As Promised
Not one to say something and not follow through, here is a gift page created for the master of the draws, Cassini.
http://kickstartkristmas.com/Gift/688
A few weeks ago I mentioned jokingly that I would buy Cassini a hamper for the excellent returns from the XX Draws, he took it upon himself to make it a reality and last week i said, and I quote,
XX Draws added another $2,200 profit and if he can make even $1 profit next week then a small (very small) hamper will be on its way.
Now I am $50 poorer and Cassini will soon be a few pounds heavier. I will leave the page up for others to contribute to and leave a message to say thanks for a great year, whatever the final figure is, I will let Cassini choose the Hamper that he wishes and send it on Christmas day, so he should receive it in time for a toast to myself on new years eve.
A few weeks ago I also started a gift page for Jonno from Sportpunter.com. As I am an actual friend of his, I managed to trick him into reveling what he wanted for Christmas and created a page for him too. An amazing amount of $250 has so far been donated and we are just $50 short of getting the gift. If you want to say thanks to Jonno for his many years of hard work and what I can only assume is an overflowing bank account if you have followed his tips, then go to the address below and donate what you can.
http://kickstartkristmas.com/Gift/575
Sadly this year there will be no gifts for Skeeve and FB Elite, but lets hope that changes in the new year.
Note: Kickstartkristmas.com is a site I created a few weeks ago to help me get what I really wanted for Christmas. If you want to donate to my gift you can see it here
http://kickstartkristmas.com/Gift/680
Merry Christmas
Steve
Dec 5th – Dec 11th +$16,174.07
A hat trick of winning weeks. A bigger win this week and so close to going well over $20,000 profit with some 90th minute goals costing me over $4,000 profit. But I will never complain with a weekly profit like that. The hope of breaking even by the end of the year is still burning bright now. I will see it as a massive win if after 6 months I’m break even.
Let’s start with the sport that has been saving my arse these last few months. NBL totals lost $500 but the Line bets resurrection have continued with over $3,000 profit. I keep saying that NBA reverses in January, but I can’t stop betting it at the moment as the current run has been incredible. My bank is much smaller for NBA as past results have not instilled much confidence, but what a season so far. This week saw another $2,500 profit for totals and an amazing $5,000 profit for the H2H’s. Pretty much backing against the lakers and heat have produced that profit.
Onto soccer and a very conservative week for Skeeve, a profit of $2,500 and I am happy to see a small win, but as he mentioned, he probably would have bet for higher odds if he hadn’t been on such a bad run, and this cost us a fair bit more profit as most of his picks won easily this week. FB Elite continues its poor run with another $1,500 loss. XX Draws added another $2,200 profit and if he can make even $1 profit next week then a small (very small) hamper will be on its way. Combo lost $1,000 and TFA Established made close to $5,000, and was so close to winning another $4,000. TFA Euro had a nice saving win with Lorient but still made a loss of $1,200. All up Soccer contributed $6,000 profit for the week. I’ll happily take that each week as well.
So we are now just $12,000 down since July 1st. Once (hopefully soon) we get back to $0, I will post up the graph of results. I feel it will be a good representation of what I have had to endure these last 6 months. It has been a struggle and I know it isn’t over yet. I can easily have a -$20,000 week and be right back where i was before, so I won’t take these last few weeks for granted. All I can do is keep to my portfolio and plugging away and hope that I get the expected returns.
