Apr 20th – Apr 26th
WOW, where do I even start. I thought every bad thing that could happen in this game had happened and it was clear sailing from here with just a few stormy weeks. How wrong I was. I feel like I’ve been bent over and given a right royal shagging. So many things converged to make this the worst week of my betting life and add in my normal life hassles and I’m surprised I didn’t drink myself into a stupor yesterday at ANZAC day. I guess I’ll start with the total loss for the week. $19,354 lost in 7 days of betting. $11,000 of that was Formbets shocking run this week. I started the bot each night and went to bed, Each morning I would wake up and refresh my betfair balance and see between a 2 and 4k loss. The best day was a -400 loss. This would start my day off miserably and then things would only get worse. A major gripe of mine with tipsters is how quite they are during these periods, not posting results and hoping that by being quite people wont say anything, then if there is one winner they post about how they picked a 33/1. What about the 100 favourites you picked that lost? I am not blaming Formbet, it’s just a terrible run and I hope it can turn around, but my limit on all models has been to stop them at -$10,000 which formbet is now at. I have faith in the model and I’m sure (not as much as a few weeks ago mind you) that it will claw back these massive loses and return to profit soon. I realise they have a product to sell and its marketing 101 not to talk about your products faults, but I would have a lot more respect and understanding for a tipster that talks about terrible runs and shows that he is also feeling the pain with his subscribers.
In saying that, I should be only down $5,000 on all formbet for this week. But as with everything this week, I was dealt a major lesson from the gambling gods. The lesson was: Make sure your bets get matched. Formbet also advises on golf. The best prices are always on Betfair. I placed the 8 bets on the China open and then clicked submit. This was a day before the start of play. All bets but one got matched. I decided to leave it as it was next in line and should have been picked up. The next day before I thought the tournament was about to start I logged in to make sure it got matched. It wasn’t and because of daylight saving I was an hour overtime and the market had gone inplay. In Australia you cant bet on inplay markets online. I could off called but didn’t think it was worth the effort as it was such a long shot at $65. You can guess the rest of the story. The player (NICOLAS COLAERTS) went on to win by 4 shots, costing me a $6,500 profit. If that wasn’t bad enough, I also had $300 on Luke Donald at $11, who managed to lose in a playoff at the heritage classic. Lesson number 267: Make sure all bets are placed.
Now we add in general life issues. My girlfriend left for London at the start of the week and will be gone for a year as she follows her dream. Also I’m moving again which is always a massive hassle. Top that all with a severe dose of man flu and you can understand how I’m feeling. But these things are offset by the Easter and Anzac weekend. Easter was spent with my family which always results in lifting my spirits. During the copious amounts of beer yesterday with friends, I took a moment to think about what our current and past soldiers have done for us, and that really puts this week and this whole gambling thing into perspective. I really have no right to complain, but read on, because I will.
I’ll now list you the profitable models this week. NRL. List done. $89 profit.
AFL had a few heart breakers this week in the last 30 seconds of 2 games. A goal in each game cost both lines and a H2H bet. But the opposite happened in the first round so even though it hurts, these things seem to even out over time. Baseball had a bad H2H week. Jonno was away for the weekend and didn’t update the soccer, so only a few bets for another small loss. I’m sure the way things were going that it would have continued its poor end of season run. Tennis just can’t get it together and its really frustrating, ATP made a profit this week, but WTA went terrible. Losses also in NHL playoffs and the Golf mentioned earlier.
I’m really worried about this whole escapade now. Another week like this and I’m into negative for the first time ever. I know I bet large amounts, but never thought I could lose that much in 1 week. 300 days into this and I still have no idea if this is something that can be a long term thing. A few of you may say I need to cut back my bet amounts, but if I go for something i always go hard. If i was betting smaller then these ups and downs wouldn’t have such a big impact, but I would feel like I’m wasting my time as well. Right now I’m on the cusp of comfortable when it comes to these bets. Lets see what the next week brings. I’m positive now that after a year of betting I will be nowhere near my stated goals. Now i just ride out the next 65 days and see where they place me.
Total loss for the week was $19,354.22
Baseball $244,083.01 $7,251.64 3.0%
Week profit/loss: -2154.85
Baseball Line $298,691.00 $23,607.56 7.9%
Week profit/loss: 463.19
AFL $36,020.00 $2,627.46 7.3%
Week profit/loss: -2161
AFL line $52,882.00 $15,517.15 29.3%
Week profit/loss: 396.55
AFL Totals $30,765.00 $5,297.00 17.2%
Week profit/loss: 281
Soccer H2H $157,546.00 $5,126.83 3.3%
Week profit/loss: 111.15
Over Soccer $95,159.00 $3,601.79 3.8%
Week profit/loss: -460
Under Soccer $203,493.00 $(1,913.25) -0.9%
Week profit/loss: 0
Tennis – ATP $235,540.00 $(4,999.24) -2.1%
Week profit/loss: 2326.02
WTA – Tennis $209,871.00 $(1,901.75) -0.9%
Week profit/loss: -4264.5
NRL $16,465.00 $(5,286.77) -32.1%
Week profit/loss: 87
NHL – Totals $169,435.00 $(2,603.57) -1.5%
Week profit/loss: -898.78
Golf $10,877.00 $(4,985.25) -45.8%
Week profit/loss: -1654
FB Elite $6,050.00 $(267.95) -4.4%
Week profit/loss: 0
Formbet $20,712.00 $(10,160.00) -49.1%
Week profit/loss: -11432
Total bet amount: $2,301,259.37
Bets Placed: 6,101
Half Payout: 3
Winning %: 41.1%
Profit per day: 11,753.80 / 300= $39.18