2018 Annual Review

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10 Responses

  1. udog says:

    what do you do when Sportpunter closes for good?

  2. admin says:

    I’ve taken a life insurance policy out on Jonno 🙂
    But in all seriousness, I’d stop expecting to make a profit from my betting. I’d probably bet for fun, try and pass on what I have learnt and continue making products in this space.

  3. TheBossofBetting says:

    1000 bets is a good distance to say that you are profitable tipster, good job. Amazing results in NBA. Why so bad result in AFL? As i know it it not hard to predict this league in opening lines on Pinnacle and Sbobet.

  4. admin says:

    If it was easy to predict things, everyone would be very rich. Not sure why the AFL model had a poor year. It generally has one every 4 years, but over the recent years it seems to be doing much worse then it previously did.

  5. Sean says:

    Great review again Steve. Seems you need to crank out more ‘Mistakes’ in 2019 😛

  6. admin says:

    Thanks Sean, I should start selling the “mistakes” service

  7. Sean says:

    Steve actually I have a question. If you are only following the Sportpunter models, I note the results spreadsheet for 2018 on Dailyprofit shows pretty much break even on the year. Yet above you have had a profitable year. Am I right in assuming your actual bets placed have been filtered down / stakes geared up, whereas those in the results sheet are all-inclusive of everything given by Sportpunter? Can the two be reconciled?

  8. admin says:

    Hey Sean, It’s all about staking sizes and also the AFL and NRL bets I didn’t place when I was travelling for the World Cup (The AFL would have resulted in a big loss for me).

    So Dailyprofit has the same weightings for all 4 sports. That’s purely for fairer recording. But we let our members know which models we think are better and what weightings to use.

    So my NRL bank was a little bigger this year and my AFL was smaller than the year before. I also slightly increased my NBA bank.

    It just shows that how you set your bank sizes is pretty important.

  9. dav says:

    Hi Steve,

    Regarding your 2018 Bitcoin paper losses?

    Aren’t you still up near 35x. What was your average buy in if you care to share?

    And when you say you put some profits into bitcoin around 2016 ; does that mean you put a few grand of your profits into Bitcoin in 16 or did you put around 5 or 6 figures?

    Out of curiosity why didn’t you take any (maybe 25%) BTC off the table in 2017 into 2018 when it went above 2k and then 5k to 10K and beyond plus.

    Seems like it hit your 2017 goal in Summer? Or is it really a 30K btc price or year end 2022 type goal? Do you suspect it can 10x again over the next 3 years? Thank you.

  10. admin says:

    Hi Dav,

    Yep, still comfortably up from my average buy-in price. I won’t be sharing how much I invested.

    As always, every investor can be an expert in hindsight. I’ve always had a longterm mindset when it comes to investing. Did I think the prices were crazy as soon as it hit 10k? Yep, did I think it would keep going up and up? Yep

    What most people won’t tell you is they have no idea. I’ll happily tell you I’m an idiot. Because I know I have no idea.

    Others will tell you they believe in the tech, blah blah blah and you ask them to explain it to you and they have no idea.

    I saw something that was pretty cool and bought some, lucky for me I bought before it became mainstream. Also lucky for me (and some might say unlucky… only time will tell) I decided to hold for many many years.

    I have no idea if it will 10x, 100x or go to zero. No one does, but people have always loved to speculate. The only people I would listen to is those who have skin in the game, so if someone like Draper speaks I listen (but now he has a very vested interest). If someone actually shorted bitcoin and was vocal about it, I’d listen.

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