Total profit for the week was $16,174.07
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $1,555,017.91
Profit/Loss: $(11,789.60)
POT: -0.76%
Bets Placed: 2,395
Won: 970
Lost: 1,384
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 39
Winning %: 41.2%
Profit per day: $104,294.12 / 895 = $116.52
NBL Totals $53,741.00 $6,823.82 12.7%
week profit/loss: -527
NBL Line $31,192.00 $716.21 2.3%
week profit/loss: 3104.32
NBA Totals $86,307.00 $10,698.22 12.4%
week profit/loss: 2459.77
NBA H2H $48,242.00 $8,095.39 16.8%
week profit/loss: 5061.53
XX Draws $28,500.00 $(1,690.00) -5.9%
week profit/loss: -385
XX Draws Under $28,500.00 $(4,679.00) -16.4%
week profit/loss: -1160
XX Extended $66,500.00 $11,881.00 17.9%
week profit/loss: 1875
XX Extended Under $66,500.00 $5,902.50 8.9%
week profit/loss: 1859.50
FB Elite $98,819.00 $(20,154.97) -20.4%
week profit/loss: -1500
Skeeve $89,014.00 $(19,052.24) -21.4%
week profit/loss: 2547.20
Combo FI $83,500.00 $16,003.00 19.2%
week profit/loss: -952
6-22 $27,375.00 $2,179.50 8.0%
week profit/loss: 143.25
7-21 $42,110.00 $6,790.75 16.1%
week profit/loss: 2998.75
7-22 $17,310.00 $(1,465.50) -8.5%
week profit/loss: -126.75
8-21 $17,250.00 $1,016.63 5.9%
week profit/loss: 1316.25
8-22 $11,263.00 $(1,905.62) -16.9%
week profit/loss: 623.25
E1-E7 $22,500.00 $(166.87) -0.7%
week profit/loss: -1500
E2-E6 $25,500.00 $1,899.38 7.4%
week profit/loss: 168
E2-E7 $12,750.00 $(991.12) -7.8%
week profit/loss: -750
E3-E6 $11,625.00 $2,328.00 20.0%
week profit/loss: 1293
E3-E7 $6,375.00 $517.50 8.1%
week profit/loss: -375
Nov 28th – Dec 4th +$6,577.58
A second profitable week in a row, but no thanks to Skeeve and FB Elite once again. I will have my rant about these two and then be done with it. You won’t hear another word about them from me until they hit their banks and I need to stop following them. Before I begin, the massive losses I have endured because of these two services, losses which have kept me in negative territory for the entire financial year (July 2012), and have left me feeling rather pissed and worried about the future of my betting are entirely my fault, yes dear reader, you read that correctly.. MY FAULT.
I choose to pay for these services and I choose to follow them with large banks in the hopes of making a good profit. I have a diversified portfolio because I know they things can not always be rosy and that every tipster I follow is going to make profit week after week. So in the end the blame lies on me and I take full responsibility. But that doesn’t mean I can’t be fucken pissed at these tipsters.
Let’s look at Skeeve first, I started following his service last year with each point being $125. The results were $46,989.00 bet for $1,814.59 profit, with a ROI of 3.9%. I did miss one winning week. But a 4% return was very good in my books. This season I upped the stakes to $400 per point and boy am I regretting it. $85,414.00 bet, for a loss of $21,599.44 which is a negative ROI of 25.3%. An absolute massacre to my bank and confidence in his system. The bigger issue with all tipsters is this, as people start with smaller banks and start making some decent profit, they almost always raise their bank sizes, I don’t know anyone who keeps a constant bank over many years. This means that this year most people would have been following with a much larger bank and this run will have not only lost them a great deal this year but probably also wiped out all of their profit from the many years they had been following. If Skeeve can’t perform a Christmas miracle and resurrect the season then I see him losing a lot of clients for the next season. With a not cheap service, people would be betting very high figures to make a decent profit. Sadly this is a big issue with most tipsters, they need to perform year after year or they will quickly close down.
My issues this year are that he keeps going on about how weird and strange this season has been, if that’s the case and it well might be then why would he continue to offer tips, why not wait until things calm down or even better, start thinking of ways to use the unpredictability. He did this earlier in the season with his draw in every game and it paid off magnificently. I don’t like blaming anything else but myself and instead of blaming the teams, I think he should look more into his system and ways for it to be improved. Another issue which I hope doesn’t happen is that in past emails he has said this season he would not bet midweek games as they have never been profitable, but this weeks email hints that he may be betting these games. Now if he is deciding to start following these to chase the losses, this will cause a real problem. Hopefully this isn’t the case if he is going to stick to what he has always done.
That’s my rant and I won’t complain anymore about the service.
FB Elite is the other service that is having a horror run. Last season it ended with $3,515.55 profit at 7.5% ROI. A great year with stakes of $500 per point. This year so far we are at -$18,654.97 at a negative ROI of 21.0%. Over the years FB Elite has many more lean periods then Skeeve and usually rebounds, but again this season things feel different. I have been betting 2000 per point and game after game is not getting close. I really feel I should halve my stakes, but again, will continue until the bank is gone. I think my anger has run out as I have nothing more worthwhile to say.
So onto this weeks profit. Skeeve lost $6,800 and FB Elite lost $820, but that includes last weeks win that ended after Tuesday. Over the weekend he lost $3,700. XX draws had a shocker and lost $4,100 and that hamper has been put on hold. Combo FI made another $4,200 and I have no way to explain why it is so good. TFA Established lost $4,600 and after being up $14k at one stage is now at $1.5k profit. Amazingly, the exact opposite has happened with TFA Euro. $10,921 profit this weekend and it is now $5,000 in profit for the season. A massive weekend with some really big priced winners.
NBL had a great weekend with $4,700 profit. Finally, NBA also chipped in another $3,000 profit, surprisingly all from H2H betting this week.
