Horse Racing – a new avenue

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4 Responses

  1. Matthew Trenhaile says:

    Hey Steve,

    Every so often I head over to racing-index and enter in to their proofing filters the following: Last 3 years, Win only, level stakes (not tipster advised stakes) and Betfair SP ticked (5% commission). All I am looking for is someone who to level stakes and only using Betafir SP can beat 5% commission with win only horse bets. Not many pass the test and even less by a significant margin.

    The best area to target for Betfair SP is the larger priced horses (10.0+) so you can the add SP filter of minimum 10 in the odds which then gives you more services which would have given a reasonable return with some uncomfortable strike rates (5% – 7%). You really can’t afford to miss a single bet with these (maybe can smooth the run with in-running lays at 2.0 for stake and then full green at 1.10 but this is obviously a psychological measure not a value optimum).

    You can improve the strike rate by dropping the odds minimum to 5/1. The essence behind this is that with UK racing odds terms being 1/5 or 1/4 then any horse priced above the EW break even point will see more EW bookie money and less exchange win only money not to mention those who back EW then lay the win on the exchange. Anyway you get an interesting de-coupling in the win market where you actually increase your value by backing EW tipped horses win only on exchanges and Betfair SP actually exagerates this with the way they cross bets to generate their SP prices. Supposedly there are other inherent inefficiencies with odds on horses in a variety of a different class races but I have never been convinced.

    My dream is that all tipster of sports are proofed to the Pinnacle closing line and all racing tipsters are tipped to Betfair SP for UK races and to 1 unit level stakes (are you reading this SBC?). Pros would no that anything near break even or better could then be easily beaten by getting on early and hitting the odd soft bookie when they can.

    Another racing alternative is to find a tipster who tips in the Asian racing tote pools (a long time home of mathematical system bettors and syndicates). I believe some of them are a bit of pain to get into or at least used to but I am sure getting on the Honk Kong Jockey Club and Japanese pool is easier than it used to?

    Those seem like the restriction free options allowing for growing and large stakes. Anyway love the site and I will be interested to see which of the many strategies that the NSW bookies will use to protect their bottom line going forward (Increased over-rounds, deposit/withdrawal fees etc)



  2. Steve says:

    Hey Matthew,
    thanks for all that info. I agree that proofing to Pin closing lines for sports and BF SP for Horse racing is the only real way to proof a tipster. The problem is that 99.9% of tipsters would then show a loss and would not be able to sell anything. There is a reason this is not a popular way to proof.

    But your right, it would show that they are beating the market and then someone like me would know that I could easily achieve the stated ROI, instead I have to automatically halve their ROI to see what might be possible if they honestly record their odds.
    Sadly most people are idiots and don’t bother to check anything anyway, they see that this tipster has made profit and jump right in. Most of the blame really falls on them and when they start complaining about losing, well I don’t really feel that bad for them.

    The new NSW rules are going to be interesting, and I have no doubt the bookies will do everything they can to protect their profit. Luckily there is a fair bit of competition around and a few of the easy things they would have done (like increased over-rounds), would just see people move to another bookie. But we will see a lot more profiling of customers and segmented customers with different rules applied to how they use the site.

  3. Luke Anders says:


    Where can I find past closing Pinnacle lines and past Betfair SP’s, or is it a matter of recording these as you go?

  4. Steve says:

    I use oddschecker for Pin, No idea about Betfair SP

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