Oct 27th – Nov 9th
A fortnightly update as I have been in bed all week with tonsillitis and spent the rest of the week moving to a new home. To go with the stress of moving and feeling like someone was constantly scraping a razor down my throat is the terrible 2 weeks of betting. NHL continues to disgust me and it is 1 more bad week away from me quitting it completely. -30% POT is a joke and it does not look to be getting better any time soon. The days I was able to bet on Mens tennis were also terrible, and as always the days I wasn’t able to bet they did ok. I was lucky to miss what was a terrible Friday last week on Soccer, but also missed some nice winning days as well.
The biggest lesson I learnt last week was that my Kelly fraction was way too high for my NBA betting, after a horrible day that saw me drop $7,000, i have halved my kelly again. As this is a new unproven model, i think i should bet smaller until I have some confidence in it. Line betting is going terrible, but Totals is steady and I see some potential there.
I’m in a bit of a funk at the moment, I don’t see any way to make a profit over the next few months. There is no sport that seems to be making constant profits, it really just seems that I am treading water and slowly running out of energy. According to my graphs, this has happened before, where for a month the profit goes nowhere, and then a great week sees it shoot up. I hope i can eat my words in the coming weeks.
On a technical note, 3G wireless is still a terrible service. I have been using my iphone and tethering it to my computer but it only works when it wants to, it has been very very frustrating to place any bets. The Ipad is also a poor substitute for a laptop or pc as many sports books use flash or some other technology which the safari browser just doesn’t. Hopefully Telstra has my broadband sorted by Friday as they promised.
Total loss for the fortnight was $3390
Stats
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Total bet amount: $788,185.01
Profit/Loss: $34,374.65
POT: 4.4%
Bets Placed: 1,754
Won: 790
Lost: 901
Half Payout: 1
Refunded: 62
Winning %: 46.7%
Profit per day: 34,374.65 / 132 = $260
did you see the nba update today: “Very nice NBA day today. 6 wins from 6 bets including Toronto at odds of $13. 4 wins from 4 handicap bets and 4 wins from 5 totals bets!”
Yep, a nice day. But i only bet Line and Totals. Also some nice ATP wins. Bank is back to around 35k now. Hoping for a good soccer night tonight. Tonight’s NBL was really bad and in negative territory with it now, which is a shock.
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