May 20th – May 26th +$23,622.98

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7 Responses

  1. Hey Steve, I’m wondering do you put your run of bad luck this year down to your system failing you or you departing from your system?

  2. Steve says:

    Variance. This bad run? is it really though? Is well within mathematical probability. We are betting into 95% markets and need a 5% return just to break even.
    I have not changed anything from past years and always knew a bad year was a very likely probability, but a 300-500k profit year was also a probability.
    I’ll continue to make small adjustments (and a big one for Soccer betting), but have no real concerns with my current portfolio

  3. I just ask because sometimes in life in general not just sports trading we can over tinker with successful formulas until they’re not and because we do it gradually we don’t notice until it’s too late. So I just wondered if you had done something different, but I guess what you’re saying that it is well within the laws of probability and that you are still steaming along fine.

    Though you say big changes to your soccer betting, is that because you have applied new systems that didn’t work or old ones failing you?

  4. Steve says:

    I think the profits only came because I did tinker with the initial formula, when I started I had no idea what I was doing and after 16 months I was back at $0. I liked to call these times and lost profit “learning expenses”.

    Without that initial first year I wouldn’t be where I am today. I believe there is no system that can be left alone, especially in the ever changing sports betting landscape. New ideas and models are created daily and old models that performed well for a year or two are now being surpassed and turned into losing models.

    Stock investing is easy compared to sports betting. Stick to index funds and don’t touch your money for at least 10 years and you will get that 6-10% ROI.

    I will always make mistakes as we are working in the dark here, unlike the stock market, there is very little literature to help people along this path, we have to keep making it up as we go along, and that means mistake after mistake after mistake, until we find what works, and than refine it.

    I’m positive if I was a little smarter and much stronger at maths I would have devised a much better formula and probably been able to double my ROI, Sadly I am lacking in both those fields. But the good news is that even with my very very basic skills I have been able to make a profit, so with some tweaking I should be able to eek out that extra 1-2% ROI which will make all the difference.

    In regards to Soccer, it has never worked out, whether that is due to my staking or following bad tipsters, I am not sure. But after 4 solid years of betting on Soccer, it clearly is not working, so it’s time to scrap what I have been doing and start over on some new ideas.

    Hope this answered your questions.

  5. Yes it certainly did Steve thanks! I love the term “learning expenses” 🙂
    In my own humble way I have managed to find a very high strike rate bet in English soccer. If you check out my hashtag #BTTLive onTwitter you will see that I have got a strike rate that recently was in the high 90s and over the season (I’m guessing coz I haven’t checked yet) in the 80s.

    It’s basically under 2.5 goals, there is usually pretty good volume in them, though I’m not sure for the kind of amounts you wager.

    I’d be happy to share my process with you if you like, anyway thanks again for the answer, I’m really enjoying these posts.


  6. Steve says:

    Hey Roli,
    Sorry I missed this post. 80-90 SR is impressive. No need to share them with me, i’ll keep an eye on the hashtag next season and see how they do.

    All the best with it.

  7. No worries Steve, hope I can keep it up 🙂 Take it easy

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