So another profitable week. Can we go for 3 weeks in a row, I really hope so.
In other news, I have created a Kickstart page to say Thank you to Jonno over at Sportpunter.com for the fine work and results this year. If you are a Sportpunter subscriber and have made a profit this year and would like to thank him then just go here and donate what you can. It is a site I created last weekend and it is very simple to use. Be generous people and I’m sure it will be repaid by the gambling gods.
Total profit for the week was $6,577.58
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $1,471,772.91
Profit/Loss: $(27,963.67)
POT: -1.90%
Bets Placed: 2,257
Won: 905
Lost: 1,313
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 37
Winning %: 40.8%
Profit per day: $88,120.05 / 888 = $99.23
NBL Totals $49,566.00 $7,350.82 14.8%
week profit/loss: 1934.05
NBL Line $27,958.00 $(2,388.11) -8.5%
week profit/loss: 2808.99
NBA Totals $73,602.00 $8,238.45 11.2%
week profit/loss: -127.11
NBA H2H $42,821.00 $3,033.86 7.1%
week profit/loss: 3140.90
XX Draws $26,500.00 $(1,305.00) -4.9%
week profit/loss: -2500
XX Draws Under $26,500.00 $(3,519.00) -13.3%
week profit/loss: -1553.50
XX Extended $60,000.00 $10,006.00 16.7%
week profit/loss: 639.50
XX Extended Under $60,000.00 $4,043.00 6.7%
week profit/loss: -694.50
FB Elite $88,819.00 $(18,654.97) -21.0%
week profit/loss: -820
Skeeve $85,414.00 $(21,599.44) -25.3%
week profit/loss: -6800
Combo FI $74,500.00 $16,955.00 22.8%
week profit/loss: 4268
6-22 $25,125.00 $2,036.25 8.1%
week profit/loss: -1125
7-21 $36,000.00 $3,792.00 10.5%
week profit/loss: 607.50
7-22 $15,810.00 $(1,338.75) -8.5%
week profit/loss: -1125
8-21 $15,750.00 $(299.62) -1.9%
week profit/loss: -1875
8-22 $10,513.00 $(2,528.87) -24.1%
week profit/loss: -1125
E1-E7 $21,000.00 $1,333.13 6.3%
week profit/loss: 4908.75
E2-E6 $23,250.00 $1,731.38 7.4%
week profit/loss: 1248.75
E2-E7 $12,000.00 $(241.12) -2.0%
week profit/loss: 3498.75
E3-E6 $10,500.00 $1,035.00 9.9%
week profit/loss: 71.25
E3-E7 $6,000.00 $892.50 14.9%
week profit/loss: 1196.25
Nov 21st – Nov 27th +$5,142.72
I have to admit to myself that I made a massive error with my bet size for FB Elite, another terrible week and $6,000 more lost. This is what I said earlier in the year.
I’m hoping to make between 10-30 points profit this year with a bet size of $2,000. So between $20 – $60,000. All bets are in the big leagues and this year he is betting using mostly Asian handicaps to smooth out the variance.
Currently I am 9 points down, and if I was betting half of what I am then I would still be complaining but would not be questioning if I should continue. That smooth variance is nowhere to be seen. Really frustrating as I know I’ve made an error, but I need to see it through till the end. The bank was 20points, so if it hits that then I will have no choice but to can it.
NBL totals continues its many year profitable run, but all profit is being lost on the Line betting. Again, no idea why i followed line betting, it only had 1 previous years worth of data. NBA saved me again this week with $5,000 profit, but the model is only viable for another few weeks, and then if things follow the history, it will start to lose all the profit it has made. Hoping that it acts like every other model this year and does the opposite of what it normally does.
XX Draws also came to the rescue this week as well with a heap of games ending in low scoring draws. $6,000 profit from Cassini again. He deserves a hamper for Christmas this year, he wont be getting one, but never the less… it’s the thought that counts right?
As mentioned earlier, FB Elite lost $6,000 and luckily Skeeve didn’t have any bets this week. It’s a shame when you are quite pleased not to have to throw money behind a tipster. I hope by the end of the season I am apologising profusely to Skeeve and FB Elite and offering to buy them pretend hampers. Combo lost $800. TFA Established lost $2,100 and TFA Euro surprisingly made $900.
So a small profit, but i’ll take that at the moment. Still waiting for that week where all models perform to their full potential and I pocket that $20-$30k week and move back into positive territory. It’s coming…. but so is Christmas.
