Sep 12th – Sep 18th +$14,773.89
Well that’s quite a turnaround. A fantastic week which has brought the profit for the year back into positive territory. As I’m betting between $60-100,000 a week, $20,000 swings are likely to be common place. I just hope I get a few months of wins before another big loss. With the Soccer season starting to really rev up, the majority of profit will be coming from the systems I am following.
These are XX Draws, FB Elite, Skeeve, Football Analyst, and Football Investor. That is a hell of a lot of bets per week. I’ll break each down and my expectations for the season.
XX draws is a system I have a lot of trust in. It has been developed by cassini of the very good Green All Over blog. A highly recommended read as he not only gives out some great advice once in a while, but the best part about cassini is that he doesn’t hold back and likes to start arguments with those he feels are doing the wrong thing, or who he feels are just plain idiots (Why he hasn’t had a dig at me as of yet I’m not sure, we’ll I am fairly sure it’s because I get about 50 people reading this blog compared to his many thousands and he has no time for us little meaningless fish). The reason I like this system is simple, people hate draws and no one ever bets on them, but they happen a hell of a lot, this means for a lot of games the prices available are great value. This is something that has been noted by Jonno at Sportpunter a number of times, people hate to back the unders in most sports as they want to see lots of goals/points. This makes backing unders very profitable in the right circumstances.
I am following the XX Draws and the Extended draws as well as Under 2.5 for each system at $500 per bet. Going off the only stats I can (last years results – I know, I know) I am hoping to make a bit over 100 points of profit. So anything over $50,000 will be amazing. These picks come out very early in the week and allow me to place the bets whenever I like, and as I have a hell of a lot to do on Saturdays I usually finish these on a friday night. They are all bets in Top flight leagues so getting on is a non issue. Long losing runs are to be expected with the draws, but the Under 2.5 should see some stability.
FB Elite is the first Soccer model I joined. It has been around for ages and even though the last few years have not matched the first few, it is still an amazing service. I’m hoping to make between 10-30 points profit this year with a betsize of $2,000. So between $20 – $60,000. All bets are in the big leagues and this year he is betting using mostly Asian handicaps to smooth out the varience. Easy to get bets on even though I bet them much later in the day.
Skeeve is another great service and knows the Blue Sq league better then anyone. I do have issues with the service, but they are because of my own situation and no reflection on his service. Being a lower league and me betting $400 per point, I find it very difficult to get my bets matched at the quoted odds, I have tried it all, getting up at 3am to place the bets as soon as they come out, waiting till 10minutes before the game, and many other options. I usually get close to but rarely better then the odds quoted. Luckily his ROI is so good that I should still make a healthy profit each year. Im hoping for about 50 points profit this season at $400 per point. So $20,000.
Football Analyst is a new system for me and I am following about 10 of the 1 billion different systems on offer. With the UK bets I am betting $750 home and $375 aways and for all euro league bets I will be betting $375. Graeme produced my very own spreadsheet on what I can expect and we are looking for a 100% ROC, which should see $75,000 added to the bank this season.
Finally there is Football Investor, a system I lost a bit on last year, but thought I would give another chance this year. I am betting $200 on FBI picks and $400 on Strikezone. I have no pre determined profits for these systems and just want to see how they perform over the year.
So that’s everything I’m following this year. The main issues are what do I do when two tipsters pick opposing teams. My solution to that is simple, bet each and every bet as is. They are all different systems, but have proven to make profit each year, so I will follow them accordingly. If things go to plan (that’s the most wishful thing every written on this blog), then I stand to make close to $200,000 for the season, hahahaha, even I know there is zero chance of that. But that’s the plan anyway, if I only get to half that goal then I’ll still be doing backflips.
Ok, onto this weeks awesome results.
Two AFL games and surprisingly the model picked the Fav in both. I say it all the time that I should never watch these games, but I really did grow some grey hairs while watching the Adelaide game, luckily they just covered the line for a great win. Collingwood also looked poor early before covering with ease. A nice $7,000 profit there.
Tennis continues it’s suckiness with $2,500 lost. Horses made $3,300 but I’ve had to take much worse odds lately and still am unsure If I will continue with it at the end of the year.
Soccer had a great week too. XX Draws added $4,300, FB Elite $1,300, Analyst $4,000. The losing models were Skeeve with -$1,200 and FB Investor with -$200.
The new bank amounts are below. (If a bank isn’t mentioned below then I am using a constant bank for it)
AFL H2H: $81348
AFL Line: $75000
Total profit for the week was $14,773.89
AFL H2H – SP $22,847.00 $6,348.35 27.8%
week profit/loss: 1472
AFL Line – SP $141,101.00 $(10,868.98) -7.7%
week profit/loss: 5561.70
ATP – SP $111,055.00 $(4,529.36) -4.1%
week profit/loss: 620
WTA -SP $129,139.00 $821.37 0.6%
week profit/loss: -3138.81
New Horses $95,244.00 $4,398.00 4.6%
week profit/loss: 3385
XX Draws $8,000.00 $1,455.00 18.2%
week profit/loss: 1105
XX Draws Under $8,000.00 $(1,934.50) -24.2%
week profit/loss: 263
XX Extended $17,500.00 $806.50 4.6%
week profit/loss: 2490
XX Extended Under $17,500.00 $3,039.00 17.4%
week profit/loss: 418.50
FB Elite $6,050.00 $2,159.20 35.7%
week profit/loss: 1370
Skeeve $25,016.00 $(4,053.00) -16.2%
week profit/loss: -1199
6-22 $1,125.00 $52.50 4.7%
week profit/loss: 52.50
7-21 $2,250.00 $772.50 34.3%
week profit/loss: 1522.50
7-22 $435.00 $742.50 170.7%
week profit/loss: 742.50
8-21 $375.00 $802.50 214.0%
week profit/loss: 802.50
8-22 $375.00 $802.50 214.0%
week profit/loss: 802.50
Football Investor $1,000.00 $(380.00) -38.0%
week profit/loss: -380
Strikezone $800.00 $192.00 24.0%
week profit/loss: 192
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $587,812.00
Bets Placed: 809
Half Payout: 0
Winning %: 43.2%
Profit per day: $116,709.80 / 811 = $143.90