Mar 6th – Mar 12th +$18,177.17
I really don’t know how to describe this week. On Sunday night I was hoping to be back at -10k. That would have been a win for me the way things had gone on Saturday. Then I wake up to winner after winner at huge odds. It has been by far the weirdest weekend of results and tough luck followed by all the luck in the world. It reiterates that I should never concentrate on one or two matches. After 2 and a half years if I watch a match I still get involved and the win or loss hurts. Very silly of me, but something I will need to work on. You see a very healthy weekly profit above, but the weekend was anything but positive.
This weekend was one of the biggest in a long time. With over $100,000 bet, with all of my sports overlapping, this period is a very busy one for me.
Let’s start with Saturday afternoon. All the AFL NAB cup games were being played. There were once again some very large bets on some teams as a heap of players were missing from their opposing teams. Things were looking great at half time, with all the big bets looking like easy wins. Then one game lost to a goal on the buzzer, then another lost by less then a kick and to top it off the final game lost the line by 0.5 points with a goal with 15 seconds to go. It was a cruel blow that cost a total of $12,000. How different things could have been. Luckily the two later games went onto win which salvaged some of the losses. At the end of the day AFL was down $6,500. Last weeks great results just covered this loss. I feel the bets once the season starts will be a lot less then these as teams will be at full strength and the model won’t throw up massive numbers. I still think the model did great and saw some value, it’s just a few kicks went against us. Can’t wait for the season to start in 2 weeks.
This took the total profit down to just $3,000 and then we moved into the night and all the soccer games. I had been working all day and had to rush to get bets on. Next season I will be dropping Skeeves multi’s for the simple fact that I can only get the bets on at 1 bookie and their odds are always rubbish. I have no idea how anyone is still able to get these bets on. Unless it is a Blue Sq double, which allows me to bet it at Pinnacle, then there is just no chance to get good odds. Skeeve ended up down $3,200 on the night (a result that officially was worse, but I’ll talk more about that soon). This season for Skeeve the results for me are much better then what they really are due to bets not being matched and them all losing.
Anyway, so here I am at 1:30am, hurriedly placing bets when Betfair goes down. I have a big number of bets waiting to be matched and now have no idea what they are and what amount has been matched. I think, surely they will be back up before the games start. I continue to place all other bets but 2am rolls around and the games start and betfair is still down. Once it finally comes back up, I have missed a large number of bets which obviously go all onto win, the exception being the Skeeve bets. I also had a bet against PSG at odds of $21, only 30 of the 375 had been matched and PSG are down 1-0 at halftime. Luckily for me, PSG end up winning the game, but that single win would have hurt so much. Betfair apoligise the next morning by paying back commission on all UK bets, a total of $23 for me. What about the hundreds of euro bets I placed? nope, bad luck. I wake up in the morning and it isn’t a total disaster, only losing about $4,000 for the night, but I’m back into negative territory and the way the week has been going I know I’ll be staying there.
I head back into the office on Sunday and forget to place the early NBL bets. The total wins by 0.5 points and the line by 1 point. I would have made $3,500 on these bets, but I know it’s a horrible week and accept that it’s my own fault and nothing is going to go right this week. After another long work day, I head home and place the remaining $20,000 worth of Soccer bets for Sunday night.
Waking up Monday morning I know I have some big bets on long odds and check my Iphone. The biggest is $1875 on Real Sociedad at $7.04. They are 1-0 up but still with 30minutes to go. I fall back asleep not excited at all, as the Euro model does this all the time. The long shot goes ahead and then the game usually ends in a draw. Last week I said:
We shall start with the losers. This week it was The Football Analyst Euro systems. Combined they lost $5,000. So far this season $170,000 has been bet for a return of $400. But I see value in these systems. Many times I have had a lot of money on some very very long shots and they have come very close to winning. It will take just one or two good wins and this model will look great at the end of the season.
I love being right, and so quickly too. Sociedad held on for the win, along with a heap of other long priced winners in the Euro league. In total it made $22,343. Graeme who runs the service had said he would be scrapping the model and trying to improve it for next season. I say Don’t you dare touch it. It has been threatening most weeks to produce a week like this and finally it has succeeded. With a few months left and another week like this, it will have matched my expectations.
So that’s my weekend. Terrible luck and then a major redemption. The total profit for the year is now at it’s highest peak of close to $30,000. A long way off the $250,000 I was expecting, but a hell of a lot better then the -$43,000 it was at just a month and a half ago. This is the way it has gone for years, treading water for months and then a major climb. I can expect some sort of correction in the coming months, but hope this climb isn’t over just yet.
I’ll quickly go over each models profit and loss.
The losers this week were AFL with -$6,500, NBL -$150, XX Draws -$900, Combo FI -$330, and Skeeve with -$3,200.
The winners were ATP with $2,400, FB Elite $2,300, TFA Established $1,200 and TFA Euro with a whopping $22,300.
This week also saw the start of the NRL season and as I like to watch the games, I will be following the On The Punt tipster this year. This week started well with $900 profit.
So another chapter added to this crazy story. Last week my predictions were not far off, so I’ll make another one now. A profit of $9,350. Let’s see how close I get.
Total profit for the week was $18,177.17
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $2,601,200.91
Bets Placed: 4,146
Half Payout: 2
Winning %: 41.6%
Profit per day: $144,888.70 / 986 = $146.94
AFL H2H – SP $32,973.00 $9,475.85 28.7%
week profit/loss: 407.50
AFL Line – SP $179,327.00 $(13,544.06) -7.6%
week profit/loss: -6859.98
ATP – SP $335,728.00 $5,710.85 1.7%
week profit/loss: 2427.15
OTP NRL $2,500.00 $892.50 35.7%
week profit/loss: 892.50
NBL Totals $108,595.00 $(5,618.86) -5.2%
week profit/loss: -720
NBL Line $64,317.00 $1,505.03 2.3%
week profit/loss: 562.50
XX Draws $54,000.00 $(9,485.00) -17.6%
week profit/loss: -2000
XX Draws Under $54,000.00 $(5,049.50) -9.4%
week profit/loss: -105.50
XX Extended $113,500.00 $12,561.00 11.1%
week profit/loss: 375
XX Extended Under $113,194.00 $2,203.50 1.9%
week profit/loss: 819.50
FB Elite $222,819.00 $(15,394.97) -6.9%
week profit/loss: 2340
Skeeve $130,889.00 $(10,410.04) -8.0%
week profit/loss: -3177.96
Combo FI $192,229.00 $23,760.50 12.4%
week profit/loss: -333
6-22 $61,600.00 $3,330.50 5.4%
week profit/loss: -37.50
7-21 $96,110.00 $6,099.25 6.3%
week profit/loss: -982.50
7-22 $42,060.00 $1,771.50 4.2%
week profit/loss: 292.50
8-21 $45,875.00 $4,334.13 9.4%
week profit/loss: 1267.50
8-22 $27,388.00 $31.63 0.1%
week profit/loss: 667.50
E1-E7 $55,580.00 $1,695.26 3.1%
week profit/loss: 5609.50
E2-E6 $61,912.00 $8,526.14 13.8%
week profit/loss: 5135
E2-E7 $32,250.00 $5,837.26 18.1%
week profit/loss: 6064.50
E3-E6 $24,750.00 $3,250.50 13.1%
week profit/loss: 2580
E3-E7 $13,875.00 $3,472.50 25.0%
week profit/loss: 2955