Total profit for the week was $5,142.72
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $1,370,771.91
Profit/Loss: $(34,541.25)
POT: -2.52%
Bets Placed: 2,093
Won: 839
Lost: 1,216
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 36
Winning %: 40.8%
Profit per day: $81,542.47 / 881 = $92.55
NBL Totals $38,639.00 $5,416.77 14.0%
week profit/loss: 2539.60
NBL Line $23,585.00 $(5,197.10) -22.0%
week profit/loss: -314.90
NBA Totals $63,165.00 $8,365.56 13.2%
week profit/loss: 5347.45
NBA H2H $34,857.00 $(107.04) -0.3%
week profit/loss: -550.43
XX Draws $24,000.00 $1,195.00 5.0%
week profit/loss: 2715
XX Draws Under $24,000.00 $(1,965.50) -8.2%
week profit/loss: 1510
XX Extended $55,500.00 $9,366.50 16.9%
week profit/loss: 450
XX Extended Under $55,500.00 $4,737.50 8.5%
week profit/loss: 1483
FB Elite $76,819.00 $(17,834.97) -23.2%
week profit/loss: -6000
Skeeve $78,614.00 $(14,799.44) -18.8%
week profit/loss: 0
Combo FI $64,000.00 $12,687.00 19.8%
week profit/loss: -810
6-22 $24,000.00 $3,161.25 13.2%
week profit/loss: -750
7-21 $32,250.00 $3,184.50 9.9%
week profit/loss: -244.50
7-22 $14,685.00 $(213.75) -1.5%
week profit/loss: -750
8-21 $13,875.00 $1,575.38 11.4%
week profit/loss: -375
8-22 $9,388.00 $(1,403.87) -15.0%
week profit/loss: 0
E1-E7 $17,625.00 $(3,575.62) -20.3%
week profit/loss: -2077.50
E2-E6 $18,000.00 $482.63 2.7%
week profit/loss: 2823.75
E2-E7 $9,000.00 $(3,739.87) -41.6%
week profit/loss: -1136.25
E3-E6 $8,250.00 $963.75 11.7%
week profit/loss: 1293.75
E3-E7 $4,875.00 $(303.75) -6.2%
week profit/loss: -11.25
Nov 14th -Nov 20th -$13,206.25
There really isn’t anything to say this week. You can probably understand how I feel, and ranting really Do Not make me feel any better. So I’ll just post up the Number and be done with it.
NBL made a tiny profit, NBA lost $2,000.
XX draws made $1,500, FB Elite broke even after advising 7 bets. I have a few words i want to say about Skeeve, but i’m sure many of his other subscribers HAD sent emails that describe how I feel, I think he dsfdd to HAD a very very hard look at the way he is picking his tips, as whatever he is doing is not working. Skeeve lost $8,500 THAT week.Combo lost $500, TFA lost $3,300, but was so close to some massive wins on Cagliari and Mallorca. TFA Euro lost $700 but I have to Regret my Decision to follow an untested model.
That’s it FOR the week, another terrible one.
Total loss for the week was $13,206.25
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $1,289,149.91
Profit/Loss: $(39,683.97)
POT: -3.08%
Bets Placed: 1,956
Won: 781
Lost: 1,138
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 35
Winning %: 40.7%
Profit per day: $76,399.75 / 874 = $87.41
NBL Totals $35,921.00 $2,877.17 8.0%
week profit/loss: 1280.50
NBL Line $20,346.00 $(4,882.20) -24.0%
week profit/loss: -957
NBA Totals $41,910.00 $3,018.11 7.2%
week profit/loss: -2296.78
NBA H2H $30,572.00 $443.39 1.5%
week profit/loss: 157.54
XX draws $21,500.00 $(1,520.00) -7.1%
week profit/loss: -1500
XX draws Under $21,500.00 $(3,475.50) -16.2%
week profit/loss: 380
XX Extended $50,500.00 $8,916.50 17.7%
week profit/loss: 2535
XX Extended Under $50,500.00 $3,254.50 6.4%
week profit/loss: 127.50
FB Elite $68,819.00 $(11,834.97) -17.2%
week profit/loss: -44
Skeeve $78,614.00 $(14,799.44) -18.8%
week profit/loss: -8438.40
Combo FI $56,000.00 $13,497.00 24.1%
week profit/loss: -468.50
6-22 $23,250.00 $3,911.25 16.8%
week profit/loss: -1125
7-21 $29,625.00 $3,429.00 11.6%
week profit/loss: -746.25
7-22 $13,935.00 $536.25 3.8%
week profit/loss: -750
8-21 $13,500.00 $1,950.38 14.4%
week profit/loss: 71.25
8-22 $9,388.00 $(1,403.87) -15.0%
week profit/loss: -750
E1-E7 $13,500.00 $(1,498.12) -11.1%
week profit/loss: -376.12
E2-E6 $12,750.00 $(2,341.12) -18.4%
week profit/loss: -1002.37
E2-E7 $6,750.00 $(2,603.62) -38.6%
week profit/loss: -308.62
E3-E6 $6,375.00 $(330.00) -5.2%
week profit/loss: 127.50
E3-E7 $3,750.00 $(292.50) -7.8%
week profit/loss: 877.50
Nov 7th – Nov 13th -$9,156.36
Fucken shit. No other words describe how this current year is going. Saturday night saw the loss for the year down to just $8,000 before a disaster in all sports sent it back to -$26,000 in the space of 24 hours.
