Jan 8th – Jan 14th -$5,945.29

So just over 6 months in and $2 million has been bet. Just over $10,000 a day and nothing at all to show for it. After the Soccer this week, I’m actually relived to be where I am. The Australian Open started and the first day was a welcome relief. I’ve also had a few run ins with Keith who runs ClubGOWI. All that and more in the words below.

Lets start with the sport I love to hate. Soccer sucked massively this week. $17,000 loss for the week. Skeeve says in his emails that people sending him complaints doesn’t do anyone any good. Actually, I’m sure it helps the person sending the email a fair bit, I don’t send emails, but vent my frustration on this site. Skeeve has also said he no longer reads blogs that refer to him, so he doesn’t see these rants, and really, they are not for him, they are much more for me. Get ready for this weeks one… Over the past 2 years he has been terrible, whatever knowledge or edge he had has all but dissipated. He will continue to get a few clients over the coming years as his long term numbers still look good, but how good he was 5 years or more ago has absolutely no bearing on how he has gone in the past few years. For the amount he charges, there is no value in his service whatsoever. I’m not saying I won’t make a profit this season, but I do know that long term I won’t. I will finish off this season in the hopes of his so called fantastic second half of the years and then I will be done. A $7,200 loss for the week and $10,000 since he upped stakes again. Football Elite is pretty much in the same boat, living off long past results. I see a more simplistic approach here and in my mind it still has potential. If I can break even or better then I will really have to think about its future. Last season was pathetic and if things don’t turn around soon then this season could eclipse even that. A small $840 loss this week. Combo FI just trudges along with small profits each week, I’ll take 5.3% ROI over a season any day. $217 profit. I keep defending TFA, I’m not sure if it’s because I really want it to work and make some real profit, or because I like Graeme, whatever the case, if it doesn’t get some big wins in the next few months, I may also have to say goodbye to this service. An $8,000 loss this week. I sent an email to Keith who runs ClubGOWI asking where he gets his advised odds as I place bets the second they come out and rarely find the prices he says are available, I have also heard the same from 5 different people following the service. He was quite abrupt with me, saying I was accusing him of being dodgy. I was just asking to see if I could get these prices. I told him I was getting an average of 3-5% worse and on some games 10%, he said it was almost impossible to get 10% worse and then in the next line said he doesn’t track so wouldn’t know. I do track and do know. Again, I’m not saying that I won’t make a profit, I actually see potential in his service, but if anyone is thinking of subscribing then realise that the recorded odds are not achievable. A $1,150 loss and still yet to see any profit from this service. Well that’s my week of Soccer and Sunday morning things were looking terrible, with a loss of over $20,000 for the week. Luckily a few other sports came to the party.

All I can say once again is thank the lord for Jonno over at Sportpunter. The NBL model had a killer week, a massive $8,500 profit even with me having to spread my bets over many bookies and taking terrible odds. It’s a pain in the arse at times to place bets, but he is amazing at these niche sports. The bigger sports didn’t go so well. NFL lost $370, NBA lost $880 and NHL made $2,100 but is still well down for the year. His ATP model started the year terribly, but day 1 of the Australian Open produced $7,000 profit, I had another big winner but had bet at a match complete bookie and the other guy retired in the 3rd set, that one hurt. A $2,000 profit for the week in the Tennis and hoping for a nice big win for this tournament.

Nics picks lost another $425 and is over the $10,000 lost mark. Got very close this week though, hoping for a strong start from him as my patience is wearing thin. I have been advised of another golf tipster who has shown potential and instead of quitting completely, I might double down and follow both. That’s just how I roll, instead of making the smart decision, I just throw more money at the problem in the hopes of finding that elusive great tipster. It’s happened once and I’ll continue to hope lightning can strike twice until my bank is depleted.

So that’s it for another week, in the end a $6,000 loss was a relief. This week the aussie open will contribute an extra 5k, Skeeve, TFA, FB Elite and ClubGOWI will all perform exceptionally and contribute $15,000 and the other sports will add another $10,000 profit for one of those rare +$20,000 weeks. Yep, I am on my 4th cup of coffee and may be delusional.

