$100,000 profit reached.
WOW WOW WOW
At 2:30am this morning I changed a p for pending to a y for yes in my spreadsheet on Kirsten Flipkens. I had bet $115 at odds of $12 and her win over Sam Stosur pushed my total profit to just over $100,000. Trumpets started playing, fireworks were exploding outside my window and a marching band trudged through my room before a supermodel popped out of a 6ft tall cake… OK, well most of those things may not of happened, but it sure did feel like it. I had hit the magic 6 figures and even though I was sleep deprived, a big smile spread across my face and a feeling of calm and relief surged through my body. Then it was straight back to work. This next $100k isn’t going to make itself.
The last 720 days have been a real journey, the amazing ups, the “o my god, what am i doing? gambling is going to send me to the poor house” downs, and the extremely boring sideways movements. I always try and say that I am in control of my emotions when it comes to my weekly profits, but who am I kidding. When I have a bad week it hurts and when I have a great week, I’m on a massive high. Along with Alcohol, gambling is my drug of choice. I have become a lot more detached from my results, but I doubt ill ever become totally unemotional towards the results.
It took 513 days to reach my first major goal of $50,000 and only 207 more for the next $50,000. Those first 513 days were filled with so many mistakes and bad money management calls from me, it’s a massive surprise I didn’t lose everything and that I’m still here today. The second $50,000 I have felt I know what I am doing now and have a lot of faith in the models I am following, it’s also very strange that my profit per day over the last 207 days has been $241, very very close to my stated goal of $250 a day.
So where do I even start breaking this all down. Where else but with a graph. If you don’t like graphs, then you better leave now.
Taking a very simplistic look at the graph, you can see that for the first year and a bit it didn’t ever break much further then the $40,000 mark. That first year felt like treading water, the initial enthusiasm at reaching $40,000 after such a short period of time quickly waned, and then it was months and months of wondering if this was really worth my time. Then when I was overseas and getting my monkey back at home to place my bets, everything went to shit. I left with the profit at $40,000 and a month and a bit into the trip he had managed to lose all my profit and then put me in the red for a further $8,000. I had to make some drastic decision while on holiday and it was Formbet which was the major culprit (I was also staking way to much on it) and it needed to go. I told him to stop following that and concentrate on the models I had much more trust in. Fortunately the US open started and the tennis model was just amazing over that tournament. I had been to the Aussie open a few times when betting on it and it has always ended in a loss, but I was at the US open and the profits were amazing. By the time I returned from my 2 and a bit months abroad, the profit was back to around $35,000. I am so glad I was not at my computer day after day as those losses piled up. To be honest, I’m not really sure I would be writing this now if i hadn’t taken that trip. It was when I got home that I decided I really needed to stop making stupid mistakes and concentrate on what had been making me profit and discard all the rubbish I was following purely to have something to bet on. I stripped down my portfolio and this I feel really helped to achieve what I have today. Since that day you can see the beauty of the graph, a sexy (can graph lines be sexy?) upwards trajectory.
Model by Model Breakdown
I’d first like to say a massive THANK YOU to Jonno at Sportpunter.com. His was the first betting site I ever came across, and over the years we have talked and become great friends, so much so, he will be joining me and my mates when we head to Vegas at the end of August. So disclaimer here, we are great friends, but I feel I am very honest when it comes to reviewing all models and when his models are not performing, I have no hesitation in saying so. He has helped with all my excel problems, any stupid questions I may have had and just been a great sounding board. Thanks mate.
This model is not actually Jonno’s, it is supplied by CRDOG. I stopped this year as there were some issues with release times and pinnicle prices, but looking at the betting history, I really shouldn’t have. 2012 seems to have been another great year. I really had no reason to quit as I had made $32,850.28 at 3.18% over the past year and a half. I will need to reassess my position in the coming weeks as I feel I may have left this one prematurely.
Baseball $444,047.01 $11,834.15 2.7%
Baseball Line $587,551.00 $21,016.13 3.6%
Ahh AFL, I know your sick of me talking about it, so just look at the numbers below. The only downer was the totals, which I should never have followed. I won’t be following these until they have shown a few years of steady profit. There are so many factors that work against it, needing to know the weather details before a match, and the fact that all the bookies price these up at 1.88 each side. H2H hasn’t had the best time of it, but I do have a much reduced Kelly on them as their strike-rate is very low. Jonno advised me a year ago that Line betting is where I would make most of my profit and he was not kidding. A total bet amount of $644,571.00 for a return of $59,341.34 with an incredible ROI of 11.49%.
AFL $106,057.00 $1,804.73 1.7%
AFL line $410,425.00 $73,171.91 17.8%
AFL Totals $128,089.00 $(15,635.30) -12.2%
This one has been really frustrating at times. It is the standout model alongside the AFL one, but can hit really rough patches that can last an entire year. I have been down $20,000 at one stage with Tennis before it went on an amazing run and got as high as $40,000 profit, but again this year, WTA has been terrible and ATP’s profit has not covered its loss. I will continue with it as I am still in profit, but I really do expect a bit more from this model.
Tennis – ATP $783,184.13 $33,076.24 4.2%
WTA – Tennis $809,342.00 $5,481.84 0.7%
Another really good model, but my god this was way too much work. I remember placing these bets on a saturday afternoon and it would take up to 5 hours to filter them and then place all the bets. My girlfriend was not happy at all. I had to give this up as the effort here was not worth the reward.
