Apr 13th – Apr 19th

The great run did have to end sometime and that came this week with a $5k loss. Soccer again ended the week with another $2150 loss, if another loss is recorded next week there is nothing left to do but stop betting it until the new season, something I should have down a month ago. Baseball had a small loss and AFL was profitable again with a $2.6k win. Tennis continues to frustrate with a small loss again. All the profits from last weeks NRL were taken back this week. The NHL season is now in the playoffs and there has been some talk about the amount of scoring in the playoffs compared to regular season, I am sticking with the model to the end of the season. Looks like after a whole season I will end up down a little or close to zero, it feels like such a waste of time. The Golf continued its losing run with 11 bets and no winners. With the large odds on offer here, it will only take 1 winner to get back into profit.

I subscribe to a number of other betting blogs and it seems they are having a hard time of it lately. All I can say to them is that I know how you feel. If you look back just 6 weeks I was at the lowest in my betting career, but if you have a sound portfolio and are backing value things will turn around, just don’t make any drastic changes and things will eventually improve.

Some site maintenance in regard to Formbet. Dave has come up with a new spreadsheet which automates all the bets. This is a great improvement and saves me about 30 minutes a night, which I am very grateful for. But that means it is much more difficult to update all the different models that are followed by Formbet. So now there will only be a single Formbet total which will encompass the TOP3, back and Value bets as well as a few other bets. The issue here to is that it will not give a real ROI or amount bet as all i can put in each day is the total won or lost. So this week it says I bet a little over $9,000, that is way off, it was closer to $25,000. So don’t take the ROI of that system to heart. It will also have a small impact on the Total ROI but there is nothing I can really do about it. The new spreadsheet and bot does break down each different model and once in a while I will post those results here.

Total loss for the week was $5,068.63

Baseball $232,469.01 $9,406.49 4.0%
Week profit/loss: -1984.38

Baseball Line $287,958.00 $23,144.37 8.0%
Week profit/loss: 1369.61

AFL $33,324.00 $4,788.46 14.4%
Week profit/loss: -1336.25

AFL line $49,063.00 $15,120.60 30.8%
Week profit/loss: 2525.31

AFL Totals $23,585.00 $5,010.00 21.2%
Week profit/loss: 1462.80

Soccer H2H $157,451.00 $5,015.68 3.2%
Week profit/loss: -2259.45

Over Soccer $94,699.00 $4,061.79 4.3%
Week profit/loss: 591

Under Soccer $203,101.00 $(1,913.25) -0.9%
Week profit/loss: -482.52

Tennis – ATP $225,746.00 $(7,325.26) -3.2%
Week profit/loss: -992.29

WTA – Tennis $195,564.00 $2,362.75 1.2%
Week profit/loss: 542

NRL $15,077.00 $(5,373.77) -35.6%
Week profit/loss: -908.98

NHL – Totals $167,313.00 $(1,704.79) -1.0%
Week profit/loss: -1109.48

Horse Racing $87,652.00 $(942.60) -1.1%
Week profit/loss: -1031

Golf $9,223.00 $(3,331.25) -36.1%
Week profit/loss: -1100

TOP3 $42,656.00 $5,634.00 13.2%
Week profit/loss: -1655

Value $10,500.00 $3,204.00 30.5%
Week profit/loss: 0

FB Elite $6,050.00 $(267.95) -4.4%
Week profit/loss: 28

Yellow&Green $2,800.00 $(1,600.00) -57.1%
Week profit/loss: 0

Formbet $9,280.00 $1,272.00 13.7%
Week profit/loss: 1272

Total bet amount: $2,223,573.37
Profit/Loss: $31,108.02
POT: 1.4%

Bets Placed: 5,956
Won: 2,368
Lost: 3,368
Half Payout: 3
Refunded: 217
Winning %: 41.3%

Profit per day: 31,108.02 / 293 = $106.17

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  • Adam

    Dave constantly tinkers mate. You’ll get used to that – the ratings are decent but he wants to keep making unrealistic (IMO) ROIs, to him ROI is everything so he would snivel at the 1.4% on your blog, but when you see +31k you soon realise its not all about ROI but iterations.

    You’d be better off cracking some of your own strategies using the ratings.


  • admin

    It does seem that way at times. With the new autobetting it would be very easy to come up with my own systems and have them bet for me. I really need to automate all my betting. If I could make this completely passive income then it would be perfect

  • admin

    Adam, do you have any other horse racing tipsters you could recommend?

  • Adam

    Hi Steve

    Personally i wouldn’t recommend anything “directly” because I’m a big believer that if you are going to use tipsters, you have to be getting something different out of them c.f. everyone else. For example your soccer strategy on the sportpunter stuff – i know some people disagree with the backfitting, and they are probably right but the main point for me is that you aren’t chasing prices, trying to do things that hundreds of other people do whereas with formbet, the product remains of a consistent quality, the only thing that can damage it is the price of the selections, and if lots of people are getting on board, those prices will inevitably move in by a (sometimes large) percentage thus destroying any edge that was there in the first race.

    I stick to ratings based stuff but do my own things based on the ratings. There are crossovers with Dave’s bets sometimes of course but a lot of mine are utilising other underbet factors (because that IMO is the fine line between winning and losing). There are other ratings products out there, but I don’t want to put any forward to you at the moment since I think you need to put in a solid performance with what you have got, get to an acceptable level of profit and ROI, and THEN look to change things/add more to the portfolio.

    I never even place a bet on a tipster without live proofing for long enough to make me mathematically certain that they have enough of an edge. I don’t mean to sound like I am trying to patronise, or anything like that, but you look to have made some of the same mistakes that I did when I started off – adding too many strings to the bow, picking up more tipsters, dropping them when they don’t perform – I have my methods and I stick to them, i WANT to get to the stage where things are boring and laborious because I’ve been doing exactly the same thing for several years, because I know that in a year they will work, even if in a day, week, month or even quarter of a year they don’t yield much or suffer a loss, there is always an equivalent upside (and indeed better, and that’s how we bank profits).

    With the number of tipsters you are using, I don’t know what the theoretical exposure to P and L could be over a week, but with this week’s 20k its certainly a frightening number. If I had to say one more thing about a mistake I have also made in the past (and still do!) its that times of year make a big difference especially on football ratings (referring to your football comments) – Jon’s model is relatively simplistic (in that it underperforms in the bigger leagues where more complex models can win in those leagues with regularity) so a rule of no bets in the first 6 games and last 6 games of any season might seem a little cautious but I think it would be a good idea for the future.

    You can still learn a lot from observation rather than action. Hope the above helps and is taken in the spirit that it is intended.