Total loss for the week was $5,945.29

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,021,744.00
Profit/Loss: $(1,815.95)
POT: -0.09%
Bets Placed: 3,404
Won: 1241
Lost: 2023
Half Payout: 9
Refunded: 131
Winning %: 38.0%
Total profit per day: $185,706.14 / 1294 = $143.51
Total Turnover: $11,771,573.53
Total ROI: 1.58%

ATP – SP $206,307.00 $9,297.14 4.5%
week profit/loss: 2055.08

FB Elite $112,000.00 $(13,460.00) -12.0%
week profit/loss: -840

Skeeve $57,040.00 $(8,532.10) -15.0%
week profit/loss: -7200

Combo FI $68,590.00 $3,617.50 5.3%
week profit/loss: 217.50

TFA $396,293.00 $(28,031.00) -5.34%
week profit/loss: -7952.50

ClubGowi $71,540.00 $(1,695.50) -2.4%
week profit/loss: -1158.80

NFL Totals $104,169.00 $(707.94) -0.7%
week profit/loss: -368.70

NP Win $14,973.00 $(10,380.00) -69.3%
week profit/loss: -425

NHL Totals $207,255.00 $(10,621.03) -5.1%
week profit/loss: 2092.02

NBL Totals $69,117.00 $11,257.45 16.3%
week profit/loss: 5946.40

NBL Line $55,640.00 $17,996.05 32.3%
week profit/loss: 2574

NBA Totals $95,118.00 $(2,306.00) -2.4%
week profit/loss: -664.72

NBA H2H $54,170.00 $7,605.00 14.0%
week profit/loss: -220.57

13. January 2014 by admin
Categories: update | Leave a comment

Jan 1st – Jan 7th +$3,255.02

This post was so close to being one of those +$20k ones, and being a new year it would have been a fantastic start to 2014. Instead it’s just a basic winning week. Once again everything was looking great until the weekend, and then a bunch of losses took away all the hard earned profit for the week. Still in profit for the year now and hope to stay that way for the next 6 months.

The American sports had a shocker this week and January is usually when I stop following the NBA, but it has seemed a weird season, so I will be following it all the way through this year. NBA lost $4,600 this week and NHL lost $4,000. There were no NFL bets.

The Tennis started the week strongly, but gave most of those wins back at the end of the week. It made a profit of $650. NBL lost $1,600.

We finally had a turnaround for FB Elite, making a profit for the first time since I can remember. $2,000 added to the bank, but Skeeve was back to his old ways as soon as he raised his bets, a $2,400 loss there and this period is going to really make or break Skeeve, as he has been explaining off his poor form by pretty much guaranteeing a big winning second half of the season, I’m not so sure this is going to be the case. For his long term success and my bank, I hope I’m proved very wrong. Combo FI just chugs along with small wins each week, a further $765 to the bank and TFA had another fantastic week with $11,000 profit. I slept through my alarm and missed $3,000 profit on one bet. Hoping to wipe of that last $20,000 loss and make some profit for the year and continue again next season and hopefully make some real profit with this model. ClubGOWI made $1,500 but I am quite frustrated with the recorded prices, they are not achievable and I am getting 5-10% worse odds which is likely to make this service another one of those that looks good on paper, but in real life is not so good. For all the shit I give Skeeve and FB Elite, they are fair in their recorded odds, which makes me trust their services a lot more then these others.

Nics Picks golf started the season how it ended with another loss ($100), hoping for an early win this season to give me even a small bit of confidence.

The first week down and I’d take this profit every single week. Till next week.

Total profit for the week was $3,255.02

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $1,889,792.00
Profit/Loss: $4,129.34
POT: 0.22%
Bets Placed: 3,215
Won: 1172
Lost: 1921
Half Payout: 5
Refunded: 117
Winning %: 37.9%
Total profit per day: $191,651.43/ 1287 = $148.91
Total Turnover: $11,639,621.53
Total ROI: 1.65%

