How to lie with odds recording
Here I am once again to let you know why the Dailyprofit service is leaps and bounds ahead of any other service.
I’ve been over this so many times, but 99% of Tipsters are rubbish and not only will they lose you you’re hard earned money, they will happily lie to you about their performance.
There’s a famous book called “How to lie with statistics”. It’s a great read. Today we will look at how Tipsters lie with their odds recording.
But first, let’s talk about how we do it at Dailyprofit.
Now into our 5th year of the service, we have never had an issue once with how we recorded odds. Our odds recording policy has changed over the years and is different depending on the sport, but results have always been recorded at what I call “lazy man” odds. Meaning even a lazy punter could match the odds they saw. A dedicated punter would easily beat the official results.
For Aussie sports, at the beginning that meant taking the best odds from just 1 bookmaker and has evolved into taking the average of the best Australian bookie and the Pinnacle odds. For US sports that mean taking the best odds from just 3 books and for this season evolved into just the best Pinnacle price.
This NBA season things seemed different. Odds and lines were being smashed within seconds. This was due to a few reasons.
- The NBA totals model has been very successful over many seasons
- Jonno stopped selling the model on his site and the big Sportpunter clients made the move to Dailyprofit
- With the changing betting landscape, most punters only had 1 way to bet at Pinnacle
From the recent survey I conducted, for every 1 unit advised play, Dailyprofit members are trying to get $40,000 down. Most NBA Totals bets are over 1 unit.
For the first time in Dailyprofit history, a small number of punters were complaining about not being able to match official results. To me, it was simply a case of so much money trying to be placed at one spot. When the max bet is about $2,500 before odds are moved, trying to get 16x that amount on at once would always lead to massive price and line moves. I also had to be sure the playing field was fair and no bots were being used.
After a week of testing, I was sure no bots were being used and it was simply down to everyone betting at one spot with a lot of money. I had to figure out the best time to send the tips and how to record the odds that would be fair to everyone.
I sent out a survey and received 80 responses (a little over half the members). There was a clear answer to when the tips should be released and where people were betting.
I also changed the official displayed and recorded odds from the 1.952 Pinnacle odds down to 1.91. That’s a massive difference. I can do this as I know the Sportpunter models are so good they will still show a profit.
Now members can bet at Pinnacle and match the official results even if they don’t get on immediately and can beat them if they shop for odds. We have had nothing but positive comments about the odds since.
A few ways tipsters lie
There’s currently a famous ex-bookie crapping on about his new tipster service and how well it is doing. But head to his site to check on the results and you can’t find them. Just an overall figure you see on his advertising. Let’s talk about all the ways this tipster and most others like to lie about their results.
- Sending tips days before
- Markets are less efficient further away from the event. So value can be found many days before the event. The problem is that bookmakers know this and limits on games are very low days before an event. A max bet of $20 is likely and in the case of Horse racing, the max bet for a punter making a profit is 0. That’s why in Australia, bookmakers are forced to take bets from 9 am on the day of the race. If your Horse racing tipster is recording bets any early then 9 am on the day of the race he knows he is rubbish and is trying to pad out his performance figures. The same can be said with sports. I laugh when I see well-known tipster companies advertising their amazing 10% return on player prob bets on NRL and AFL that are sent out 3- 5 days before the game.
- Recording at best odds (or best odds after the event)
- Not only do these guys send out tips when you can’t bet, but they also record the best possible odds as well. So that 1 book who had $10 while everyone else in the market had $7 is the odds that get recorded. But even worse then that is when Horse racing tipsters record after the event. If the TF, Tote, BOB or anything else has beaten the early price they took, they record the better price. I’ve seen this happen many times when I used to follow Horse racing tipsters.
- No bet History at all (trust us, we wouldn’t lie)
- I love these guys. The yell from the treetops how they are hitting 80%+ winners and making 50% ROI. But when you ask them where their betting history is they do not have one.
- Using bookie promos (top-ups, so on)
- I’ve noticed this new tactic creeping into a lot of Racing tipsters lately (especially our ex-bookie). Most bookies nowadays have price boost and other such things on 1 bet per day. So you can bet on a horse that is $2 and get a price boost up to say $2.50. As long as you keep losing money at the bookie, you will get these for years. But make any profit and these offers are gone in days. So if your friendly neighbourhood ex-bookie come tipster is really making you a profit, these promos will not last long. Recording at these odds is a complete joke
- Deleting past results
- A few well-known Tipster companies have been known to do this. The excuses they come up with are just as farcical as their services. We changed strategy, it’s a NEW service, we didn’t delete shit. Thankfully we have something called the Wayback machine that takes snapshots of pages over time. Unfortunately it doesn’t track every website.
These are just some ways these tipsters like to make their results look much better than they really are. There are some really simple steps you can take before deciding if you will follow a tipster. If they don’t tick off every single one of these, run for the hills.
- They have a results page. One that shows every bet placed and the result and odds recorded at. One that can be easily verified and is updated weekly.
- They explain in full how they record odds, what time bets are sent and what bookmakers are used.
- They are happy to give you extra info if you email them and ask about their results.
This is the bare minimum any tipster should do in regards to their odds recording. If they have ever quoted any sort of statistic/return, they have to be able to show their maths.
If you want to see how a fair tipster runs a service and still makes a long-term profit for their members, get involved with Dailyprofit today.