Feb 13th – Feb 19th -$957.32

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8 Responses

  1. Mike says:

    Great blog.

    How did you lose with the ATP bets when Sportpunter’s official results show a profit through this period?

    Do you use different overlays to those suggested?

  2. admin says:

    Thanks Mike,
    I started my weeks betting for this blog on a Tuesday. So it would not take into account the first round, that would have been included in the weeks before result. I also do not bet any odds under $1.30 and my overlay is 15% for probs 10-50% and 5% for 50-100%. In regards to odds, i usually get the same or better.

    Hope this helped.

  3. Danny says:

    Great blog and well done for sticking at it this year.

    I was planning on subscribing to XX Draws but when I questioned the owner Cassini he admitted he has been booking all his wins without taking any Betfair commission off. As a result his ‘profits’ are badly overstated. Also the previous year’s results are not well recorded to put it mildly. After doing some research into his selection process I have come to the conclusion that after the BF comm is taken off his edge is very small, one percent at best so I won’t be investing.

    Just wondered what your thoughts are. Isn’t it better to stick to services that have an independently audited track record?

  4. admin says:

    Hi Danny, thanks for the comment.

    I wasn’t aware that the results were in fact betfair with no commission taken off. I know Cassini bets early in the week and puts a few extra ticks on and usually gets matched.

    Having a look at his last table (Jan 21st) for the 4 models I follow he states he is up 15.96 points. Which should be $7980 profit for me. I am actually down $2051 currently. A $10,031 discrepancy. The last few weeks have not been great so this could be part of it. I will wait for the next table to be released before checking again. But it does not look good.

    Thanks for bringing this to my attention. I guess I have been the independent auditor for the service this season.

  5. Danny says:

    Sorry to hear this. I’ve been through some of his published records and it is easy to see how much difference the comm makes. This is because of the large amount of selections and wins.

    I wish I could re-state it all but he doesn’t publish a lot and I’m not too clever with excel. I think you would get a shock if you did it though.

    Take Norwich Everton on Sat. Cassini booked it at 3.60. However there was not much 3.60 available. Say you took 3.55 and paid commish at 5% that’s 3.37. Very different. Multiply over hundred’s of bets and it will have a big effect.

  6. admin says:

    Danny, I have just looked at the results on the XX draws website and they are updated to just the 12th Dec 2012. But my odds are a minimum of 10c worse then those recorded, which changes things a lot. I really should have done more due diligence on this before following with such large stakes.

    This is a flaw of mine as I like to jump in and start betting, but I really need to do a lot more research on any new model I start to follow.

    After a win last night, I am -$500 for the season following the main and extended picks and the U 2.5 for both as well. That is -1 unit.

    I will continue to follow the model until the end of the season and will compare results and the long term viability of the service then.

    This is very disappointing as even though services such as Skeeve and FB Elite are having terrible seasons, at least they make sure the recording of their odds are fair.

    I will contact Cassini and see if he would be willing to talk about the matter here.

  7. Cassini says:

    Hi Steve – Danny seems to be under the impression that this is all something of a revelation, which is surprising as he claims to have read the prospectus – which is really just a fancy name for an FAQ. I state quite clearly in there that:

    The prices quoted will be those that should be available on the Betting Exchanges. If the draw price is
    3.45 to Back and 3.5 to Lay at the time I send out the selections, I will suggest 3.5. This means that I
    suggest placing a bet asking for 3.5 rather than taking the 3.45 that is available. The draw price seldom
    shortens significantly, and if your money is in place early enough, more often than not, you will be
    matched at your asking price. If other subscribers have acted on their e-mail ahead of you and driven
    the price down by a tick (.05), the draw is still value. At a strike rate of 32.4%, a price above 3.0 is still
    great value, but I would recommend asking for a price more often than you take one, because those .05s
    add up over a season and make a big difference. For record keeping, I will use the price at which I am
    able to get matched, usually on Betfair.