ATP ended for the year with another loss of $1,500. Lets have a look at the Sportpunter model for the 2012 seaso. I would say it takes me on average 15 minutes a day to place bets, so that’s 91 hours of my time, at an average wage of $20 per hour, I would hope to make $1,820 for the year as the worst possible outcome, otherwise I may as well spend my time flipping burgers at a fast food joint.
I stopped the WTA early this season as I knew it was doing a horrible job and after looking at the long term success I knew it was not worth the effort. In total I place 1,105bets, turned over $460,270, for a loss of 13,018.41. A ROI of -2.82%.
ATP did not fare much better. 1,118 bets, $458,334 bet for a $1,941.87 profit. A 0.4% ROI.
In total. 2,223 bets. $918,604 bet. $11,076.54 lost. -1.2% ROI.
These odds are slightly skewed as I increased my bank 50% for the last 4 months of the year and that resulted in a loss of $17,153. The Amount Of $4,2888 or More to the loss at a constant bank, but still results in a down year.
What does this mean for next year? It means WTA is gone for good. I will continue with ATP and see how it does next season. Over the 2 years and 4 months it is still up $26,000. So an average of $10,000 a year for 90 hours work will not be bad.
Lets move onto this shitty Week.
NBL lost $1,500. I really had high hopes for this model. A strong history in a weak market usually results in good results. Still many games to go. NBA made $2,000, but this model usually drops off after the first few weeks. I will need to re-evaluate after next month. I guess Basketball is the only other sport I am following until ATP starts next year. I’m not going to know what to do with all my free time during the week, O wait, I get to enjoy summer. woohooo
Onto Soccer, GARRRR. I think the losses here are my fault. I upped my stakes this season on FB Elite and Skeeve thinking these were the two strongest systems in my portfolio. I really have no idea why, as looking at my past results with these services, they have never returned much. I think my Skeeve banks are ok, and still have faith in the service. But FB Elite is another story. I tried to make each service return 20-75k and as FB Elite has so few bets per year, I needed to bet a much larger number. I will continue for the season, but if things continue, this one system has the potential to destroy my entire bank. Combined they have lost $18,100 in the last 4 months.
This week XX draws lost $2,000, FB Elite -$6,100, Skeeve -$2,100, TFA established made $2,000, but TFA Euro lost $4,000. Combo FI continues to be my shining star, making $4,000.
Nothing more to say, shit week.
Total loss for the week was $9,156.36
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $1,187,887.91
Profit/Loss: $(26,477.72)
POT: -2.23%
Bets Placed: 1,810
Won: 721
Lost: 1051
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 35
Winning %: 40.7%
Profit per day: $89,606.00 / 867 = $103.35
ATP – SP $191,684.00 $(8,349.95) -4.4%
week profit/loss: -1540.30
NBL Totals $28,476.00 $1,596.67 5.6%
week profit/loss: -1747
NBL Line $14,966.00 $(3,925.20) -26.2%
week profit/loss: 249
NBA Totals $27,774.00 $5,314.89 19.1%
week profit/loss: 3279.06
NBA H2H $18,396.00 $285.85 1.6%
week profit/loss: -1190.88
XX Draws $20,000.00 $(20.00) -0.1%
week profit/loss: -740
XX Draws Under $20,000.00 $(3,855.50) -19.3%
week profit/loss: -1583.50
XX Extended $48,000.00 $6,381.50 13.3%
week profit/loss: 1725
XX Extended Under $48,000.00 $3,127.00 6.5%
week profit/loss: -1396.50
FB Elite $54,819.00 $(11,790.97) -21.5%
week profit/loss: -6099
Skeeve $68,614.00 $(6,361.04) -9.3%
week profit/loss: -2140
Combo FI $49,500.00 $13,965.50 28.2%
week profit/loss: 3974
6-22 $20,625.00 $5,036.25 24.4%
week profit/loss: 570
7-21 $24,750.00 $4,175.25 16.9%
week profit/loss: 0
7-22 $11,685.00 $1,286.25 11.0%
week profit/loss: 375
8-21 $12,375.00 $1,879.13 15.2%
week profit/loss: 341.63
8-22 $8,638.00 $(653.87) -7.6%
week profit/loss: 716.63
E1-E7 $9,375.00 $(1,122.00) -12.0%
week profit/loss: -2089.50
E2-E6 $8,625.00 $(1,338.75) -15.5%
week profit/loss: -108.75
E2-E7 $4,500.00 $(2,295.00) -51.0%
week profit/loss: -1571.25
E3-E6 $5,250.00 $(457.50) -8.7%
week profit/loss: 641.25
E3-E7 $3,375.00 $(1,170.00) -34.7%
week profit/loss: -821.25
Oct 31st – Nov 6th +$13,839.11
A very short post this week as I am recovering from the festivities of yesterday (Melbourne Cup). A very pleasing Saturday saw the loss for year 3 down to just -$10,000, before a crappy Sunday brought that up to -$17,000. A fantastic week, but one that could have almost wiped the entire loss if only a few other results went my way. This week also saw the end of my Horse race betting and I will be writing a post in the coming days about why I won’t be following any more horse racing models for the foreseeable future.