Soccer H2H $157,911.00 $5,491.83 3.5%
Over Soccer $95,159.00 $3,601.79 3.8%
Under Soccer $204,993.00 $(3,413.25) -1.7%
Never made any profit from this, Won’t ever follow it again. No idea how Jonno is so good at AFL and so terrible at NRL, I’m guessing because he is a Melbourne boy and just doesn’t understand NRL.
NRL $28,367.00 $(7,863.97) -27.7%
Another one that I just couldn’t make a profit on. This may be due to my terrible timing, but I wont bother with it anymore.
NFL $42,887.00 $(5,664.99) -13.2%
NFL Line $15,235.00 $(1,058.57) -6.9%
I really gave this one a good go, but each season just seemed to be about break-even. Another one not worth my time.
NHL – Totals $287,241.00 $(5,138.61) -1.8%
This is also a no brainer. The model is brilliant at totals and shit at H2H. I actually decreased my kelly on totals this year, If i had kept it at the first years amount the profit would have been double. I will continue with the totals next year without doubt and expect a very healthy profit.
NBL $50,926.00 $(8,743.99) -17.2%
NBL Totals $54,027.00 $7,116.71 13.2%
This is a tough one, the Line betting is from my first year betting, but this past season I didn’t bet it and it went amazing. Next season I believe i’ll follow all 3 and see how it goes. I also use the NBA data to place my own bets on a certain market which has proved to be very profitable and I will be scaling that up next season to see if it wasnt just a fluke this year.
NBA Line $26,303.00 $(1,910.74) -7.3%
NBA Totals $291,522.00 $3,248.59 1.1%
NBA H2H $72,076.00 $424.15 0.6%
Sportpunter College Ball
Can never get the lines or odds quoted so pointless to follow this.
College Ball $26,975.00 $(4,557.77) -16.9%
This was a real lesson and caused a real uproar when i posted my results and said I was not following the service any longer. In total I lost $24,200 follow Formbets many systems. I had joined as the service seemed to have a great history. The ease of setting a bot and going to sleep was also a big draw. But in the end it was partly my blame by staking to much and partly formbets for not being in my eyes a profitable service, I stuck with it for a good 6 months if not longer and it just did not live up to its previous results.
Golf $18,027.00 $(10,185.25) -56.5%
TOP3 $42,656.00 $5,634.00 13.2%
Lays $3,007.36 $(926.64) -30.8%
Value $10,500.00 $3,204.00 30.5%
Formbet $224,207.44 $(20,388.12) -9.1%
Yellow&Green $2,800.00 $(1,600.00) -57.1%
Another error made by me here. I started following his blog and his tips and only lost a small amount before giving it up. I then stumbled on his site again and he was offering an sms service, I joined, lost money and realised I should have done a lot more research before following someone, I remember asking if he could send me his previous history or any stats and the reply was, I never keep that info, as long as I’m up at the end of the month I’m happy. Let’s just say in hindsight I see how stupid I was.
Horse Racing $87,652.00 $(942.60) -1.1%
100k Horse $13,569.00 $(4,814.67) -35.5%
Oz horses $35,919.50 $(3,411.97) -9.5%
Another simple silly mistake. Following a member of the Sportpunter forum who would put up his tips. No fault but my own and I harbour no ill feelings towards Kiwi.
Kiwi $92,710.00 $(5,026.69) -5.4%
Horse racing Take 2
Another stupid mistake, following a brand new unproven system from a team that did have a really good system. The system was scraped after a few months and membership fees returned.
Horse take 2 $26,400.00 $(2,918.70) -11.1%
I’ll put these all into the one category. They are still a work in progress and I will be following them next season apart from formlabbalck. This is where I’m hoping a new profit stream will come from. Skeeve did not seem to happy with me as my results were not in line with his, but I did mention that I missed some very profitable weeks while travelling for soccer. Hopefully this year I won’t miss any bets and rake in the profit.
FB Elite $47,140.00 $3,515.55 7.5%
Skeeve $46,989.00 $1,814.59 3.9%
Football Investor$60,389.00 $(3,711.50) -6.1%
Strikezone $95,125.00 $2,060.20 2.2%
Formlabblack $66,835.00 $(2,631.87) -3.9%
Horse racing Take 3
Finally found a UK horse system that I think is brilliant, having many issues with getting on at the same odds, but if I can double my bank each year then I won’t complain.
New Horses $175,949.18 $32,902.48 18.7%
Followed this for a week, but it’s to much effort. Had to be at the comp at the exact time and would miss prices before they crashed.
Hugh Taylor $1,448.00 $12.00 0.8%
Wow, that was really really boring. For the 3 people who made it all the way here, thanks for visiting and posting comments. Makes me feel less crazy and that I’m not just talking to myself. Another thank you goes to my cousin who has been by my side doing the same thing for the past 2 years, always great to have a companion and it’s always fun to yell at players or teams together, and cheer on horses. I expect lots more entertaining times and hopefully much more profit.
Next week i’ll spell out my new bank and staking plans. I will be upping stakes as of July 1st.
The next major goal is off course $250k. I hope to see that magic number in about another year and a half.