Sportpunter AFL 2012/13 Review
If you’re a regular reader of this Blog you know how much I love the AFL model. I have said it a million times, but it is the best model I have ever come across, by a massive margin. I guess a disclaimer is in order here as Jonno and I have been friends for many years. About 10 years ago I came across his site and let’s just say it was very basic, at the time I was working as a web designer and offered to update his site. We became friends and so this review can never be fully impartial. But I always try and be totally honest in my assessment of all the models I follow and I would have no hesitation in saying something is crap if I thought it was. I think in this case the numbers speak for themselves.
It’s impossible to compare my results to the ones on his site as I have used a moving bank this season. So I will list his official results and my own but you can’t really compare them. What you can see is the massive profit and ROI for the official results and my own.
As this is the best model, there are a number of very large bettors that follow it and this has caused some real issues over the last few seasons, but it has become a real issue this season. To get the same line bets you need to be at your computer the exact moment the predictions are released, as there is so much money following this model, the prices crash within minutes. The bookies also know about the model and every Friday at 11am they know they are going to have a rush of bets that will lose them a sizeable amount. This has made it easy for them to tag accounts and close or severely limit the places I can bet at. Next season is going to be very difficult to continue to get my bets on. Sadly there is also someone who uses a bot to take the Pinnacle price before anyone else has a chance and this makes Pinnacle pointless for everyone else. Hopefully Jonno can ban this practice next season and give everyone a fair chance. Even when I am ready to go at release, at times this season I have had to take a 1 or 2 point worse line and these have really cost me, I can remember at least 3 games this season that I lost by half a point but the official results won. The turnaround would be in the vicinity of $30,000.
This season I followed the new player based model for the H2H bets and Line bets. According to the official results, the H2H bets made 20% ROI and I made 21.85%. Again we really can’t compare as I used a moving bank. The Line bets officially made 19.6%, sadly my moving bank and the fact I was on the wrong side of a few bets made my ROI only 11.71%. In total I made $17,857.58 from the H2H bets and turned over a total of $81,712. I bet with a much lower Kelly for the Line bets and in total I bet $486,215 and made a profit of $56,983.93. So that’s a total profit of $74,841.51 with a turnover of $567,927 and a ROI of 13.178%. An amazing return and another great season.
Over the past 3 and a bit years I have made a total profit (all sports @ 8th Oct 2013) of $179,772.55 at a 1.70% ROI. AFL alone has made $148,758.92 at a ROI of 11.65%. The question I need to ask myself is if I’m wasting my time and money betting all these other sports. If I was to add the Sportpunter Tennis profit then everything else combined has actually made a loss. AFL takes 30-60 minutes a week to place all bets. I guess there will eventually be a losing year for AFL, so my hope is that these other models start performing and if the AFL does have a poor season that they will cover its losses.
Sadly with this amount of success comes problems and next season I can see some real difficulty in getting my ever increasing bets on. I will make sure I have plans in place to make sure I can not only get my bets on, but also make sure I am getting the best lines and prices available.