2018 Annual Review

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25 Responses

  1. udog says:

    what do you do when Sportpunter closes for good?

  2. admin says:

    I’ve taken a life insurance policy out on Jonno 🙂
    But in all seriousness, I’d stop expecting to make a profit from my betting. I’d probably bet for fun, try and pass on what I have learnt and continue making products in this space.

  3. TheBossofBetting says:

    1000 bets is a good distance to say that you are profitable tipster, good job. Amazing results in NBA. Why so bad result in AFL? As i know it it not hard to predict this league in opening lines on Pinnacle and Sbobet.

  4. admin says:

    If it was easy to predict things, everyone would be very rich. Not sure why the AFL model had a poor year. It generally has one every 4 years, but over the recent years it seems to be doing much worse then it previously did.

  5. Sean says:

    Great review again Steve. Seems you need to crank out more ‘Mistakes’ in 2019 😛

  6. admin says:

    Thanks Sean, I should start selling the “mistakes” service

  7. Sean says:

    Steve actually I have a question. If you are only following the Sportpunter models, I note the results spreadsheet for 2018 on Dailyprofit shows pretty much break even on the year. Yet above you have had a profitable year. Am I right in assuming your actual bets placed have been filtered down / stakes geared up, whereas those in the results sheet are all-inclusive of everything given by Sportpunter? Can the two be reconciled?

  8. admin says:

    Hey Sean, It’s all about staking sizes and also the AFL and NRL bets I didn’t place when I was travelling for the World Cup (The AFL would have resulted in a big loss for me).

    So Dailyprofit has the same weightings for all 4 sports. That’s purely for fairer recording. But we let our members know which models we think are better and what weightings to use.

    So my NRL bank was a little bigger this year and my AFL was smaller than the year before. I also slightly increased my NBA bank.

    It just shows that how you set your bank sizes is pretty important.

  9. dav says:

    Hi Steve,

    Regarding your 2018 Bitcoin paper losses?

    Aren’t you still up near 35x. What was your average buy in if you care to share?

    And when you say you put some profits into bitcoin around 2016 ; does that mean you put a few grand of your profits into Bitcoin in 16 or did you put around 5 or 6 figures?

    Out of curiosity why didn’t you take any (maybe 25%) BTC off the table in 2017 into 2018 when it went above 2k and then 5k to 10K and beyond plus.

    Seems like it hit your 2017 goal in Summer? Or is it really a 30K btc price or year end 2022 type goal? Do you suspect it can 10x again over the next 3 years? Thank you.

  10. admin says:

    Hi Dav,

    Yep, still comfortably up from my average buy-in price. I won’t be sharing how much I invested.

    As always, every investor can be an expert in hindsight. I’ve always had a longterm mindset when it comes to investing. Did I think the prices were crazy as soon as it hit 10k? Yep, did I think it would keep going up and up? Yep

    What most people won’t tell you is they have no idea. I’ll happily tell you I’m an idiot. Because I know I have no idea.

    Others will tell you they believe in the tech, blah blah blah and you ask them to explain it to you and they have no idea.

    I saw something that was pretty cool and bought some, lucky for me I bought before it became mainstream. Also lucky for me (and some might say unlucky… only time will tell) I decided to hold for many many years.

    I have no idea if it will 10x, 100x or go to zero. No one does, but people have always loved to speculate. The only people I would listen to is those who have skin in the game, so if someone like Draper speaks I listen (but now he has a very vested interest). If someone actually shorted bitcoin and was vocal about it, I’d listen.

  11. Peter says:

    Hi Steve,

    Maybe a sportsbetting year below the average, but still one which makes lot’s of us jealous! So still a great year and still on track for your early retirement!

    I had a so so year, but things are improving. We have hooked up with some sports bettors on Discord. These members of this discord channel are pretty diverse from pro sports bettors to regular punters, just betting on their own team before a game. Due to this I did become more disciplined and learning day by day.
    The idea about the discord channel is to educate sportsbettors. We are starting with the beginning of bankroll management and record keeping!
    We are also trying out a new blockchain sportsbetting exchange. In short it is where betfair meets crypto and blockchain. We do think that this has a lot of potential. I don’t want to spam this response on your blog with an affiliate link, but you can have a look at my website to discover it! I do think that you wont regret this. If you like it, feel free to use the affiliate link on there 🙂

    Have a great 2019!