ATP – SP $169,419.00 $7,242.06 4.3%
week profit/loss: 656.75

FB Elite $101,000.00 $(12,620.00) -12.5%
week profit/loss: 2065

Skeeve $49,840.00 $(1,332.10) -2.7%
week profit/loss: -2400

Combo FI $64,090.00 $3,400.00 5.3%
week profit/loss: 765

TFA $375,543.00 $(20,078.50) -5.34%
week profit/loss: 10,959.50

ClubGowi $58,640.00 $(536.70) -0.9%
week profit/loss: 1475.80

NFL Totals $102,064.00 $(339.24) -0.3%
week profit/loss: 0

NP Win $14,548.00 $(9,955.00) -68.4%
week profit/loss: -100

NHL Totals $188,574.00 $(12,713.05) -6.7%
week profit/loss: -3963.56

NBL Totals $61,513.00 $5,311.05 8.6%
week profit/loss: 1285

NBL Line $52,780.00 $15,422.05 29.2%
week profit/loss: -2865

NBA Totals $88,277.00 $(1,641.28) -1.9%
week profit/loss: -4106.47

NBA H2H $50,972.00 $7,825.57 15.4%
week profit/loss: -514

06. January 2014 by admin
Categories: update | 16 comments

Please explain Pinnacle take 2

In late October I asked why Pinnacle say on their website that everyone gets the same high limits when that was clearly not true. I provided evidence but Pinnacle decided not to reply. You can find that article here.

Well I am back again with a further complaint and something I haven’t seen another book ever do before and a practice that I feel is quite unethical. Once again let me preface this by saying that Pinnacle are the best book out there and I highly recommend them. I guess I am noticing these things because I use them so much and am sure other bookmakers are also doing these sort of things.

So for the past few weeks I have noticed when placing a multi at Pinnacle the odds are always lower then you can get them straight up.

The image is of both the normal market and the parlay market. The parlay market looks different as it goes to the old style. I guess they have not incorporated it into the new asian style. As you can see (you might need to click the image to enlarge it) the vast majority of the odds are well below those available in the singles market.

As an example let’s say I wanted a multi of Macclesfield Town, Draw in Rochdale & Leeds match, and Bolton wanderers. Using the prices from the single bets I would have odds of $32.18, but if I was to place the bet for real my odds would be $31.20. That’s quite a large discrepancy.

Click the image for a larger view

Click the image for a larger view

I hope there is a simple explanation for this? I assumed bookmakers loved people who take multis as it pushes the odds even further into their favor.

How do you feel about this? Is it something you have noticed? Should Pinnacles parlay prices be the same as their normal prices or is it fine for them to do this?

I will contact Pinnacle and ask for a response. This post will be updated if they reply.

04. January 2014 by admin
Categories: update | 2 comments

2013 Annual Review

Before I even write this post I know it is going to come across as boastful. I managed to do some amazing things this year and realise I lead a very blessed life. I understand that not everyone is in the same position as me and can afford to travel the world and pretty much do whatever I want as long as there is an internet connection nearby. I’m still nowhere near where I want to be when it comes to my gambling returns, and the second half of the year has been a real shocker, but if I keep working away at it and refining my portfolio then I hope I can replicate years like this one.

I’ll do a quick recap of the profit this year and then move onto the things I did. If you didn’t know, I started this journey 3 and a half years ago on July 1st, so each year I restart my records at that time. You will notice on the blog that I am break-even for the year, that total is for the past 6 months. The totals I am about to present are for the calendar year.

So from Jan 1st 2013 to Dec 31st 2013 I bet a total of $4,051,240 and made a profit of $113,171.84 at a ROI of 2.79%. It is below in pretty graph form.
2013pl

Breaking this down into each sport, we can see where most of the profit came from
AFL $567,927 $74,841.51 13.18%
Tennis $489,437 $40,334.50 8.24%
Soccer $1,581,491 -$6,964.51 -0.44%
Basketball (NBA & NBL) $377,392 $32,218.22 8.54%
Baseball $660,319 -$6,854.16 -1.03%
NRL $77,888 -$144.78 -0.18%
Golf $17,023.00 $(10,186.00) -59.8%
NFL $105,904.00 $666.96 0.6%
NHL $173,859.00 $(10,739.90) -6.2%

The only real returns of note are the AFL, Tennis and Basketball models. All these are Sportpunter models. Soccer is a mix of 5-6 Tipsters and sadly none of them have impressed me yet. The Baseball, NFL and NHL are also Sportpunter models and I will be dropping some of these in 2014. Golf comes from Niks picks and has been pathetic. Just following Sportpunter models for the year would have netted me $130,466 profit and a hell of a lot less heartache, but I don’t want to rely on just one superstar. I’m glad Jonno at Sportpunter is keeping me afloat while I get to test out all these other services in the hope of finding just one or two who can return a consistent profit. The hope each year is that they just replicate their past results, but this hasn’t been the case. If such a year was to happen, I would be looking at close to $500,000 profit in a single year. I’ll continue to wish for that.

