Oct 22nd – Oct 28th +$6,221.14

[dropcap]W[/dropcap]e had what is being termed black Saturday with the Soccer services this weekend. With well over $100,000 worth of bets it was going to be a make or break night, and with SP doing its usual awesome job during the week and then an early soccer win, I was sitting on -$30,000 for the season and was hoping the night panned out well and I would be back on my way towards parity. Nothings ever that simple with betting and after tallying up the results at 3am in the morning, I was now sitting at my biggest loss ever in any season. I was out to -$56,000 for the year and things were looking pretty grim. Two days later and I actually made a decent profit for the week. I’m sure you have all gone through the same thing many times. There is no point in ever trying to work out where you will be short term, it’s just impossible, I have an article coming tomorrow which should hopefully help you deal with these weekly or monthly losses a little better, I’m glad I started working on it last week, as it sure helped me on Sunday morning. Football betting really has to start earning it’s keep, this season will be pivitol, if I am still at a loss after 5 years then I will become very selective in which services I choose. Most will get the cut and I will be betting much less and more for the enjoyment then profit. I’m hoping it’s a decision I don’t have to make.

Ahh, Sportpunter. Where would I be without you. I know where, in a ditch somewhere outside a TAB begging for a few bucks to put on a multi. $12,600 profit over all SP models this week. NBL Totals has sucked badly, but that’s more then made up for with the Line bets. Totals lost $5,100 but Line bets made $11,200. Already being limited by the likes of Beteasy and I’m having to take much worse odds and lines just to get matched. The NHL totals continues to shine, but I’m sure like last season it will go in waves. Months of amazing profit, followed by a month of losses. I’m just glad it started with the profit part. $6,500 this week. This week also sees the start of the NBA, looking forward to another great first half of the season.

ClubGowi lost $1,200, Diamond edge lost $500, but PCG came back with $4,600 profit. I really hope the service turns around. Hopefully the NFL season and new NBA season change that. Jason Kelly Golf also lost $275.

Onto the Soccer. In total I lost $8,800. The loss was well over $25,000 until Sunday night. Once again there was more talk on Twitter on the best way to record odds. There were multiple bets on Exeter this week and I never even got close to get the odds on any service. Winabobatoo recorded the win at a laughable $3.50, Football Investor recorded at $3.08 and The Football Analyst had $3.10. The fact that Winabobatoo routinely records at odds 15% better and still makes about the same profit at the end of the year says a lot for the other 2 guys. Sadly the best I saw (remember I wake up at least a few hours after release), was $2.86. 10% worse odds then the lowest recorded ones. This win would have added well over $6,000 profit, but I stick to my rules and if I can’t get within 6-7% then I don’t bet. Many times this season I’ve bet a team for TFA or FBI, but not backed the same team for Winabob, as I am lucky to bet 50% of the bets he recommends. It’s one service I am 100% sure I would never subscribe to again. If you have every UK book open and bet under $50 and can bet the second the tips come out, then you might be able to match the odds. I have to commend TFA and FBI for how fair they are in comparison, but still feel a lot more can be down, and it seems Stewboss (FBI) feels the same. I’d take a service breaking even at Pinnacle closing lines over one showing 20% ROI at bullshit odds. I also believe the people who pay for tips are getting smarter and the first service to do this would easily fill up his yearly subscription limit.

Football Elite lost $3,500, Football Value made $1,400, TFA made $900, Winabob lost $3,200, and Football Investor lost $4,400. My own person picks made $250.

In the end, even after one of the worst Saturdays ever, I managed to make a profit this week. Really stoked with that result. Also with Horse betting making a recovery, October is shaping up to be a good month. Maybe the comeback is starting early this season.

Total Profit for the week was $6,221.14

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Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $2,072,369.93
Profit/Loss: -$33,723.94
POT: -1.63%
Bets Placed: 3137
Won: 1135
Lost: 1494
Half Payout: 31
Refunded: 477
Winning %: 43.2%
Total profit per day: $313,800.90 / 1581 = $198.48
Total Turnover: $16,415,113.30
Total ROI: 1.91%

