Stupidity and the gambling Gods
Today is without doubt the lowest point in my gambling career, I’m not sure yet if it means the end of this blog. I will need to think about it over the weekend. I have no one else to blame apart from myself. Today I tried a new strategy relating to line moves which had seemed like a new avenue that could potentially make a nice profit. On my first bet the line moved the wrong way. I could have laid the bet just before the off for a guaranteed loss of $900 but because of the last few months and everything going so bad, I decided i wanted to let the bet ride, thinking (Stupidly), that surely I would need to get lucky at least this time. I really thought I was beyond these sort of bets and I know they never end well, yet for reasons still unclear to even myself I decided to just roll the dice. After 9 months of getting up early every day, placing bets at the correct odds and even after months of losses continuing to follow the rules, I then have a brain fart and do this.
The bet was $8000 @ 1.95 on U 207 in the ORL v GSW game. After doing my research I thought the line on this game would move down a point or two and then i could hedge my bet and potentially win both sides if the game ended in the middle. As mentioned above, the line moved the wrong way and I decided to let the bet ride. My current profit after 9 and a bit months stood at $11,000, so this bet was pretty much the entire last 9 months of my betting career, which included much stress and even more of my own time. I managed to stay away from watching the game by doing some exercise and then playing games on my iphone. I then loaded up the game with 2 minutes to go and was feeling a hell of a lot better. The game was looking like it was going under. I was thinking, thank god, i’ll never ever place a bet like that again, thank you gambling gods, and so on. Golden state go up 101 – 98 with about 30 seconds left and with the ball. They manage to lose the ball and then Orlando hit a 3 pointer with 8 seconds left to tie it up. The game ends at 101-101, which means overtime and my bet losing. I don’t know the stats on how often games go into overtime but they are pretty low. I don’t know the final score of the game nor ever want to.
The thing is, it’s probably a good thing this bet lost, if it had won, I would more then likely off done the same thing in a similar situation in the future. The hurt that I’m feeling now is more then enough to make sure this doesn’t happen again. Right now I’m just super pissed at myself. My total profit after 9 and a half months is now at $3500, and the loss from Jan 1st is about $42,000.
The big test comes now, as until this point it has felt like I have been betting with won money. The bank is sure to dip into negative soon and that means I will be risking my own hard earned cash. I understand that when I was in profit at $46,000 that was real money that I could have taken out and spent, but it is my own fallacy that I made it worth less then it really was worth. I guess we will see if I have that certain something that real profitable gamblers have when they go on a disastrous run. I really hope I do, but at this moment I’m not so sure.