So that’s pretty much 2013 in betting terms. If you told me I would make over $100,000 every year then I would gladly take it, so I am pretty happy with the results. It’s just a shame that all the profit was made in the first 3 months and then I spent the next 9 months dealing with wild swings. I’m sure my year would have been a lot less stressful if the graph was a slow steady climb to the same figure, but it is something I have come to accept.

Now onto why I do this.

My dream, and I’m sure a lot of you would think the same, is to be able to travel the world for 6-9 months a year, meet new people, see amazing sites and learn all about new cultures and be an eternal student. I felt that betting for a living was a perfect match. I needed something that could be done while travelling.. CHECK, something that could return enough to pay for everything… CHECK (mostly) and most of all, something that I enjoyed… CHECK (most of the time).

When I’m home in Australia, my girlfriend and I would spend about $60,000 a year. I’m fairly frugal and don’t really spend money on stuff (although I love my tech). This covers bills, food, entertainment and a few smaller trips each year. It’s a very comfortable life but where I live can get fairly boring for someone my age, especially in winter. On the 5 month trip we took in 2013 we spent an average of $10,000 a month. We stayed in Airbnb places and cheap hotels the entire time, and to be honest I have no idea how we managed to spend so much. The travel was probably the most expensive aspect and I’m sure if I was to do it longer term, we would choose to stay in places for months at a time like we did in Milan. Not only was it much cheaper, but you actually feel at home after a month and then really enjoy the place in the second month. I would say $6 – 8,000 would be a reasonable amount to budget per month. So to travel 9 months of the year I would need $72,000 and about $15,000 for the 3 months back home. That’s a total of $87,000 a year to lead what for me is a dream life. There’s always random expenses and emergencies so we can round that up to $100,000.

I could go on forever about financial stuff, as I love to read financial blogs and play with numbers, but I won’t bore you any further. I’ll end the financial stuff with the dream goal. That is to have $2.5 million in investments paying around 8%. This would allow me to take out 4% a year which is $100,000 and the money should theoretically never run out. All gambling profits go towards this goal.

Now onto all the fun stuff I got to do this year.

Places I lived in or visited:
Dubai, Milan, Lake Como, Venice, Verona, Cinque Terra, Switzerland, Almafi Coast, Naples, Pompei, Rome, London, New York, Miami, Houston, Austin, Dallas, Vegas, Vancouver, LA, Honolulu, American Samoa, Fiji, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Sydney.

People I saw in concert:
Andrea Bocelli, placido domingo, many other of the best opera singers, Third eye blind, Paul McCartney, Maroon 5, Tim McGraw, Jared Leto, Bruno Mars, Miley Cyrus, Elton John, Drake, Justin Timberlake, Kesha, Phoenix, Joan Jett, Miquel, and a heap of others.

Sport:
San Siro tour, Wimbledon line, Arsenal v Napoli and Galatasaray v Porto, Mets game in New York, Dallas Cowboys game.

These are just a sample of the highlights, I ate some amazing food, met some spectacular people and saw and learnt so much. It really has been an amazing year and am truly grateful to lead the life I do. I told you it would sound like I was boasting.

I hope your year was as enjoyable as mine and I hope your 2014 is even better. Let me know your 2014 goals and what you got up to in 2013.