Onto this weeks profit and we start with a profit of $3,200 in the ATP. Mostly due to Jerzy Janowicz. The model has a major weakness when it comes to new up and coming players on a great run. This happened earlier in the year with Raonic and now with Janowicz. I stopped betting against him in the final and that’s the one game he lost. But as I did with Raonic (after losing a shitload), I’ll not bet against him until the model has had a chance to catch up with this new powerhouse.
NBL made a small profit, but things could have been so much better. A $3,000 bet on the over in the NZ v Sydney match was going into overtime and the over was looking good. Then a NZ player hits a 3 on the buzzer to lose the bet by 0.5 points. Very painful. As mentioned above, this was the last week of me betting on horses and it ended with a $1,500 profit. The NBA season also started this week and the sportpunter model always performs really well in the first few weeks, and this week lived up to its reputation, adding $3,500 profit.
Onto the real profit for the week, and I’m HAPPY to see Soccer pulling its weight. XX draws continues its awesome run with $3,300 profit, Combo made $1,300 and I must say how impressed I am with the start to this system. FB Elite and Skeeve finally performed how I know they can, with a profit of $3,000 and $4,400 each. Analyst established lost $1,800 and I was lucky to miss most of the euro picks, which saved me $1,200 but that ended up $200 ahead.
Looking forward to hopefully another week like last week and to wipe this final bit of loss off and start moving into profitable territory.
Total profit for the week was $13,839.11
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $1,104,147.91
Profit/Loss: $(17,321.36)
POT: -1.57%
Bets Placed: 1,664
Won: 668
Lost: 959
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 35
Winning %: 41.1%
Profit per day: $98,762.36 / 860 = $114.83
ATP – SP $189,241.00 $(6,809.65) -3.6%
week profit/loss: -3264.65
NBL Totals $23,556.00 $3,343.67 14.2%
week profit/loss: 1551.30
NBL Line $12,140.00 $(4,174.20) -34.4%
week profit/loss: -136.5
NBA Totals $16,444.00 $2,035.83 12.4%
week profit/loss: 2035.83
NBA H2H $9,550.00 $1,476.73 15.5%
week profit/loss: 1476.73
New Horses $145,064.91 $(12,667.09) -8.7%
week profit/loss: 1509
XX Draws $17,500.00 $720.00 4.1%
week profit/loss: 1640
XX Draws Under $17,500.00 $(2,272.00) -13.0%
week profit/loss: 953.50
XX Extended $44,500.00 $4,656.50 10.5%
week profit/loss: -610
XX Extended Under $44,500.00 $4,523.50 10.2%
week profit/loss: 1380
FB Elite $46,819.00 $(5,691.97) -12.2%
week profit/loss: 3076
Skeeve $62,614.00 $(4,221.04) -6.7%
week profit/loss: 4414.40
Combo FI $40,500.00 $9,991.50 24.7%
week profit/loss: 1306
6-22 $18,750.00 $4,466.25 23.8%
week profit/loss: -1500
7-21 $23,625.00 $4,175.25 17.7%
week profit/loss: 881.25
7-22 $10,935.00 $911.25 8.3%
week profit/loss: -750
8-21 $11,625.00 $1,537.50 13.2%
week profit/loss: 326.25
8-22 $8,263.00 $(1,370.50) -16.6%
week profit/loss: -750
E1-E7 $5,625.00 $967.50 17.2%
week profit/loss: -390
E2-E6 $5,250.00 $(1,230.00) -23.4%
week profit/loss: -390
E2-E7 $2,250.00 $(723.75) -32.2%
week profit/loss: 358
E3-E6 $2,625.00 $(1,098.75) -41.9%
week profit/loss: 360
E3-E7 $1,875.00 $(348.75) -18.6%
week profit/loss: 360
Oct 24th – Oct 30th -$5,882.51
4 months into my 3rd year and $1,000,000 has been bet. My aim for about $4,000,000 bet over the year is going well as the next 4 months will have a lot more bets then the previous 4. I was hoping for a 4-5% ROI for the year so at this point I should be up around $40,000. I am only off by $71,160 (in the wrong direction). To say things have not turned out how I had envisioned is an understatement. This year it has felt like week after week of loses and as if I have no chance of making this work long term, I’m actually less sure of myself now then I was after a year in. My head says this is only variance and it can all change in a few weeks, but I also feel it could all go even more wrong. I just need to trust in the portfolio I have created and hope that things move back in the right direction.
