Feb 27th – Mar 5th +$24,206.63
What a relief. Back into profit for the first time in over 6 months. February and the start of March have been the stuff of dreams. The last 33 days has seen a $45,000 profit. That has pushed me to +$10,000 for the year. There were a large number of games this week with large bets leading 1-0 with not long to go ending up drawing. If these teams had held on, I would be talking about that $50,000 week I alluded to a few posts ago. The bet that pushed me back into profit was my fist AFL bet of the year. The preseason cup has started and the new player based model looks a real beauty.
It really does feel great to be in profit for the year, but I am cautious of what still might happen. I have had $40,000 drops before in a very short space of time. For now I’m just going to enjoy this. There are 4 more months before the full year finishes and the dream is to make an average of $20,000 a month to push the profit to close to $100,000. This is nowhere near the $250,000 I was hoping for at the start of July, but if it makes it there then I’ll be ecstatic.
Lets have a good look at the graph of the past 8 months.
We can see the great start we had, which followed on from the end of the year 2 graph. Then from Aug to early Oct we were going nowhere, followed by the big drop off in mid to late October. That was then followed by 3 months of climbs and falls, resulting in an all time low on January 25th of -$44,000. From that day it has been nothing but straight up, a really amazing climb.
It might not sound like I am too excited, but I am. It’s just that I have expected this for sometime. I still believe the majority of models I follow are profitable long term and they will all have losing runs, I’ve just had to deal with a quite long losing run for a number of models I stake heavily.
Let’s get onto this weeks monster return and see what contributed the most.
We shall start with the losers. This week it was The Football Analyst Euro systems. Combined they lost $5,000. So far this season $170,000 has been bet for a return of $400. But I see value in these systems. Many times I have had a lot of money on some very very long shots and they have come very close to winning. It will take just one or two good wins and this model will look great at the end of the season. That’s it for losses this week.
Onto the winners. I started following the new AFL model with half stakes for the NAB cup and the results just continued on from last year. A $8,400 profit. ATP made a small $1,100 profit and the NBL added $2,200. XX Draws had a steady weekend with $1,500 profit and Combo FI added $3,400. FB Elite very easily could off had a $20,000 weekend, but in the end $1,600 was added to the total profit. Skeeve’s run of fine form continued with another $4,200 profit for the week. Finally TFA Established added a further $1,500 to end of what was an amazing week.
Onwards and Upwards from here I say. I’ve been through the ringer and after being pummeled for 8 months and surviving, we start a new dawn, one that shall see the profits for the year reach $100,000, or maybe go back down to -$50,000. Who really knows, this game is a fickle fucker at times. I’ll continue to enjoy the ride and have faith in my portfolio.
I don’t think many people would have stuck around this long with the run that I’ve had. I think it’s a good lesson for anyone trying to get into this game, perseverance is a very important skill to have in a situation like this.
Next week I shall be laughing at this weeks total profit, as next weeks will clearly eclipse it. Here’s hoping.
Total profit for the week was $24,206.63
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $2,484,490.91
Profit/Loss: $10,627.81
POT: 0.43%
Bets Placed: 3,966
Won: 1,591
Lost: 2,272
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 101
Winning %: 41.2%
Profit per day: $126,711.53 / 979 = $129.42
AFL H2H – SP $28,852.00 $9,068.35 31.4%
week profit/loss: 3136
AFL Line – SP $161,866.00 $(6,684.08) -4.1%
week profit/loss: 5274.90
ATP – SP $321,593.00 $3,283.70 1.0%
week profit/loss: 1173.73
NBL Totals $103,695.00 $(4,898.86) -4.7%
week profit/loss: 217.90
NBL Line $63,692.00 $942.53 1.5%
week profit/loss: 2050
XX Draws $52,000.00 $(7,485.00) -14.4%
week profit/loss: 210
XX Draws Under $52,000.00 $(4,942.00) -9.5%
week profit/loss: 341
XX Extended $107,000.00 $12,186.00 11.4%
week profit/loss: 295
XX Extended Under $106,694.00 $1,384.00 1.3%
week profit/loss: 736
FB Elite $206,819.00 $(17,734.97) -8.6%
week profit/loss: 1640
Skeeve $125,567.00 $(7,232.04) -5.8%
week profit/loss: 4209.60
Combo FI $183,950.00 $24,093.50 13.1%
week profit/loss: 3435
6-22 $60,475.00 $3,368.00 5.6%
week profit/loss: 1343.75
7-21 $92,360.00 $7,081.75 7.7%
week profit/loss: 371.25
7-22 $41,310.00 $1,479.00 3.6%
week profit/loss: 1443.75
8-21 $44,750.00 $3,066.63 6.9%
week profit/loss: -1166.25
8-22 $27,013.00 $(635.87) -2.4%
week profit/loss: -416.25
E1-E7 $50,625.00 $(3,914.24) -7.7%
week profit/loss: -322.50
E2-E6 $55,500.00 $3,391.14 6.1%
week profit/loss: -2043.75
E2-E7 $27,750.00 $(227.24) -0.8%
week profit/loss: -1102.50
E3-E6 $22,875.00 $670.50 2.9%
week profit/loss: -1500
E3-E7 $12,375.00 $517.50 4.2%
week profit/loss: 0
Wow congrats Daily25!