My view of the Cowboys game

My view of the Cowboys game

My other nosebleed section view

My other nosebleed section view

Arsenal v Napoli

Arsenal v Napoli

My home in Miami for a week

My home in Miami for a week

Landing in Vegas

Landing in Vegas

Me at the San Siro

Me at the San Siro

03. January 2014 by admin
Categories: update | 1 comment

Dec 25th – Dec 31st +$5,325.89

Talk about timing. With just 12 hours before the new year, my total P/L for year 4 moves into profitable territory. I only dreamed of this moment of parity a few months ago. I’m quite pleased to be back where I started 6 months ago, the way Soccer has raped me (-$47,000) shows that my diversified portfolio can actually counteract any lean spell. When all systems are firing, the sky’s the limit. There are 3 final NBL games before the new year starts and these bets will be huge, so on New years day I might be back in negative territory, but for all intents and purposes let’s call it even. I’ll be attending one of those games and I’m sure there will be a large over bet on the game, so will be cheering every basket that falls. If Soccer can turn around in the second half of the season then I might just make some money in my 4th year.

My prior post was talking about how awesome the Sportpunter ATP model is, well it started with a win and then 4 losses. Still early days and a $1750 loss for it’s first week. It feels good to have the Tennis back and I might make an appearance at the Aussie open this year. The other current Sportpunter model (NBL) made $2,000 for the week.

Last week I said it was the final week of NFL, but I was wrong, that was this week (regular season) and the American sports once again did well. NFL made $2,000, NHL continued it’s semi comeback with $3,800 profit and NBA added to its fine season with a further $2,100 profit.

FB Elite continues its horrendous run losing another $3,000 this week. Not even getting close to a win. Will need a miracle run for anyone to be signing up again for the service next season. Combo Football Investor made $500, but Clubgowi and TFA lost $200 each.

So that ends 2013 for me. I will try and post a yearly review in the coming days once I’m recovered from what is sure to be a heavy night of drinking. Hope you all have a fantastic New year.

Total profit for the week was $5,325.89

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $1,778,857.00
Profit/Loss: $874.32
POT: 0.05%
Bets Placed: 3,017
Won: 1101
Lost: 1830
Half Payout: 3
Refunded: 83
Winning %: 37.6%
Total profit per day: $188,396.41 / 1280 = $147.18
Total Turnover: $11,528,686.53
Total ROI: 1.63%

ATP – SP $148,402.00 $6,585.31 4.4%
week profit/loss: -1750.56

FB Elite $98,000.00 $(14,685.00) -15.0%
week profit/loss: -3000

Skeeve $47,440.00 $1,067.90 2.3%
week profit/loss: 0

Combo FI $59,590.00 $2,635.00 4.4%
week profit/loss: 510

TFA $359,543.00 $(31,035.00) -8.48%
week profit/loss: -183.50

ClubGowi $43,240.00 $(2,012.50) -4.7%
week profit/loss: -208.50

NFL Totals $102,064.00 $(339.24) -0.3%
week profit/loss: 2014.67

NP Win $14,448.00 $(9,855.00) -68.2%
week profit/loss: 0

NHL Totals $166,940.00 $(8,749.49) -5.2%
week profit/loss: 3813.50

NBL Totals $58,713.00 $4,026.05 6.9%
week profit/loss: 1474.30

NBL Line $41,800.00 $18,287.05 43.7%
week profit/loss: 556.38

NBA Totals $80,867.00 $2,465.19 3.0%
week profit/loss: 2703.57

NBA H2H $48,278.00 $8,339.57 17.3%
week profit/loss: -603.97

30. December 2013 by admin
Categories: update | Leave a comment

Sportpunter Tennis Model 2014

Today marks the first game of the new Tennis season and I have $1,150 on Milos Raonic to beat Bernard Tomic. I have been following the Sportpunter Tennis model for many years. It was what got me into betting in the first place and to this day I remember arriving in Bristol in 2007, checking into my hotel and placing a big bet on Volandri to beat Federer at odds of $21, which ended up paying for my entire trip. In 2010 I decided to try and make a living from betting and this model has been one of the few that have been with me from the start.

The bank has risen over the years from $50,000 to $75,000 and this year it will be a $100,000 bank and the Kelly has remained the same at 1/25th. The goal is a profit of $50,000.

Now to be honest, I hate talking about the profitable models I follow, as readers then go and join and with any service, the more people following, the more competition there is and the worse prices I achieve, in saying that, I have never really had much trouble getting on with these bets and it really is the best Tennis model I have come across. The subscription is one of the most expensive out there at $2,497 for the year, which is just over $200 a month. But even with a small bank, you should be able to pay for that and have a healthy profit by seasons end. To see all the details head over to the Sportpunter Tennis page.

tennis results

Over the past 3 and a half years I have placed 3,420 bets and the total profit stands at $67,521. The first years return does not do it justice as the bank was low and the Kelly was high, but you can see how consistently good the returns have been. 2012 was a pretty lean year, but every other year has been great.

