaps in MLB, for example.

    We have compared when we receive the GOWI email, so US customers could well have at least 10 seconds to place bets before I get the email.

    I do know guys making decent profits with PCG, so anyone who is thinking about could always try it for a month, as it isn’t exactly expensive.

  • Could be the case. But in such huge markets, not usually likely.

  • Matthias

    I have to disagree. Sometimes its not even possible to see odds on oddsportal.com or something like this when you look at the odds 10 minutes ago. Its not always the case, but its enough if it happens 1/10 times.

  • I can’t comment as I am rarely up when they come out. But recording fair odds is pretty simple and if people are complaining than it needs to be explained.

  • skyblue14

    Hi Steve, i was thinking about Dailyprofit, but could you please answer few questions before i sign up?
    1. As an european, i am only able to use sportpunter subscription, so could you please write a little bit about how the service is working (times, sending picks, some notifications? )
    2. What ROI and ROC could i expect from sportpunter without using any freebets or other promos?
    3. Which bookies are “reqiured” for sportpunter?
    Thanks a lot for now!
    PS: Thank you for your blog/page/… sometimes it is really eyeopening..keep up good work!

  • Hi mate,

    1. Early bets are released between 6:30-7:30 pm AEST, then morning picks are released 8-10am AEST. An email is sent linking to the website where the picks are.

    2. ROI will be anywhere from -2% to +5% over a season. We are looking for a 100% ROC each year.

    3. None, but as always, the more bookies you have, the better odds you will get and the more profit you make. If you don’t have access to many bookies then don’t waste your time betting at all.

    Hope this helped
    Cheers
    Steve

  • Matteo

    GOWI has just published his updated results up to Nov 30th. According to that he is up in the region of 65k for the 2014 year which if he is using 400 $ unit stakes equates to being up more than 160 units.
    I haven’t been a member for the whole year and have missed on some of his long term bets such as the McIIroy one but my results are way, way off for the worse. Has anybody achieved similar results or anything even close to it with him?

  • WOW, My bet unit was 400 for most of the season and I upped to 500 about 4 months ago.
    Let’s see my results.
    $779,471 bet, so close to 2,000 units.
    Profit of $14,186 (35 units profit)
    ROI 1.8%

    If anyone at all can back up the claim of 160 units profit then I will believe in Santa and his elves.

  • Matteo

    Yup, that’s more in line with what I have experienced. 1024 bets and a ROI of around 1%. I can normally get very close to his advised odds or sometimes even better them as I have access to some slow bookmakers, I would say I get no worse than 2% of his odds on average.
    I attach the graph from his website, hopefully you guys can see it.

  • Are you including the disaster December? As he has not.
    But I agree something isn’t at all right with his record keeping.
    A reason he has no play by play results or wanted SBC to proof his service.

  • Matteo

    Yes, sorry I was, if i do not include Dec then ROI is around 3% with 950 bets. Better but still far from his numbers.
    What is more puzzling to me is that when he did proof to SBC his results were in line with what was claimed on the site, which led me to believe his results and join his service…maybe he got lucky over that period and knowing that he couldn’t keep up with results decided to stop proofing, who knows.

  • Andrew

    Keith advises a lot of bets within a range of odds, for example, Arsenal to score over 1.5 goals 2.10-2.15. This isn’t a great example, but sometimes the range is much wider and I assume Keith’s results will always take the top quote.

    A lot of the top quotes are with European bookies I cannot bet with, meaning matching Keith’s results will be impossible. That doesn’t account for such a big difference, but it will certainly play a part.

  • 100% he takes the top odds he posts.
    If I recorded odds the way Keith does for my service, the ROI would be over 20%. It really has becomes a joke.

  • Mariano

    Just to add something else to the GOWI odds recording mess, in 2014 I’ve made 45u profit on 1830u of bets, so it’s close to 2.45%.
    This includes the “December massacre” (of which he recovered some last Friday), also the McIlroy bet but of course I’m not including some long term bets that are already lost (English football season bets).
    Oh, and I also have to say that during the World Cup I saved some money not following his advice because I’m a massive football (soccer) fan, I was watching every game and had my own opinion on that competition (for example I didn’t take his 3u bet on Brazil to win the tournament + other “World Cup winner” bets for a total of 5-6u I think).
    Yes, good results but definitely not even close to what he claims to win.

  • Yep, for someone who puts so much effort into writing pre match notes, I’m amazed at his completely dishonest record keeping. I have yet to find anyone who can claim a ROI anywhere close to his recorded one.

    Just another reason the tipster industry has such a bad name. People join services like this based on lies and then leave shortly after.

    Again, I will stay with the service as I’m happy with the close to 2% it will produce long term. I also have the added benefit of betting against his picks on certain leagues after recording my own data.