Why every cent really does count (getting the best odds)

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  • Tony

    Great article Steve. when you put it like that it really makes sense to take a few extra minutes to get the best price. It will be interesting to see if your average is up a bit this time next year

  • steve jones

    Steve this a dead right. My whole business model is based on this. Betbrain is my best friend, even though I wouldn’t touch most of those books. Odd shopping is the main way I have managed a 7% return on turnover (of several mill) over the last few years.

  • steve jones

    All right odds shopping is only half. The other half is the mathematical model attempts to eliminate upset potentials amongst 1.15 -1.45 favourites. Bank management is a given, although playing with house money doesn’t hurt either.

  • wah

    Out of interest which of those books do you use and what is your model.
    I follow a lot of the same tipsters as Steve which is how I came across his blog and I have just had my first ever losing year (ever)

  • steve jones

    Two strategies, with emphasis on either finding value or beating the market (and combination of both). I don’t follow any tipsters. I would not be disciplined enough to get on in time at a price worth taking.
    Finding Value
    1.Trust in the wisdom of in the weight of (smart) money.
    2. Get value (preferably outlying) odds. If you can get very close the best odds on offer, pass up on the bet.
    3. Stick with a handful of sports that you have chosen to specialise in. Develop a learning, adjusting predictive model for each one. This is really just to reality check your identified value odds. It helps to refine the model for when you want to actually beat the market as opposed to picking off outlying odds.
    4. Stick to favourites (If you prefer to win 85% of the time than lose 85% of the time for the same result).
    5. Build in margin for error. Generally avoid lines, I don’t believe any predictive models are that good.

    Beating the market.
    Use the model developed to ID likely value at even the worst odds.

  • steve jones

    A large bank of pure profit helps too