If your bank is big enough and you want it to grow some more in 2014 then this model is for you. It is one that will be in my portfolio for many years to come.

27. December 2013 by admin
Categories: Review | 2 comments

Dec 18th – Dec 24th +$22,618.54

Merry Fucken Christmas to me. A fantastic week and what a Christmas eve present. Things could have been perfect as I was sitting on a $500 loss for the season with a $3,000 NFL bet. It sadly went over to keep me in Negative territory, but my hopes of breaking even by the new year are still alive and kicking now. I just love these weeks and hope to see a lot more of them in 2014. It was Jan 25th 2013 when I started a climb that produced $135,000 profit in just over 90 days. I hope we have started that same run but just a month earlier this year. I guess the girlfriend is the happiest with these results, as her present has been upgraded from a lump of coal to a lump of some sparkly crap that women like.

Football Elite was the only negative this week, not as shit as last week, but pretty poor to be honest. A few more similar weeks and it will be a not so fond farewell to this service in 2014. $2,780 lost this week. In news I didn’t expect to be typing anytime this season, but we have two soccer models in profit. Skeeve and Football Investor (Combo) both made a smashing $4,000 profit this weekend and are hopefully on their way to more profits. Even better this week was TFA, with a whopping $8,600 return. We had some last minute goals go against us again, but Accrington scoring in the 94th and 95th minute for a big win was very special. ClubGowi picks up its first profitable week, adding $1,200 to the pot.

NFL made $1,900 in the last week of regular season play. NHL also produced a nice $2,750 profit and NBA added $2,700. I just love when the American sports have a good week.

With a fair bit of sport to come before the new year, there will be many chances to get into positive territory. It’s sad that I will be over the moon to break even, but that’s the sort of year I have had. Gotto keep believing that lightning can strike twice and these models go on the run of their lives once again.

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year

Total profit for the week was $22,618.54

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $1,696,643.00
Profit/Loss: $(4,451.57)
POT: -0.26%
Bets Placed: 2,866
Won: 1038
Lost: 1750
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 76
Winning %: 37.2%
Total profit per day: $183,070.52 / 1273 = $143.81
Total Turnover: $11,446,472.53
Total ROI: 1.60%

FB Elite $95,000.00 $(11,685.00) -12.3%
week profit/loss: -2780

Skeeve $47,440.00 $1,067.90 2.3%
week profit/loss: 4062

Combo FI $53,090.00 $2,125.00 4.0%
week profit/loss: 4035

TFA $333,793.00 $(30,851.50) -8.03%
week profit/loss: 8647.50

ClubGowi $32,940.00 $(1,804.00) -5.5%
week profit/loss: 1262

NFL Totals $96,100.00 $(2,353.91) -2.4%
week profit/loss: 1874.70

NP Win $14,448.00 $(9,855.00) -68.2%
week profit/loss: 0

NHL Totals $155,671.00 $(12,562.99) -8.1%
week profit/loss: 2751.55

NBL Totals $53,581.00 $2,551.75 4.8%
week profit/loss: 0

NBL Line $41,238.00 $17,730.67 43.0%
week profit/loss: 0

NBA Totals $74,846.00 $(238.38) -0.3%
week profit/loss: 1023.45

NBA H2H $45,617.00 $8,943.54 19.6%
week profit/loss: 1742.34

23. December 2013 by admin
Categories: update | Leave a comment

Dec 11th – Dec 17th -$14,757.67

Well it was only a matter of time before this happened again. A shit of a week and back out to an uncomfortable level of loss. The main culprit was the woeful Football Elite. But a few other sports added to the carnage. I’m pretty much over the swings now, they have happened so often and I just assume I am going to keep losing, so I get pissed off for a day or two and then just reset to my normal pessimistic attitude. The only control I have is whether I stop following a model, as none of them have reached their betting banks yet, I just have to keep plugging away and keep dreaming of that elusive turnaround.