Onto another losing week. ATP lost $2,500, NBL lost $3,600 and Horses lost $3,500. In the football XX draws lost $1,600, FB elite lost $150, Skeeve lost $800, TFA established systems lost $3,400. Lost Lost Lost, that’s all there seems to be lately. Happily there were a few winners.
The one system I had very little faith in has started extremely well, Combo FI made $6,000 this week and in what is hopefully a good sign, TFA euro picks made its first week of profits with $3,400 to cover the exact same loss on the established systems.
NBA starts this week and usually starts very well. The way things are going, this will not be the case this year. haha, so pessimistic at the moment, I think I need to get outside and go for a run. See you all next week.
Total loss for the week was $5,882.51
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $999,723.91
Profit/Loss: $(31,160.47)
POT: -3.12%
Bets Placed: 1,510
Won: 602
Lost: 877
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 29
Winning %: 41.5%
Profit per day: $84,923.25 / 853 = $99.55
ATP – SP $181,723.00 $(3,545.00) -2.0%
week profit/loss: -2468.02
NBL Totals $13,704.00 $1,792.37 13.1%
week profit/loss: -1575
NBL Line $8,650.00 $(4,037.70) -46.7%
week profit/loss: -2040
New Horses $143,469.91 $(14,176.09) -9.9%
week profit/loss: -3564
XX Draws $15,500.00 $(920.00) -5.9%
week profit/loss: 725
XX Draws Under $15,500.00 $(3,225.50) -20.8%
week profit/loss: -93.50
XX Extended $40,500.00 $5,266.50 13.0%
week profit/loss: -715
XX Extended Under $40,500.00 $3,143.50 7.8%
week profit/loss: -1505
FB Elite $34,819.00 $(8,767.97) -25.2%
week profit/loss: -159
Skeeve $57,014.00 $(8,635.44) -15.1%
week profit/loss: -779.24
Combo FI $25,000.00 $8,685.50 34.7%
week profit/loss: 5950
6-22 $17,250.00 $5,966.25 34.6%
week profit/loss: 405
7-21 $21,000.00 $3,294.00 15.7%
week profit/loss: -1215
7-22 $10,185.00 $1,661.25 16.3%
week profit/loss: -1545
8-21 $10,500.00 $1,211.25 11.5%
week profit/loss: -157.50
8-22 $7,513.00 $(620.50) -8.3%
week profit/loss: -862.50
E1-E7 $4,500.00 $1,357.50 30.2%
week profit/loss: 2557.50
E2-E6 $4,125.00 $(840.00) -20.4%
week profit/loss: 660
E2-E7 $1,875.00 $(1,083.75) -57.8%
week profit/loss: 41.25
E3-E6 $2,250.00 $(1,458.75) -64.8%
week profit/loss: 41.25
E3-E7 $1,500.00 $(708.75) -47.3%
week profit/loss: 416.25
Oct 17th – Oct 23rd -$1,123.51
An almost break even week and one that I hope has stopped the rot.
ATP performed well with almost $3,000 profit. NBL gave a small loss for the week. Horse racing continued its decline and ill be glad to see the end of it next week. XX Draws had an amazing week with over $6,000 profit. All the profit was wiped of by FB Elite who is having a terrible season and FB analysts Euro picks.
Just a short post today as I am quite busy placing mid week soccer bets. Hoping to wipe of at least $5,000 of this years loss this week and get it under the -$20k mark.
A quick note: I signed up for Half-Marathon Bet on the weekend, and the odds and limits were fantastic, for a whole 2 days. Now my max bets are around $20. It really is a joke how defensive all these books are, I even made a loss at Half-Marathon for the week.
