Sep 18th – Sep 24th -$15,007.08
Sometimes I really hate betting. You have slow steady growth for a good period of time and then in just a few weeks all those gains are taken away and then some. It can be extremely brutal at times and there’s nothing to do but laugh at how everything can go wrong at the exact same time. I was hesitant about Soccer starting again and I guess I could see what was to come. A horrendous start to the season and 3 years of work are looking shaky once again. A real turnaround is required quickly or drastic steps will need to be taken to protect the bank I have built up. My confidence in Soccer betting is at an all time low.
With only 1 week left for the AFL model I can no longer rely on it for some much needed profit. $5,500 was added this week, which somewhat helped me stay under another $20,000 loss. ATP also helped with just shy of $2,100 profit. NFL Totals also made $300 profit. With the NRL season ending soon, the OTP NRL picks lost $1,750.
Baseball lost $5,200 this week and that’s enough for me to say goodbye to it for the season. There are a number of reasons for stopping early. Firstly, it’s going terrible. Secondly, I am off on my cruise tomorrow and it will be difficult to place bets daily. Thirdly, I have come to the conclusion that the totals model is excellent, but only for CRDOG and the first person to place bets. This person has a bot that places bets before anyone else has a chance. For everyone else this model is at best break-even. The H2H model is better and prices are more stable, but dogs have not been barking this year. I will probably continue next season with just the H2H bets.
In the Golf, we missed out on two winners on the European and PGA tour. So close but no cigar and a $925 loss.
Onto Soccer, what can I say. I don’t usually swear but FUCK it’s shit. The one positive if you can call it that was the fact that FB Elite didn’t make a loss. He made a whopping $650 profit. Combo FI lost $500. But it was the big two again that failed miserably. Let’s first talk about Skeeve, after just the other week saying he was going to down stakes he does quite well last week and the next week is back to full stakes and loses them all. A $4,800 loss and the excuses were inexcusable. Now he is saying that it is always the case that the first half of the season is terrible, if that’s the case then why did he not do this analysis before and realise he has no clue early in the season. We are now stuck once again with the hope of a good second half, but what happens when it ends up being as bad as the start? I don’t mind (well I do) losing the money, but I really hate the excuses. If they were valid then fair enough, but in my worthless opinion they are just crap. Really not sure what to do at the moment, but will continue to ride it out and see what happens, as always, will only stop if the bank goes to zero. Onto an even bigger loss for TFA, I have just combined all the models I follow into one as it was getting too time consuming to update them all each week. This weeks loss was over $10,000 for the second week in a row. At this rate the bank will be dead in the next month or so. Surprisingly I still have some confidence in TFA, only because I see the results and that we are betting value. Value is pointless if they all lose, but if it were for a bit of luck, I could easily be sitting on a small loss. I can see this model turning things around in quick fashion and really hope it does. If it doesn’t then I will be as harsh with TFA as I am with Skeeve. Lets hope that both perform so well over the coming months that they can tell me to shut the fuck up for writing such horrible things about them.
So that’s the end of another terrible week and the end of my America trip. I’m currently sitting in a hotel in Vancouver and tomorrow I board a cruise ship to take a 24 night cruise back to Sydney. The internet on these ships are so slow and so expensive, so I will need to hope they are good enough for me to place bets. Until next week.
Total loss for the week was $15,007.08
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $750,452.00
Bets Placed: 1,102
Half Payout: 0
Winning %: 40.0%
Total profit per day: $180,028.07 / 1182 = $152.30
Total Turnover: $10,500,281.53
Total ROI: 1.71%
AFL H2H – SP $24,455.00 $4,135.20 16.9%
week profit/loss: -540
AFL Line – SP $181,128.00 $39,832.67 22.0%
week profit/loss: 5939.03
ATP – SP $117,477.00 $6,352.71 5.4%
week profit/loss: 2097.87
FB Elite $8,000.00 $(2,980.00) -37.3%
week profit/loss: 650
Skeeve $26,400.00 $(10,645.80) -40.3%
week profit/loss: -4800
Combo FI $1,000.00 $(110.00) -11.0%
week profit/loss: -500
TFA $68,821.00 $(20,383.50) -29.6%
week profit/loss: -10,320.50
OTP NRL $31,750.00 $3,419.50 10.8%
week profit/loss: -1750
MLB H2H $145,151.00 $(21,145.28) -14.6%
week profit/loss: -5288.86
MLB Totals $113,480.00 $(1,522.35) -1.3%
week profit/loss: 120.56
NFL Totals $24,117.00 $(2,611.17) -10.8%
week profit/loss: 309.82
NP Win $6,098.00 $(1,505.00) -24.7%
week profit/loss: -925
NP Place $1,975.00 $269.00 13.6%
week profit/loss: 0
NP trades $600.00 $(600.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0