Feb 27th – Mar 5th +$24,206.63

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11 Responses

  1. Danny says:

    Wow congrats Daily25!

    Very interesting that you say AFL has contributed two thirds of your profits. Would it be possible to give a breakdown of the others sometime, like at the end of the year? I have wondered if soccer is not that profitible over a lot of bets because it is too well followed and that there may be better opportunities in other sports.

  2. admin says:

    Soccer has done amazing the past month. Since Feb 1st it has made $35,000. Since July 1st 2012 it has made $14,300. I was expecting a hell of a lot better to be honest. Per model I was hoping to make between 30-75k, I follow 5 models, so 150 – 375k. Nowhere near this number.

    The other issue is that a number of these models disagree with each other and it is not uncommon for me to bet on all 3 results in a game.

  3. Pawn_pt says:

    Finally!! I do not know If I could handle for that long without results… I would be questioning myself all the time and would end changing something eheh, but you kept your head on your shoulders and never quit fighting back the cold streaks!

    Good job and good luck!

    Cheers,

  4. admin says:

    Thanks mate. I was constantly questioning my staking amounts on each model and still feel they are wrong. It still isn’t over, with streaks of + or – $20k a week, I’m not out of the woods yet.

  5. David says:

    If you’re betting on all 3 results in a game then aren’t you just giving money to the bookies?

    Ever looked closely at these situations to see if you should be following one of the models over the other?

  6. admin says:

    Hi Dave,
    There are usually different amounts on each bet. So there might be 2,000 on one and 500 on the other two results.

    I really should work out a mathematical way that allows me to place just the one bet, but have not figured it out yet.

    I also feel that I am not doing each model justice by following it fully if I was to bet on only 1 outcome.

    But it is something I will seriously look at at the end of this season.

  7. Skg says:

    Hey Steve

    It would depend on how confident you are with regards to the predictions put forward by each of the models. Placing two bets can be a hedge against a less likely result, but when you’re betting all three results all you’re doing is giving the bookmakers a free hedge. You might still make a profit out of it if the longer odds hit, or when the largest bet hits (depending on your bet structure across the three bets), but the expected value of that sort of betting setup should never be on the good side of zero.

    I’d suggest taking a look back over your database and examining your overall equity from when you’ve taken a bet across win/draw/loss on the one game, just to confirm to yourself that it’s a loss making play. Even if you are coming out slightly ahead, your results should be far worse than if you’d just dropped the bet with the lowest overlay.

    Skg from Sportpunter

  8. admin says:

    Hi SKG,
    Your right and I knew from the start of the season these were probably going to be losing plays. But I do have confidence in all but 1 of the models. After I get rid of that 1 model, I will only be betting on two outcomes and there will not be so many cross over bets.

    There was just the one overlapping bet this week.
    Getafe v Atl Madrid. The game ended in a draw.
    I had
    2000 on Getafe @ 4.2
    500 on Draw @ 3.49
    500 on Atl Madrid @ 2.08

    Loss was $1,255.
    As I won’t be betting the draws next season, there will be no bets on all three results, but still a lot on two. At the end of the season I will take a good look back over the results.

  9. Skg says:

    Just looking at that bet

    If Getafe hits, your profit is 5.4k
    If the draw hits, your profit is -1.225k
    If Atl Madrid wins, your profit is -1.96k

    Your two most likely outcomes are giving you huge losses, when you take all the bets into account. Even if Getafe was undervalued by the bookmakers, at best you’re going to be running at 3-10% equity on a long shot bet like that over time. Lets be generous and say you’ve got 10% equity with that bet, so that every time you bet, you have an expected return of 200, betting on Getafe alone. In a ludicrous world, lets assume we also have 10% equity on the Draw and 10% on the Atl Madrid. No matter what happens in these circumstances, your expected return isn’t ever going to come close to covering your losses in your hedging bets, under the best possible set of assumptions.

    I could do the maths to demonstrate it properly, or write a far more eloquent paragraph on that point, but I’m tired and it’s 1am, so you’re going to have to excuse me.

    There’s nothing wrong with a good hedging strategy, it’s potentially a good way to lock in a bit of equity – in fact, I had been considering developing a hedging model to go with Jonno’s AFL predictions, but at this stage I don’t really have enough data to go off. But just taking a bet each way is just giving the bookies money.

    That said though, this has actually piqued my curiosity a little bit, to the point where I’m now wondering exactly how much your overall outcome has been affected by intersecting models, and, on another front, if any cluster analysis (or more general data analysis) could be found to see if there was either an optimal bet, or an optimal combination of bets, when your tipsters were suggesting each of the 3 ways. I can’t just say “hey, send all your data over to me”, but if you’d like to chat about it let me know.

  10. admin says:

    Hey SKG,
    would love to chat about it as my maths knowledge is lacking. Would be happy to send my data to you. Can you email me at admin @ daily25.com
    Cheers

  11. SKG says:

    Hey Steve – sent you an email a few days ago with regards to this post, just sending a message here as well in case it got caught up in your spam filter or whatever.

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