October 2013 Review -$30,475.86
October saw me on a 24 night cruise from Vancouver to Sydney. It was a very frustrating month, as not only was it a real hassle to get the bets on, but I was also continuing my slide down to a very uncomfortable position. I found it quite difficult to relax as my yearly loss started to climb very quickly towards -$50,000. It was once again all due to another terrible month of Soccer and once again TFA was to blame. I was now down well over 60% of my bank in only 2 months.
$227,805.00 was bet in October for a loss of $30,475.86, which was a -13.38% ROI.
In October I had 3 American sports going. The NBA and NHL had started and I was continuing to bet on the NFL. NBA got off to a poor start with a $2,917 loss. NHL made $1,500. But the NFL was going terribly. A $8,264 loss there.
I had also started betting the NBL when I got back to Sydney and after a poor start to the season which I missed, it turned around and made almost $14,000 profit.
The Tennis season was starting to come to a close and the model started to give back some of the profits made over the year. A $2,780 loss for the month. The NRL season came to a close with a $600 profit. Golf had no winners for a $2,875 loss.
Soccer had back to back shockers and lost $29,654 at -20.2%. By this time I had lost all faith in any Soccer model and after 2 seasons of betting it looked like I wasn’t going to find a profitable system.
The month ended with me at a season high loss of $53,000 and questioning if it was worth continuing. Over the September-October period I had managed a $86,000 loss. My hopes were pinned on a great November. If I continued to loss at this rate, it wouldn’t be long before all my profits over the past 3 years were wiped out.
Combined Totals
Tennis $16,396.00 $(2,780.78) -17.0%
Soccer $146,440.00 $(29,654.00) -20.2%
Basketball $29,374.00 $10,968.89 37.3%
NRL $638.00 $599.72 94.0%
Golf $2,875.00 $(2,875.00) -100.0%
NFL $17,564.00 $(8,264.04) -47.1%
NHL $14,518.00 $1,529.35 10.5%
Individual Models
ATP – SP $16,396.00 $(2,780.78) -17.0%
FB Elite $13,000.00 $(310.00) -2.4%
Skeeve $7,800.00 $(2,106.00) -27.0%
Combo FI $17,590.00 $(1,391.50) -7.9%
6-22 $5,950.00 $(2,282.00) -38.4%
7-21 $8,600.00 $(3,598.50) -41.8%
7-22 $3,500.00 $(3,150.00) -90.0%
8-21 $3,650.00 $(2,180.00) -59.7%
8-22 $2,100.00 $(1,750.00) -83.3%
31-42 $18,200.00 $2,438.50 13.4%
33-41 $5,300.00 $(3,707.50) -70.0%
33-42 $4,000.00 $(2,379.50) -59.5%
TOX $16,800.00 $(4,109.00) -24.5%
STOY $16,100.00 $(2,840.00) -17.6%
STOZ $21,400.00 $(2,358.50) -11.0%
D3-D6 $1,400.00 $(140.00) -10.0%
D3-D7 $1,050.00 $210.00 20.0%
OTP NRL $638.00 $599.72 94.0%
NP Win $2,875.00 $(2,875.00) -100.0%
NBL Totals $11,945.00 $7,768.43 65.0%
NBL Line $8,556.00 $6,116.73 71.5%
NBA Totals $5,886.00 $(4,504.05) -76.5%
NBA H2H $2,987.00 $1,587.78 53.2%
NFL Totals $17,564.00 $(8,264.04) -47.1%
NHL Totals $14,518.00 $1,529.35 10.5%
Hi,
I came across your blog last month and have been following it on a regular basis. How did you decide on which systems to follow? Did you do much back testing on them? I’m doing similar stuff to you so interested to hear from a fellow investor:)
Hi Thomas,
To be honest, there isn’t much thought that goes into me picking a model. There is only so much we can go on when picking a tipster. I have made so many mistakes over the years and I’m sure I will make many many more.
What I would love to know beforehand when choosing who to follow is.
1. Time bets come out
2. The real odds I can expect to get (30 minutes after release)
3. Were past results proofed
4. Biggest drawdowns
5. How the system was derived (stats or opinion or combination)
6. What others think about the service
7. How long has it been going
8. What bookies they suggest (If they say anything other then Pin and asian then I know I can not get odds anywhere near what they say)
9. I’m sure there are many other factors I consider.
But at the end of the day, if they seem to have a winning record, and are in a league I know I can get bets on and if the service is a reasonable price, then I will give them a go. The majority of the time they are shit and i’ll lose a bit of money, but then when you find a good one and know long term they will make a profit for you, that’s a great feeling.
I still don’t know when to stop following a service, as I feel I have to at least finish 1 season to properly explain to all my readers if the tipster was good or bad. I do have a set bank for each and on a few occasions that has been hit.
I think there are probably less then 10 models out there that can make a consistent profit after taking into account all of the points above.
I just have to keep testing these systems and be ruthless when I know they are not as they appear. Something I will be doing more of in 2014.
Thanks for your reply. Can I send you an email through this site? There is some stuff I’d like to tell you but want to keep private. Thanks
No worries, just send emails to admin@ thissite .com