Nov 27th – Dec 3rd -$3,411.77
The winning run has come to an end, but things were looking much worse earlier in the week, after another horrendous TFA midweek result and then a $10,000 loss on the NHL and NBA the next night, I was back out to a loss for the year of $20,000. The weekend soccer returned some of the losses and the deficit this week wasn’t so brutal.
FB Elite was the savior this week with a $4,200 profit. But I am still not convinced of it’s long term profitability. It really needs to impress over the next few months for me to continue with it. Combo FI produced a tiny loss and after the carnage of midweek, TFA recoup some of those losses on the weekend to end the week $2,100 down. My 7 day trial of Insider betting ended and I’m still not sure if I should pay for it, lower leagues, not getting anywhere near the odds quoted and a few other factors are warning signs. Why these tipsters can’t record fair odds is beyond me. If they were pure gamblers and they were just placing the bets themselves then that’s fine, as they can get those odds, but if you are a tipster you have to understand your customers position. Odds 30 minutes after you release your picks should be the bare minimum standard. This would make the majority of tipsters into losing ones and would save a lot of people a lot of money. In saying that, I need to diversify my portfolio and their long term results show that a profit can be made even with worse odds, so I will move to a one month trial.
The model that hurt the most this week was the NBL, two big total bets and one wasn’t even close, while the other looked great until the game went into overtime, but even then it looked good, with 18 points needed before I lost the under bet. 18 points were scored. A $7,000 loss on the totals. NFL made $600 and hopefully we start making some profit for the year from now, after the horrendous NHL night earlier in the week, it produced some wins and ended the week only $1,400 down. NBA turned around even more and ended the week up $2,700. Nics picks continues to suck balls and lost another $1,000 and it’s getting to that stage where I really need to ask myself if it’s worth continuing, I am getting an average of 10% worse odds then quoted and without a win very soon, the losses are going to start looking very ugly.
So another week down and not going anywhere. Some more midweek misery coming up for TFA with some large bets on two teams that have been pathetic all season. I can’t wait for AFL and Tennis to start again.
Total loss for the week was $3,411.77
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $1,453,234.00
Profit/Loss: $(9,880.61)
POT: -0.68%
Bets Placed: 2,435
Won: 871
Lost: 1508
Half Payout: 1
Refunded: 55
Winning %: 36.6%
Total profit per day: $177,641.48 / 1252 = $141.88
Total Turnover: $11,203,063.53
Total ROI: 1.59%
FB Elite $66,000.00 $(1,805.00) -2.7%
week profit/loss: 4225
Skeeve $41,440.00 $(4,074.10) -9.8%
week profit/loss: 0
Combo FI $41,590.00 $(2,865.00) -6.9%
week profit/loss: -90
TFA $294,693.00 $(40,173.00) -13.63%
week profit/loss: -2155
Insider Betting $3,500.00 $(213.50) -6.1%
week profit/loss: -637.50
NFL Totals $73,550.00 $(2,143.72) -2.9%
week profit/loss: 635.07
NP Win $12,798.00 $(8,205.00) -64.1%
week profit/loss: -975
NHL Totals $98,423.00 $(6,205.77) -6.3%
week profit/loss: -1434.88
NBL Totals $42,373.00 $4,837.35 11.4%
week profit/loss: -7000
NBL Line $34,161.00 $11,450.97 33.5%
week profit/loss: 341.49
NBA Totals $65,164.00 $(4,068.49) -6.2%
week profit/loss: 241.74
NBA H2H $33,163.00 $7,890.80 23.8%
week profit/loss: 2437.31
Have you asked Jon to record his AFL bets 30 minutes after release? Would be interesting to see what kind of results the AFL model would get then.
I have indeed Michael, I was actually talking to him about this very issue last week. I believe all his models should take odds 30 minutes after he releases them. He believes that all his models odds be taken just from Pinnacle and people can match or exceed those odds.
I off course disagree, and in sports such as tennis, i can usually get better odds later, but for the majority of sports, if I am not at the computer at time of release I have to accept worse odds.
But in defense of Sportpunter models, as long as I am at the computer then I can get my bets on at the advised odds, sadly this isn’t so for the majority of other models as the max bets early on are very low.
I would say the AFL lines move out at least a point withing 30 minutes and even though it would still be the greatest model I have come across, I did win 1 or 2 half point games this season.
It will be tough getting those pay services to change.
Insider Betting doesn’t sound very promising. An already popular service betting lower leagues and odds hard to follow. Think I’ll pass 🙂
But I will give credit to Football Investor who I think you wrote last season was someone who posted odds that were impossible to get. I wasn’t following him last season but I am this season and he has changed the way he records his odds. I have had no problems with his quoted odds so far.
Agree, but over time they will lose more and more customers and eventually they will have no business left. Honesty and trust are very important to me when choosing a tipster.
As always, i’ll be the guinea pig :), the fact is, if I can make a profit then anyone will be able to.
Yep, Football Investor is doing a great job of quoting fair odds, big Kudos there.
Thanks for being the guinea pig 🙂 I enjoy reading your honest reviews of these services. Its very helpful.