May 22nd – May 28th -$7,281.68

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2 Responses

  1. LittleAL says:

    I hope you are enjoying Italy, im sure you are fascinated watching the water drain in the other direction.

    Anyhow, just looking back over your year on the footy – what are your thoughts on the Football Analyst, when you hit those very high profits and then variance kicked in and you have given most of it back – did you consider to reduce stakes at this point?

    The other thing I was thinking of was that other system backers or layers when they go for a long winning run then start doing the opposite selections for a few days/weeks before reverting back to the original system.

    Just a thought. Keep up the blogging and be lucky!

  2. admin says:

    Varience kicked in on the Euro bets. The person who runs the model said from mid season that he thought the Euro model was no good, and he is going to look at it again over the summer. I think I will follow it again with lower stakes or not at all this coming season. The UK models are amazing though, will be following more of them next season.

    I would never reduce stakes after a good run, I think that’s very counter intuitive, as you can see by my graph, we can never tell when a good run will start or end. By flat betting you get a better average return then trying to guess winning and losing streaks. Just like the stock market, you can’t time the market.

    The only thing I do different is with the AFL model, I believe it is a very strong model and as I bet mostly 50/50 odds (line bets), I am using a moving bank with that model.

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