2013/14 Soccer season notes
Only a few weeks away from the first Soccer season bets and my second full year of soccer in my portfolio. Last season was not the start I had hoped for. I turned over $1.74 million and made only $17,878, after adding in subscription costs this was less then a 1% ROI. Very disappointing. The only change I have made is to drop one service and that one broke even last season. There are also numerous tweaks to the other systems I am following.
This season I am following The Football Analyst (TFA), Skeeve, Football Elite (FE) and Football Investor (FI). Two of these systems made a loss last season and I am hoping for a big turnaround. Let’s look at each model and the amount I will be betting this season.
Last season I followed 5 established combined systems and 5 Euro combined systems. $587,000 was bet and a profit of $35,500 was achieved. This season the Euro bets are gone. Graeme has no confidence in them and that means that I don’t either.
My new portfolio is all English based. 6-22,7-21,7-22,8-21,8-22,31-42,33-41,33-42,TOX,STOY,STOZ,D3-D6,D3-D7. 13 separate systems. Home bets will be $600 and away and draw bets will be $350. We are looking at an average of 563 Home bets, 1067 away bets and 130 draw bets. In total I will be betting just over $750,000, a 30% increase over last season. The average over the past 7 years says this unique portfolio should return 25.8% ROI with the worst season returning 11.4%. I am aiming for 10% and that equates to a profit of $75,000. The average return will see me streaking down the main street in my town and a profit of $193,500.
Issues: This is heavily concentrated on UK soccer. I wish the euro systems were as good as the UK ones as I would love to diversify. A bad season could see my entire bank wiped out. The other big issue is overlapping bets. I had Graeme do some analysis and there will be at least 60-70 home bets on all 11 systems. This means on lower league games I will need to be betting $6,000. I am not sure if that is even possible.
After last seasons disaster I am halving my bets to $1,000. As Matt is doubling his bets to around 200 a season this will mean turnover will be the same, but should fix the variance issue. Looking to turnover around $200,000 for the season and half the official ROI of 14.2% would make me happy. $14,000 is the goal, anything over $20,000 would be seen as a great year.
No changes this year. $400 per point. This is pretty much the upper limit of what can be matched on these non league games without having to resort to poorer odds. The average number of picks per season is around 115 and turnover will be close to $150,000. The official ROI is 13%, so will be happy with 6.5% and a profit of $10,000.
I will be continuing with Combo bets this season. $500 per bet and with 500 bets over the season turnover will be $250,000. A 5% ROI is the goal here so a profit of $12,500. I will also be betting a new FI model which will see another $150,000 turned over and looking for 8% ROI on these. That will add a further $12,000. I might also add the Euro bets in but am undecided.
So we are looking at a reduction in the total amount bet to $1,500,000 this season. As I will be betting around $4,000,000 over the season, Soccer will account for 37.5% of total bets. There will be around 2850 bets over the season. The minimum goal is 5% and if past results are anything to go by then that should be easily attainable. The portfolio is very heavily weighted towards the two models that made a profit last season and even more so towards TFA. I am a little worried as TFA and FI do throw up a number of similar bets and if they perform poorly then I will be losing a fair bit this season. If they perform to expectation then I will be a very happy punter.
So with a 5% ROI I am looking for $75,000 profit for the season. A 10% ROI will see $150,000 profit and if they all hit their average official ROI then we would be looking at $286,000. But to be honest, hitting the 5% mark is what I am really aiming for and if Soccer can’t make a good profit this season then I will need to take a hard look at it for year 5.