May as well start with the Soccer and with what is probably the worst week ever for Football Elite. 9 losses and 1 push ($9,000 loss). It looks like Matt has received some abuse for the results this week if his email is anything to go off. I’m really pissed at myself. I was going to stop following at the end of last season as the signs were there that any edge might have been gone, but decided to go another season and halved my stakes. I really should have just stopped. But as always, the bank isn’t dead yet and things could easily turn around. Will wait out the second half of the season (hopefully) and more then likely say bye to it at the end of the year. It would take a +20 point return to sway me to stay and that is highly unlikely. The same thinking is applied to Skeeve. Only the one bet for a $1,200 loss this week. Skeeve isn’t far off a profit this year and his second half of the season has always been great, but unless there is close to a $20,000 profit by the end of the season, it will be scrapped. For the price and the performance over the last few years, it is not worth it. Combo FI produced the only Soccer profit of the week, a whopping $600. TFA was close to profit, but a 10 man Stevenage lost their lead in the 97th minute and lost me $7,000 profit. TFA ended the week $1,750 down. I have stopped Insider Betting, but have continued with ClubGOWI, and it has had a shit start, another $2,000 lost this week. Always seems the case that I jump in after a good run.

Talking about jumping in after a good run, Nics Picks Golf has been horrendous since I joined, with just the one win and now over $10,000 lost. I’m really ready to let this one go as I have not seen anything of value in this service. Can’t complain as it’s a free service and we all know how well they have done for me in the past. Stupid me really. I broke my own rules and am paying for it.

American sports were hit and miss this week. NHL Totals has lost close to $10,000 over the last 2 weeks, $3,900 of that this week. NFL made $560 profit and NBA added $2,600. NBL broke about even for the week.

Not looking like a merry Christmas for my P/L graph. Will have to hope for that same Christmas miracle that happened last year, but the likelihood is very slim. I’m sure I said the same thing last year, but I’m positive you can guess what I’ll be wishing for this Christmas.

Total loss for the week was $14,757.67

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $1,614,801.00
Profit/Loss: $(27,070.11)
POT: -1.68%
Bets Placed: 2,709
Won: 965
Lost: 1675
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 67
Winning %: 36.6%
Total profit per day: $160,451.98 / 1266 = $126.73
Total Turnover: $11,364,630.53
Total ROI: 1.41%

FB Elite $86,000.00 $(8,905.00) -10.4%
week profit/loss: -9000

Skeeve $44,440.00 $(2,994.10) -6.7%
week profit/loss: -1200

Combo FI $45,090.00 $(1,910.00) -4.2%
week profit/loss: 595

TFA $318,193.00 $(39,499.00) -12.22%
week profit/loss: -1746

Insider Betting $5,500.00 $(2,213.50) -40.2%
week profit/loss: 0

ClubGowi $21,840.00 $(3,066.00) -14.0%
week profit/loss: -2040

NFL Totals $85,894.00 $(4,228.61) -4.9%
week profit/loss: 560.27

NP Win $14,448.00 $(9,855.00) -68.2%
week profit/loss: -825

NHL Totals $138,177.00 $(15,314.54) -11.1%
week profit/loss: -3,908.99

NBL Totals $53,581.00 $2,551.75 4.8%
week profit/loss: -3260

NBL Line $41,238.00 $17,730.67 43.0%
week profit/loss: 3422.20

NBA Totals $72,044.00 $(1,261.83) -1.8%
week profit/loss: 2014.51

NBA H2H $40,977.00 $7,201.20 17.6%
week profit/loss: 630.34

16. December 2013 by admin
Categories: update | 3 comments

Matchbook shooting themselves in the foot.

I’ve recently started using Matchbook as they are offering 0% commission on their Soccer markets till April 1st. The odds are pretty decent and they offer $AUD accounts. I’ve heard others complain about the site layout, but I like it. I rarely use it though, instead opting for the app, which needs a bit of work, but does an ok job.

If your betting any of the Soccer models I bet then you should be signed up here. Last week I placed 60% of my bets here, when the majority are usually placed at Pinnacle. There is my marketing for Matchbook done. There is a banner below you can click to signup and I’ll make about 5 cent from that.

