August 26th – September 1st -$16,308.70
Boy am I glad to see the back of August. A month that was all downhill and ended up losing $42,220 at -9.41% ROI. The same period last year produced a $16,117 loss. Now most people would say “simple, don’t bet in August”. But 2 pieces of data does not a data set maketh. Let’s go back to August in year 3 and we made $47,093 at 16.72% ROI. It’s just a sad reality of betting that you will have horror months, probably horror quarters and likely at least 1 or 2 horror years. I’ll take the loss and hope that September is kinder to me.
In industry news, Crownbet has bought the entire user base of an illegal off-shore bookmaker (as the Australian Wagering Council like to call them). It all seems a little bit (well a lot) dodgy to me as apparently the owners of punting pal were related to the owner of Crownbet and the owner of Crownbet had a non-compete clause with Sportsbet at the time. This really is the wild west at the moment and it seems the bookies can do whatever they want. Any bookmaker can set up business in Vanuatu, build a customer base with sign up offers, refunds, great odds and not pay a cent to any sporting bodies, take in play bets legally and pay a tiny percent in tax. Once they get enough clients, they simply move them over to a “legal” Australian book and repeat.
My article last week about how I gamed the Betfair competition got some pretty decent feedback. I’ve heard from a few sources that the powers that be at Betfair were not that pleased with it. This really puzzles me as I believe they have missed a huge opportunity here. Betfair has always struggled to explain the concept to the average punter. I’ve sent hundreds of people to Betfair and once they get the concept of laying, liability and so on, they are amazed and start using the exchange more and more. Betfair have always said they are for the smart gambler. Well what better role model than someone who has made a fair bit from gambling and someone who was clever enough to break down a competition and win it? Ahh well, it’s not my job to get them more customers. Betfair was built on arbers and if they ran that same competition today, they would generate 10-50x the turnover as people now know the best way to win it.
If I find time this week I will explain how I gamed the Tattsbet (Ubet) competition and won that trip to the Superbowl. Now that I have given away my secrets it will be much harder to win any upcoming competitions, but I think I’m smart enough to figure it out.
Finally onto the “sell my soul” and take on sponsorship post from the weekend and a fairly surprising result. 138 votes and an exact 50/50 split. I really thought the majority would say go for it. We are used to banners on every single site we go to and now don’t even notice them, there’s also ad blockers that can be used. It seems people really do hate the bookmakers and would prefer to keep the site clean and not get more helpful content. It’s a tough one for me, as I do want to write more, but time really is money.
Onto this weeks results and Sportpunter had a shocker. AFL lost $7,450, NRL lost $950 and MLB continues its slide with another $6,800 loss. Such a frustrating month for the service.
Dailyprofit members didn’t do too bad with a tiny loss. It’s bound to pick up again, we just need to get through these periods. I concentrate way too much on the SP side of things, and emails from VIP subscribers always brighten my day. I had sent an email apologising for getting the bets out late and had a few members email and say “you can do whatever you want after a day like Saturday”. As I don’t check on the Value & Riskfree results, I assumed most would be having a poor week. But the VIP members had all made over 10 units profit on Saturday. It’s a shame the VIP service is only for Aussies.
A month I soon hope to forget. But now that Spring has sprung we can hope for happier days. Positive mentality and all that rubbish. AFL will be very interesting this week with whole teams being rested. Hopefully the player based model makes a comeback. See you all on Thursday.
Total Loss for the week was $16,308.70
Stats Year 6
Total bet amount: $866,152.00
Bets Placed: 710
Half Payout: 9
Winning %: 41.6%
Total profit per day: $372,030.67 / 1889 = $196.94
Total Turnover: $22,752,184.30
Total ROI: 1.64%
AFL H2H $75,090.00 $(185.47) -0.2%
week profit/loss: -3090
AFL Line $262,522.00 $8,219.15 3.1%
week profit/loss: -4349.01
NRL $57,750.00 $(6,058.23) -10.5%
week profit/loss: -927.50
MLB Totals $300,450.00 $(5,943.42) -2.0%
week profit/loss: -6794.44
Jason Kelly $4,265.00 $(4,265.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -350
Betswot $2,925.00 $(236.80) -8.1%
week profit/loss: -300
Odds Pushed Out $11,500.00 $351.00 3.1%
week profit/loss: 208.50
Personal $147,243.00 $(9,402.06) -6.4%
week profit/loss: -706.25
Mistake $1,750.00 $1,760.75 100.6%
week profit/loss: 0