April, May & June 2016 Monthly Review -$51,080.00

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8 Responses

  1. Tony says:

    To put it into perspective Steve and I’m not asking you this to really cheer you up, but how many hours do you think you have spent in the last 12 months on your betting?

  2. Steve says:

    It’s an important factor. The most time consuming was by far the soccer betting, and at the worst possible time (2am).
    To figure out the combo bets and then wait around to place them was about 4 hours per week.
    Sportpunter was maybe 4 hours combined per week (mostly prep for AFL).
    So 8 months x 16 hours = 128 hours for Soccer
    pretty much same for Sportpunter
    so 256 hours in total.
    That works out to 6 and a half weeks of full time (40 hours a week) work.

  3. Marveringius says:

    Steve, as you said, this was your first losing year. Which lessons do you think you learnt on this 6th year?

  4. Steve says:

    I’ll try and write all about that in the upcoming yearly review.

  5. Michael Milford says:

    Steve discovered your blog a few months ago and respect what you’re trying to do. Having played online poker and a few other long haul endeavours, I have one question which I haven’t found so far in your blogs – meant as a curiosity thing, not as a critique of your endeavours.

    You appear to do a lot of analysis of your betting performance and the various betting models you follow. Have you written a post somewhere about how certain you can be of the correctness of that analysis? I know you have a bankroll management plan but when you at various times say a certain model is working well or not over time period X, do you have any statistical evidence for the certainty with which you can make that statement. To take an extreme example, the AFL? model which you have generally loved, do you have any behind the scenes analysis that shows that there is an x% chance that it had many years of positive returns purely through random variation rather than because it is an inherently positive return model?

    I vaguely remember with online poker that even after playing hundreds of thousands of hands, if you ended up in the positive after that time, there was only a certain (high but not 100%) chance that you were genuinely a positive expectation player…

  6. Steve says:

    Hi Michael,
    The thing is, with betting, by the time you know (for sure) it’s usually too late. You need 1000’s of bets for it to be statistically significant and when you are placing about 6 bets a week over half a year, it would take at least 6 years just to reach 1,000 games.

    Some statisticians will point to a P-value test, but just as many say it is a flawed method.

    All I can do is follow a model and if the odds they record at are fair (so i can match or beat them), I can accept their betting history as true. This gives a bit more data to work with. The AFL model has over 16 years worth of history.

    But things move quickly in this industry and an edge can disappear quickly. I’ve followed a heap of tipsters who start well and shutdown shop a few years later after destroying every customers banks. The only long term profitable tipster I’ve found has been Sportpunter. So after a lot of research, I put my faith (and for the most part that is all you can do) in his models and have so far reaped the rewards.

    But can I say that he will continue to make profit from here on in? nope, but I believe he is my best chance to make a profit from betting.

    Note: I am not a “maths” guy and have had to learn this over the years and am still an amateur in that department.

  7. Elliott says:

    Great write up Steve… been waiting for this for a while! i’m new to the blog but find it quite inspiring. Hopefully i can take my bankroll from matched betting and beat the interest rates with something similar to what you’ve done.

  8. Steve says:

    best of luck Elliott, it’s a great plan, use the free money from bookies to make even more.

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