Apr 20th – Apr 26th

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  • Adam

    Still ahead of the index fund and the bank account Steve, not much more to say, aside from taking the valuable psychological lesson out of the week. If you don’t feel terrible, then you have the makeup to make it in this game. Some people would panic and close the doors right now.

    Variance is a tough beast to master.

  • Brett Dvoracek

    A few things for you to think about;

    After you hit 365 days, take a step back, evaluate and have a good think about the whole venture. It’s all well and good to show an accounting profit, but consider the opportunity cost of engaging in this venture for the last 365 days.

    I would include the opportunity cost of setting the time aside you have for your betting as part of your comparison with the Index fund and Bank. At least you don’t have to lift a finger to earn your ROI% with those avenues of investment. Assume your time is worth $25 AUD per hour.

    I’m not sure if you’ve factored in operating expenses into these listed profit figures either, but take into account subscription costs, and apportion such costs as internet, electricity, etc to determine your true return.

    Once this is done, then it comes down to determining the utility of the whole venture as compared to other things you could have done in the last 365 days.

    Does a financial gain of x over and above what you could have made doing something else with your time and money really worth it? How about the hard to quantify intangibles? Namely the stress (and the stress-induced cortisol released into the body by engaging in sustained high level risk). Trust me, I’ve had stress induced cold/flu from this type of investment too.

    If you can evaluate the whole venture at this level of granularity, and can still give the investment venture a resounding ‘yes’, then only then would I move into your next 365 days.

  • admin

    Adam: as always, thanks for the backup and positive words.

    Hi Brett,
    Thanks for the comments. In a few early posts I do talk about the time I spend on placing bets. As i purely follow what I believe are proven tipsters, I spend no time on any analysis and just place the bets. A few of these systems have bots which takes no time to get set up. Everything else takes a maximum of an hour a day. Early on it was taking many more hours, but I have streamlined everything and an hour a day placing bets and listening to TED.com talks is a better way to spend my time then watching TV. The biggest time cost was watching the actual games I bet on. I did this for quite a while but discovered that there was no point being stressed over a single result, so for the most part I spend no time watching anything now. On weekends I might watch an AFL game, but that’s mostly because I enjoy watching it.

    I am also a huge fan of index funds, low costs, better returns then managed funds and no hassles. What I want to show with that information is that even a low profit on turnover of 1% can return a nice profit. Too many tipsters are concerned with eking out the highest possible ROI they can. I stated from the start that I would be happy with between 2-5% POT each year.

    I work for myself from home, so all costs are covered by my business. I help put with the sportpunter website and in return have access to his tips, which can be quite restrictive for some people. The only thing I pay for is Formbet, which is fairly cheap.

    There are many extra things I could do with 365 hours a year. But my hope is for this to be a major income source in the coming years, over that time, things will get even more streamlined and automated, and if I can achieve what I hope to then it will free up even more free time in the future.

    Stress wise I feel pretty good. My attachment to money isn’t really a massive issue for me. I am after all still in profit. But last night there was a nice comeback with a $13k profit. I felt about the same as I did the day before. 20k lost and 13k gained didn’t really affect my mood as much as hanging with friends or playing sport does. Unlike most of the people who start betting, I am lucky to have a strong financial footing, if this went to shit then I can just move on and continue what I’m doing currently.

    Once the year is up, ill read through all my posts, do some calculations and really think about things. I believe I won’t up stakes or decrease them, but I may set some concrete goals for year 2.