Very interesting that you say AFL has contributed two thirds of your profits. Would it be possible to give a breakdown of the others sometime, like at the end of the year? I have wondered if soccer is not that profitible over a lot of bets because it is too well followed and that there may be better opportunities in other sports.
Soccer has done amazing the past month. Since Feb 1st it has made $35,000. Since July 1st 2012 it has made $14,300. I was expecting a hell of a lot better to be honest. Per model I was hoping to make between 30-75k, I follow 5 models, so 150 – 375k. Nowhere near this number.
The other issue is that a number of these models disagree with each other and it is not uncommon for me to bet on all 3 results in a game.
Finally!! I do not know If I could handle for that long without results… I would be questioning myself all the time and would end changing something eheh, but you kept your head on your shoulders and never quit fighting back the cold streaks!
Good job and good luck!
Cheers,
Thanks mate. I was constantly questioning my staking amounts on each model and still feel they are wrong. It still isn’t over, with streaks of + or – $20k a week, I’m not out of the woods yet.
If you’re betting on all 3 results in a game then aren’t you just giving money to the bookies?
Ever looked closely at these situations to see if you should be following one of the models over the other?
Hi Dave,
There are usually different amounts on each bet. So there might be 2,000 on one and 500 on the other two results.
I really should work out a mathematical way that allows me to place just the one bet, but have not figured it out yet.
I also feel that I am not doing each model justice by following it fully if I was to bet on only 1 outcome.
But it is something I will seriously look at at the end of this season.
Hey Steve
It would depend on how confident you are with regards to the predictions put forward by each of the models. Placing two bets can be a hedge against a less likely result, but when you’re betting all three results all you’re doing is giving the bookmakers a free hedge. You might still make a profit out of it if the longer odds hit, or when the largest bet hits (depending on your bet structure across the three bets), but the expected value of that sort of betting setup should never be on the good side of zero.
I’d suggest taking a look back over your database and examining your overall equity from when you’ve taken a bet across win/draw/loss on the one game, just to confirm to yourself that it’s a loss making play. Even if you are coming out slightly ahead, your results should be far worse than if you’d just dropped the bet with the lowest overlay.
Skg from Sportpunter
Hi SKG,
Your right and I knew from the start of the season these were probably going to be losing plays. But I do have confidence in all but 1 of the models. After I get rid of that 1 model, I will only be betting on two outcomes and there will not be so many cross over bets.
There was just the one overlapping bet this week.
Getafe v Atl Madrid. The game ended in a draw.
I had
2000 on Getafe @ 4.2
500 on Draw @ 3.49
500 on Atl Madrid @ 2.08
Loss was $1,255.
As I won’t be betting the draws next season, there will be no bets on all three results, but still a lot on two. At the end of the season I will take a good look back over the results.
Just looking at that bet
If Getafe hits, your profit is 5.4k
If the draw hits, your profit is -1.225k
If Atl Madrid wins, your profit is -1.96k
Your two most likely outcomes are giving you huge losses, when you take all the bets into account. Even if Getafe was undervalued by the bookmakers, at best you’re going to be running at 3-10% equity on a long shot bet like that over time. Lets be generous and say you’ve got 10% equity with that bet, so that every time you bet, you have an expected return of 200, betting on Getafe alone. In a ludicrous world, lets assume we also have 10% equity on the Draw and 10% on the Atl Madrid. No matter what happens in these circumstances, your expected return isn’t ever going to come close to covering your losses in your hedging bets, under the best possible set of assumptions.
I could do the maths to demonstrate it properly, or write a far more eloquent paragraph on that point, but I’m tired and it’s 1am, so you’re going to have to excuse me.
There’s nothing wrong with a good hedging strategy, it’s potentially a good way to lock in a bit of equity – in fact, I had been considering developing a hedging model to go with Jonno’s AFL predictions, but at this stage I don’t really have enough data to go off. But just taking a bet each way is just giving the bookies money.
That said though, this has actually piqued my curiosity a little bit, to the point where I’m now wondering exactly how much your overall outcome has been affected by intersecting models, and, on another front, if any cluster analysis (or more general data analysis) could be found to see if there was either an optimal bet, or an optimal combination of bets, when your tipsters were suggesting each of the 3 ways. I can’t just say “hey, send all your data over to me”, but if you’d like to chat about it let me know.
Hey SKG,
would love to chat about it as my maths knowledge is lacking. Would be happy to send my data to you. Can you email me at admin @ daily25.com
Cheers
Hey Steve – sent you an email a few days ago with regards to this post, just sending a message here as well in case it got caught up in your spam filter or whatever.