Trail Files/Horse Racing Genius Update.

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  • JCog

    I’m really impressed by the response of Trial Files and HRG. Let’s hope it starts of trend of better transparency and odds recording.

  • time will tell. I will update again in 6 months.

  • Insidetheracinggame

    These blokes could sell ice to the eskimos Steve. I see a lot of public bullshit just sold here, they associate with plenty of people who have to defend their image day in and day out. They are fully aware of what they are doing to market their product and were alerted to this on twitter several times. The only reason you got a response is because you can draw a crowd, others just get blocked. Maybe if they publicly apologised on their twitter and it was put in front of their customer base you would believe them, but as a punter I look forward to an update in 6 months that says they haven’t changed. Lesson for you, don’t believe a word your told in the racing industry.

  • Luke Anders

    Hi Steve/readers,
    I posted a number of responses to your article yesterday. I attempted to give an outline of my personal experience of the HRG/MVP Genius/TTF services based on my dealings with them. I had incorrectly assumed that given there has been some collaboration of the HRG and ITT services, it was TTF team now providing tips for HRG. So, my apologies for not realising this was not the case. I can attest that HRG did notify all it’s customers of the change in tipster at the time. For which I thanked them for their honesty and transparency. I also incorrectly said 5-6 weeks ago instead of two months ago.

    On a number of occasions in response to yesterdays article, I believe I was defensive of the MVP/HRG service (which was noted by Steve). I felt it important to defend them, as there are so many fraudsters out there in the tipping game that when you actually find a genuine service, which in all my dealings over the last 2 years has been completely transparent, honest, timely and profitable, I didn’t feel it right to have them tarred with the same brush as other services. I couldn’t ask much more from such a service.

    I did note that my experience of TTF was limited, so was unable to provide feedback on them other than receiving tips recently which had been profitable which was too small a sample size to make a proper assessment. I also noted that there was a few alarm bells ringing for me in terms of some of their practices/recording. These concerns for the most part have been addressed. I’m happy with the service I’ve received from them so far. Their response has satisfied me. I will continue to use their tips. For me, having MVP Genius’ support instills me with a greater level of confidence that they (TTF) are above board, that’s how highly I rate MVP/HRG’s professionalism. Time will tell.

  • Insidetheracinggame

    Surely this shows you the professionalism of this company..

    http://horseracinggenius.com.au/trial-files-result/2014

    Look at yesterday
    1.5 units x 4.05 = 6.075. Minus 1.5 stake = 4.575
    then 4.575 – 0.35 – 0.75 – 0.40 = 3.075
    they have the day at profit/loss of 2.6

    Surely it’s not too hard, but hey their tipping would want to be better than their record keeping.

  • They have the win at 4.05 and the total of 2.6 checked out (2.55).
    My concern is the N/A for odds.

    Please continue to keep a record for me and let me know of any irregularities. If there continues to be problems, I will once again call them out and some real justification will be required.

  • Insidetheracinggame

    Yeah, I think their record might be confusing for people to follow but will monitor myself. Good to see a pick by pick record.

    The N/A price is certainly a concern. Yesterday they quoted $4+ on Twitter for their winner then were questioned about it and then said they got $3.70 (https://twitter.com/thetrialfiles/status/522612218416738305).

    It’s great they are picking winners, they are just a little sloppy when it comes to recording them which is a big concern now that they are charging (potentially misleading prospective customers).

  • Luke Anders

    It’s 1.5 units x 2.3 = +1.95. So the maths adds up.

    I haven’t seen the odds listed as N/A before. Only listed as N/A for yesterday’s tips under TTF’s tips, but is listed for HRG’s results.

  • Insidetheracinggame

    Yep my bad on the “Units Returned”. Just realised it includes stake.

  • Tage Poulsen

    I tried the P-calculator with 250 bets, odds 2 and your yield of 2.27%.
    The result is a p-value of 0.360.

    As far as I know this signifies that such a betting record has 36% chance of just be in profit by luck!!

    Your advice:
    “To know if a tipster is anything more then lucky we need at least 250 verified picks when the average odds are $2.”

    is dangerous, especially for newcomers to sports betting,

    Serious bettors look for a p-value of at most 0.01.
    More risk willing bettors accept 0.05.

  • Hi Tage,
    As we discussed over email, this is what was recommended by the author of the document as a minimum. It will at least give a beginner some information about how the tipster is going.

    We would all love to see thousands of recorded bets to the actual odds, but in many cases 250 bets could be a whole years worth of results.

    We do the best with what we can get.