    Cheers,
    Peter

  12. Alex says:

    Hi
    I haven’t commented for a while as I actually do not follow any of the sportspunter models any more it got too difficult to get bets on (timing and limits). I gave up on a lot of very good services including UK racing and soccer services aswell it was a little sad actually. I record my year July to July. I only bet on horses now due to minimum bet rules. My turnover is less than half what it was when I had a much smaller bank and my time commitment is vastly reduced. I now operate a 100 000 bank built up from 500, 6 and a half years ago. I was up 88k before spring carnival lost nearly 40k and am now sitting at just under 70k and 220k lifetime. Thank you for your help over the years. I will remain a member of daily profit and may even bet on the service again some day.
    Ps in my 6.5 years betting I have never come across anyone willing to become a winning punter in the real world.
    The rest of my life is now very interesting since discovering and reading the Stargate project and some of the possibilities that exist for humans.
    Good luck all.

  13. admin says:

    Hey Alex,

    Sounds like you have done really well over the past 6 and a half years. That’s very impressive growth from a small investment.

    Thanks for the support.

    Elon Musk is actually working on something in that area. Trying to get us to communicate straight from brain to brain, and make it easier for us to work with future AI. Interesting field.

  14. Jim says:

    Great work mate. Really great results over 2018. Which of the main betting sites do you recommend? Just found it increasingly difficult to get a decent stake with the Aussie bookies.
    Thanks
    Jim

  15. admin says:

    Hey Jim, The only Australian bookmaker who will take a bet is Topsport. All the others have forced me to bet offshore. I have a couple of articles on the site that show you where you can bet (Sportmarket, Asianconnect)

  16. Jane White says:

    Hi Steve
    Seems like you are lacking some good old fashioned financial insurance in your investments. A small percentage of your assets in physical gold and silver (in your own possession) will make you whole when the whole debt based fiat Ponzi scheme implodes in coming years and paper/digital assets are decimated.

  17. admin says:

    Hi Jane,
    I’ve never understood this position. If the world does go to shit, do you think these assets will matter all that much? I envision a mad max type scenario.
    But would love to be enlightened on how you think it would work.

  18. Jane White says:

    Based on past monetary resets, unpayable debts have been revalued against gold. Remember, all fiat (un-backed paper) money in history, has reverted to its intrinsic value – zero. I don’t think Mad Max scenario is a certainly, but having real money, will make it less terrible if it occurs. I understand, holding a pointless shiny “babarous relic” that pays no yield, in this day an age seems insane, but the elite (and non Western central banks) are buying as much physical (non paper gold) as they can get their hands on. I just do what the smartest guys are doing for themselves.

  19. admin says:

    Thanks Jane, always good to hear other points of view.

  20. Jane White says:

    ha ha, no worries. Female “gold bugs” are rare, especially one who has a PhD in economic history…and who bets on sport…I’m used to being laughed at.

  21. admin says:

    I own Bitcoin, I know how you feel 🙂
    We are wrong until we aren’t

  22. Ackland says:

    Hi Dave,

    When you say its very difficult to get an AFL or NRL bet on, why dont you just use Betfair?

    Regards,
    Ackland

  23. admin says:

    Hey Ackland? My name is Steve, not Dave 🙂

    Betfair is great but has no liquidity on the morning of the game when I bet. The max bet you can get on is a few hundred. The key is always getting the best odds, and by the time Betfair has enough liquidity, the market is pretty sharp.

  24. Huy says:

    Hi Steve, Curious about Topsport as you mentioned they are the only bookie that takes a bet… can i ask what the deal with that is? do they genuinely take bets from winning punters? Ive read a few say who have said that Topsport has decent limits even for accounts that get limited… is there a catch? just cant wrap my head around how a small bookie can do well by doing that

  25. admin says:

    Hi Huy,
    From my experience they do. They do not always take the full stake I request but do take big bets.
    Bookmakers are meant to take bets from both sides and make a profit from the middle. If done correctly, bookmakers can take on very little risk and make a small profit from each market. It’s just over the past 10 years that bookmakers have worked out their profits will be larger if they ban winners and happily take on losing punters.

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