Total loss for the week was $1,123.51
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $908,506.91
Profit/Loss: $(25,277.96)
POT: -2.78%
Bets Placed: 1,359
Won: 552
Lost: 779
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 26
Winning %: 41.5%
Profit per day: $90,805.76 / 846 = $107.33
ATP – SP $172,026.00 $(1,076.98) -0.6%
week profit/loss: 2820.94
NBL Totals $8,044.00 $3,367.37 41.9%
week profit/loss: 835
NBL Line $6,610.00 $(1,997.70) -30.2%
week profit/loss: -1148.70
Horse Racing $130,435.91 $(10,612.09) -8.1%
week profit/loss: -2271
XX Draws $14,500.00 $(1,645.00) -11.3%
week profit/loss: 790
XX Draws Under $14,500.00 $(3,132.00) -21.6%
week profit/loss: 970.50
XX Extended $38,000.00 $5,981.50 15.7%
week profit/loss: 4180
XX Extended Under $38,000.00 $4,648.50 12.2%
week profit/loss: 343.50
FB Elite $24,820.00 $(8,608.97) -34.7%
week profit/loss: -4000
Skeeve $51,352.00 $(7,856.20) -15.3%
week profit/loss: 0
Combo FI $12,000.00 $2,735.50 22.8%
week profit/loss: -550
6-22 $11,250.00 $5,561.25 49.4%
week profit/loss: 918.75
7-21 $16,500.00 $4,509.00 27.3%
week profit/loss: -562.5
7-22 $6,435.00 $3,206.25 49.8%
week profit/loss: 0
8-21 $7,875.00 $1,368.75 17.4%
week profit/loss: 0
8-22 $5,263.00 $242.00 4.6%
week profit/loss: 0
E1-E7 $2,250.00 $(1,200.00) -53.3%
week profit/loss: -450
E2-E6 $1,500.00 $(1,500.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -750
E2-E7 $1,125.00 $(1,125.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -750
E3-E6 $1,500.00 $(1,500.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -750
E3-E7 $1,125.00 $(1,125.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -750
Oct 10th – Oct 16th -$6,255.22
A third terrible week in a row. Once again I missed 2 bets and they won easily, that cost me $2,500 profit. Sometimes things just seem to always go bad and these last few weeks have felt that way. The only shining light this week was NBL, a nice profit made and the two bets missed were on that model. Horses and Soccer (Skeeve, FB Analyst) went crap.
Not much to say this week as most of my betting these days will be from soccer and this week was International week.
Next week I will be explaining all the reasons why I am stopping a service that has produced close to 100% ROC over the past year.
Total loss for the week was $6,255.22
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $853,265.91
Profit/Loss: $(24,154.45)
POT: -2.83%
Bets Placed: 1,266
Won: 517
Lost: 723
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 24
Winning %: 41.7%
Profit per day: $91,929.27 / 839 = $109.57
ATP – SP $155,874.00 $(3,897.92) -2.5%
week profit/loss: -624.43
NBL Totals $6,067.00 $2,532.37 41.7%
week profit/loss: 2970
NBL Line $2,730.00 $(849.00) -31.1%
week profit/loss: 558
New Horses $122,328.91 $(8,341.09) -6.8%
week profit/loss: -2702.09
XX Draws $13,500.00 $(2,435.00) -18.0%
week profit/loss: 0
XX Draws Under $13,500.00 $(4,102.50) -30.4%
week profit/loss: 0
XX Extended $34,000.00 $1,801.50 5.3%
week profit/loss: 0
XX Extended Under $34,000.00 $4,305.00 12.7%
week profit/loss: 0
FB Elite $18,820.00 $(4,608.97) -24.5%
week profit/loss: -1200
Skeeve $51,352.00 $(7,856.20) -15.3%
week profit/loss: -2221.20
Combo FI $10,000.00 $3,285.50 32.9%
week profit/loss: 0
6-22 $10,875.00 $4,642.50 42.7%
week profit/loss: -22.50
7-21 $14,250.00 $5,071.50 35.6%
week profit/loss: -750
7-22 $6,435.00 $3,206.25 49.8%
week profit/loss: -750
8-21 $7,875.00 $1,368.75 17.4%
week profit/loss: -750
8-22 $5,263.00 $242.00 4.6%
week profit/loss: -750
E1-E7 $750.00 $(750.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0
E2-E6 $750.00 $(750.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0
E2-E7 $375.00 $(375.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0
E3-E6 $750.00 $(750.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0
E3-E7 $375.00 $(375.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0