    No secrets there. Commission is an individual issue, I am on 50%, others may be zero or close to it, and (again from the prospectus) “At least one subscriber uses the XX Draws to mitigate the Betfair Premium Charge” as well as myself. I used to add a disclaimer to the FTL table about commission and may well add it back in since some new readers don’t take the time to read all the posts it seems.

    http://green-all-over.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/creative-accounting.html

    The draw prices I record are all those at which I am matched – I actually took a screenshot of the 3.6 Norwich City v Everton game mentioned above on Saturday but people tend to ignore evidence when it doesn’t suit them. Think of anyone who is religious!

    If I am getting 3.6 and recording that price, then clearly there will be a big difference over a season if someone else is taking 3.4. I can’t help that. Out of interest, what price did you get on this match?

    What is indisputable is that so far this season I have sent out a total of 111 winners from 358 selections – implied odds 3.23 by my calculations. That is all I sell my selections on – their record over four seasons.

    As I mentioned earlier, I am not a tipster. The reason I sell my selections is that it is a lot of work to generate the selections each week, and sharing with others doesn’t hurt me.

    All in all, while it’s not unexpected, it’s quite disappointing to see how much negativity there is in the betting world. It’s something that Ian Erskine has written about before, and while it is always good to maintain a healthy dose of skepticism, I think when someone has been around for as long as Ian and myself have been, it’s not unreasonable to assume that the longevity is because we have been successful.

    One final comment on the XX Draws Service – and again to quote from the prospectus – “I’m not doing this for the money, and losses will hurt me more than any subscribers. Quite honestly, I enjoy the challenge of finding value in the betting markets. Football is not an easy sport to make money from. It’s hugely popular, and the statistics are studied by millions. Finding value is not easy, but I believe that I have found an edge with these selections, at least for the time being. Backing the draw is unfashionable, but that is exactly why there is value. No one watches a game cheering for the draw, so it is under bet. I love goalless matches – I call them the ‘perfect’ draw. The supposed success of “Lay The Draw” as a system also works in our favour. Plus, in a match where the two teams are equally fancied, money comes in on both teams, yet while logic should mean that the draw price
    shortens, it rarely drops below 3.15 (one end of season match in 2011 was priced at 3.05 in France). If
    the price is under 3.0 as is sometimes the case in Serie A towards the end of the season, I ignore these.
    By offering these selections, I am not hurting myself. As mentioned, the draw price is very robust, and
    because the ratings are mine, my bets will be first in the queue anyway!”

    This reply went on a bit longer than I intended (basketball is on TV) and I may well repeat most of this as a blog post.

  8. admin says:

    Hi Cassini,
    Thanks for the very thorough reply and sorry for the slow response.

    I must admit, when i read the FAQ, i missed the fact that commission was not taken into account and I based my stakes and all other assumptions on the thought that it was.

    My commission is at 3% as I rarely use Betfair, and that will affect what my final year profit will be. When you release your bets for the week, I usually use betbrain to find the best price and usually can find better then the current BF price, if not I leave a lay on the market and check on it just before the game. I would say half the time my 1 tick higher odds get matched and a few times the price has gone down a fair few ticks.

    I can understand that my results will be slightly different to yours as you will be getting in first. I would love to get a list of every bet this year and your recorded odds so I can compare them to mine. If you also have the U2.5 prices that would be great.

    For the Norwich game, my odds were 3.47 at Pinnacle.

    As of March 5th I am $1,143 in profit, which is just over 2 points. I follow the XX draws and extended and also bet the U2.5 for both. I believe the high was about $13,000 profit in December before the latest run of losses.

    I understand the draws will have long losing runs and am committed to finishing the season and comparing my final results with those recorded. I still believe it will be a profitable model for me to follow, but if the difference is over 5% then it might be an issue.

    I have always liked the model as it is simple to understand why it would work and usually takes very little time to place the bets.

    I’m hoping for a turnaround in the coming weeks and to be nicely in profit by the end of this season.

    Thanks
    Steve

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