Now the reason they are idiots. As you can see in the image below, their events dropdown on the left hand side has no events in it. So you can’t actually do anything apart from bet on the events you see on the homepage. The events tab takes at least 5minutes and longer for me before it is populated. No one is going to wait around for this. I have emailed Matchbook and hope they fix it soon. The app still works fine.

Companies do this all the time, they offer something which will be a big draw (0% commission) and then stuff it up completely by not making sure the site is 100% ready to go. New users won’t stick around more then 10 seconds let alone 5 minutes. Matchbook need to have this fixed in minutes, not the hours or days it will take. By the time you read this it should be fixed and even though they have made a simple error, that shouldn’t stop you from joining and getting the best odds possible. Hopefully betfair starts to see a decline in their markets and steps up their game instead of coasting on their first to market advantage.
Matchbook morons

13. December 2013 by admin
Categories: news | Leave a comment

November 2013 Review +$41,042.30

November welcomed me home after 5 months on the road. Luckily for me it was a very nice welcome home, with over $41,000 in profit. Things were looking bleak at the end of October and another bad month would have caused me to rethink if all this was worth it. Luckily I did not need to have that conversation with myself… yet.

A much higher turnover this month with $409,301.00 bet for a profit of $41,042.30. A very impressive 10.03% ROI.

There were only two under performers in November. The terrible Nics picks Golf, which went 0 from 50 for a $3,175 loss. The other poor service was NHL Totals, losing $7,357 at -9.4%.

The tennis season ended in November and had an ok finish. Looking forward to the 2014 season starting in a few weeks. Basketball had the second highest turnover after Soccer and produced 8% ROI, adding $11,200 profit. This was shared pretty evenly between NBA and NBL. The NFL also had a stellar month, making up a lot of it’s past losses with $11,400 profit at a staggering 48.4% ROI. Our good friend Soccer finally had a winning month with $28,000 profit at 17.6%. This shows what is possible when Soccer is performing how I thought it would.

The individual models that need to be singled out for praise this month are many. First we have Skeeve, with a 139% ROI for the month. I’m now even sure if he lost a bet. A fantastic $9,200 profit. TFA also came to the party with $16,000 profit at 18.32%. The NBL line bets and the NBA Totals each produced a return of over 19% and lastly the NFL model returned 48.4%.

A really satisfying month and one I really needed. Hoping for a few back to back months like this to move into profit and start 2014 with a bang.

Combined Totals
Tennis $5,374.00 $999.70 18.6%
Soccer $158,912.00 $27,911.70 17.6%
Basketball $139,817.00 $11,229.16 8.0%
Golf $3,175.00 $(3,175.00) -100.0%
NFL $23,647.00 $11,434.42 48.4%
NHL $78,376.00 $(7,357.68) -9.4%

Individual Models
ATP – SP $5,374.00 $999.70 18.6%
FB Elite $42,000.00 $2,205.00 5.3%
Skeeve $6,640.00 $9,277.70 139.7%
Combo FI $20,000.00 $740.00 3.7%
6-22 $3,500.00 $1,688.50 48.2%
7-21 $7,250.00 $(346.50) -4.8%
7-22 $2,250.00 $(344.00) -15.3%
8-21 $3,250.00 $405.00 12.5%
8-22 $1,750.00 $186.00 10.6%
31-42 $16,022.00 $(94.50) -0.6%
33-41 $4,250.00 $160.00 3.8%
33-42 $3,750.00 $325.00 8.7%
TOX $12,500.00 $3,778.50 30.2%
STOY $12,250.00 $3,971.00 32.4%
STOZ $15,250.00 $3,371.00 22.1%
D3-D6 $2,750.00 $1,452.50 52.8%
D3-D7 $2,000.00 $1,350.00 67.5%
NP Win $3,175.00 $(3,175.00) -100.0%
NBL Totals $27,428.00 $68.92 0.3%
NBL Line $25,150.00 $4,924.74 19.6%
NBA Totals $57,876.00 $529.48 0.9%
NBA H2H $29,363.00 $5,706.02 19.4%
NFL Totals $23,647.00 $11,434.42 48.4%
NHL Totals $78,376.00 $(7,357.68) -9.4%
Insider Betting $3,500.00 $(213.50) -6.1%

10. December 2013 by admin
Categories: Monthly | 6 comments

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