NBL Totals $13,053.00 $(10,774.68) -82.5%
week profit/loss: -5076.68

NBL Line $37,425.00 $12,260.13 32.8%
week profit/loss: 11,184.23

SP MLB $255,254.00 $9,449.78 3.7%
week profit/loss: 64.35

NFL Totals $59,102.00 $9,335.96 15.8%
week profit/loss: -35.76

NHL Totals $25,029.00 $8,539.06 34.1%
week profit/loss: 6505.20

ClubGowi $268,663.00 $8,734.96 3.3%
week profit/loss: 1298

GOWI $8,932.00 $(1,841.00) -20.6%
week profit/loss: -2500

Diamond Edge $150,000.00 $1,922.00 1.3%
week profit/loss: -500

PCG $132,217.00 $(3,425.71) -2.6%
week profit/loss: 4583.50

Jason Kelly Golf $7,466.93 $(6,076.93) -81.4%
week profit/loss: -275

Betswot $7,463.00 $(5,708.00) -76.5%
week profit/loss: 0

FB Elite $25,250.00 $(3,687.50) -14.6%
week profit/loss: -3515

Football Value $18,000.00 $(435.00) -2.4%
week profit/loss: 1380

TFA 21 $78,109.00 $(5,614.30) -7.2%
week profit/loss: -668.30

TFA 41 $78,100.00 $(9,046.00) -11.6%
week profit/loss: -6042.50

6-21-31 $45,207.00 $1,375.72 3.0%
week profit/loss: 557.50

D1-D6 $24,500.00 $2,480.00 10.1%
week profit/loss: 2315

E1-E6 $6,000.00 $5,605.00 93.4%
week profit/loss: 4775

Mike Lindley $21,500.00 $(3,535.00) -16.4%
week profit/loss: -590

WINABOBATOO $91,000.00 $(11,225.00) -12.3%
week profit/loss: -2591

FBI combo $42,500.00 $3,757.00 8.8%
week profit/loss:-3075

FBI Euro $10,000.00 $(4,345.00) -43.5%
week profit/loss:-1345

Odds pushed out $5,500.00 $635.00 11.5%
week profit/loss: 70

Personal $3,075.00 $(986.55) -32.1%
week profit/loss: 253.45

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  • wah

    I also have to make a decision on windows. I bet smaller sit there with all the windows open and get the odds except with mike lindley bets. I really like the articles and mike’s attitude but……

  • Mariano

    You probably answered this before: what do you do when you have opposite bets by different services on the same event? Stay with the first one you took or take both ?

  • Very rare with the services I follow, but now I usually take Football Investor over TFA over Winabob over Gowi.

  • Terry

    Hey Steve,

    I’ve done some work on the Winabob stuff and I think you need to look at the service in a different way. I’ll send you an email about it or maybe post on the dailyprofit forum, but I’ve now had 5 winning sets of selections in a row. Which is great after starting off betting the same system as you and getting smashed. The Mike Lindley bets on the other hand, you can’t look at them any other way than as a tip to back them.

  • Mariano

    Well it already happened with FI and GOWI last weekend (and GOWI won his).
    And for me it happened on NBA already with two guys I follow. The problem is that in football, depending on what side you are betting, you might have the risk of losing both,
    Still trying to figure out what to do about it. I guess taking both is a little silly so probably should stay with who sent earlier…

  • Ilia Baskin

    It’s possible for both sides to have value if there is a big shift in odds before the game. I usually don’t bet the game at all when that happens unless the odds drift a ton in one direction.

  • Mariano

    Well, normally the move is not that huge in major football leagues.
    How do you decide not to bet the game at all if you get the bets from the tipsters separated by, let’s say, 24-48 hrs?

  • Ilia Baskin

    Yea, normally it’s not.
    I try my best to bet all tips asap so when that happens I just stick with the first bet, but I’m not too happy about it. Especially if its odds drifted since I bet it.
    No way around this I’m afraid.

  • Ilia Baskin

    Can you link me to your Argentine blog/service ?

  • Mariano

    Google Argentina Previews and you will find it (can’t put links here I think).

  • Jeff

    “Winabobatoo recorded the win at a laughable $3.50” – I subscribe to Winabob and find the odds quoted are totally achievable.

    Sure there are occasions when it has dropped slightly, but in equally the same measure (or more often) I achieve greater odds than advised.

    If you miss the odds due to being late it is not the fault of the tipster (who in this case if you read everything he has written), you will see he is a guy of 100% integrity … and I write that not because I know the guy, I am just a paying client, but I do see week in week out totally achievable odds

  • Tom (ProComputerGambler)

    Tom here from PCG. We’re up over 100 units for the year. We need to stop talking about “what has gone wrong this season.” Gambling is a grind; you need to stop overreacting to streaks and think more in terms of years.

    Thanks…

  • Buenos

    Who do you bet with? Asian firms or UK bookies?

    I would think his odds are more achievable with UK bookies if you can get on with them, which many of us can’t for more than a fiver.

  • Jeff

    I’m heavily restricted on 60% of UK bookies, tho can can still manage to get on with some. A lot of my bets with Winabob seem to be on Marathon.

    But my objection to the comment was an implication that Winabob were not being honest, whilst in fact if a punter knows the times the bets will be released and knows which bookies are likely to be needed and then still go ahead and sign up to the tipster …. it doesn’t strike me as fair that afterwards the punter complains and implies the tipster is doing something wrong, I suggest the answer lies closer to home.

  • Hey Jeff, welcome to the blog.
    As I have mentioned in previous posts, IF you are betting small and have UK books still open, and are very very quick, then yes, you can get these odds. But these are the top of the market odds and very early prices and therefore move very very quickly and rarely rebound to these levels.

    If you can bet with Marathon then I am very surprised as this book is known to close accounts after 1 winning bet. Whatever you are doing to continue betting here, keep doing it for as long as possible.

    I’ve never said he was not honest, I have stated those prices are there, but that one or two people can get them before they crash.

    I then compare his service to a few others I follow that bet in the same leagues and these guys are not recording those bookies odds and if they did their ROI would be over 20% a season.