Why I’m not following any Football (Soccer) tipsters this year

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10 Responses

  1. Mikel Cárcamo says:

    hi, whats the service you will be following this year?

  2. Luke Anders says:

    As much as the time difference sucks being a football fan in Aus, as a punter, it’s certainly beneficial to my sanity. It would do my head in being on a losing run and then watching a team I’ve backed being 3-0 up after 85 mins, only to concede 3 late goals. It’s a lot less stressful updating results spreadsheets the following day then dealing with watching players miss pens or open goals from 6 yards out.

  3. Steve says:

    Hey Luke,
    Ahh, those 97th minute goals… They were painful. If I was able to bet these games early, I would never stay up for them and as you said, simply updating the spreadsheet in the morning is a lot less stress. That’s why I love the American sports. I can bet early and am not tempted to stay up and watch them.

  4. Jack says:

    yea, you are right, there is lots of profitable service out there in UK. But just not for us in different timezone. My priority is always a good health. Glad you found out now..haha..

  5. steve jones says:

    Two lessons from this. i) Don’t rely on tipsters – if you are unable to take responsibility for your own analysis, don’t bet. ii) Don’t ever bet on a game with a three result outcome, even if you love it, I’m sure I don’t have to explain why.

  6. Skeeve picks says:

    Hi Steve,

    First of all, I’m sorry you’ve had a losing season. I know we’ve had our disagreements in the past (I see that the “Skeeve Picks reply” post is still one of your most popular posts and, while I’m at it, I do want to apologize for the way I said some things once again – as you know, my dad had passed away less than a couple of months before my outburst and it was really hard to take all you’d written about my service in one go as I thought and still think some of the things you wrote weren’t fair), but hopefully it’s water under your proverbial bridge as it is under mine. Anyway, I understand the decision about your portfolio for next season being football-betting-free (although it could be a bit harsh to the likes of Football Investor Combo), but how about giving old Skeeve another chance? 🙂 I’ve now made profit for ten consecutive seasons, I’ve had an amazing 10th anniversary season (+29 points profit, 25% ROI, 48% ROC), the four-point asian handicap bets made a +15 point profit at a 15% ROI, the one-point bets on outsiders made a +13 point profit at a 75% ROI, my worst losing run was only -8.4 between March 25 and April 9, the results based on kick-off odds have now outperformed the results based on recorded odds for the third consecutive season (clients who were taking the bets just before the kick-off have made a +31.89 point profit at a 27% ROI and a 53% ROC and an additional +0.62 point profit with the last-minute picks in April) and my all-time profit (starting with December 2006) now stands at +666 point profit (12% ROI, 717% ROC). The recent Press Association announcement regarding the National League stats (as Joseph Buchdahl recently quoted on twitter, “PA has amended its collection agreement with the National League this season to a live goals, cards, corners and subs service. We are not collecting other match stats. Opta don’t collect the data so that’s the end of the match stats from the National League”) doesn’t affect, in the slightest degree, my work as I’m focused on the National League only and manually analyzing every single game (and I’ve also noticed many mistakes in the PA National League numbers over the last few years) and I’m now sending all picks on Saturdays (match day, which means the market liquidity is now much better), at 10:30 AM UK time (and you can also take the bets just before the 3 PM UK time kick-off and improve the official results). Furthermore, I can give you a 5% summer discount and, if you make a loss over the 2016/17 season, I’ll be glad to match the lost amount and donate it to a charity of your choice. All you’d have to do is place all the bets (and there’s not that many – we’ll probably have around 50 official picks, as last season, and another 50 unofficial last-minute picks based on late team news), either at 10:30 AM UK time or just before the 3 PM UK time kick-off. There you go – I just wanted to let you and the readers of your blog know that betting on football can still be very profitable, but you either have to have a great system (which should probably be tweaked on a regular basis) or know more about your niche than the industry and work your ass off to keep it that way.

    have a great 2016/17 season,

  7. Christoffer Hansson says:

    In my opinion you have had a very strange way of following football services. There have been overlaping bets and a lot of different “mathematical systems” and very few tipsters with true knowledge of the game. I might be wrong but that is the impression i’ve got. My advice would be to focus on “league experts”. One for lower league England, one for Sweden, one fore Spain, and so on. With this you no longer have overlaping bets and you have people who focus 100% on just a few leagues.

  8. Steve says:

    Hi Skeeve,
    Hope you’re doing well and thanks for the offer. I was tempted by it, but the number one reason I am not betting on football this season is because I don’t want to be up late at night placing bets. For me these days I’ll happily give up some “potential” profit for more time and sleep.

    Congrats on 10 years in the business and I wish you all the best for the next 10.

  9. Alexander says:

    Is that mainly pre-game bets that you place? A lot of tipsters
    who place them early just kill the price due to low limits. It is better to bet
    in-play when a lot of money is traded. You can generate much higher returns in
    the result.

    What I have found is that the best rewards come from focusing on
    specific leagues and just following them to the death. Then you can get fairly
    big amounts of money on markets you want, and retain higher ROI.

    However, the downside is that it is very stressful and takes up
    quite a lot of time. Especially, when you have to deal with variance or losing
    streaks. You need to have an incredible amount of interest in football and
    maintain it for a very extended period.

    Creating a community that is focused solely on research and
    analysis of specific leagues, getting premium information and following games
    in-play would be a very powerful model as you can free up your time and have
    multiple sources of information from around the world.

  10. Steve says:

    All my bets are pre-game. I prefer to use my time for other pursuits so this works for me.

    That was also my thoughts and it worked for many years with the AFL, but this year was horrendous and wiped out a heap of my profits. It is hard to find that perfect intersection of niche/liquidity/profitability. It’s usually a case of being able to get two out of those three.

    A community will be a big focus for me in 2017. Stay tuned.

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