Apr 9th – Apr 15th +$17,962.80
Before I begin this weeks post, I would ask a small favor (sorry just watched game of thrones and am now talking like them). If sir would be so kind (and I know it’s a sir because apparently no girls are into betting), can you take a moment (about 2 minutes) to answer a few questions to help me figure out what the most pressing issues you have are and what should go into my ebook. Just follow this link. Thanks in advance.
Now after you read that and said hell no, figure it out yourself… onto this weeks results. Two massive milestones reached. Last week I touched $100k for about 30 minutes, this week I am well into the $100’s. Sitting very pretty at the moment with a small buffer, even though it will hurt me psychologically, I already know that there is a high likelihood I will dip below that mark at some point before the season ends. The second milestone is surpassing the $300,000 profit mark in total. I am now 30% of the way to the ultimate goal of $1,000,000 from this little hobby.
I just wanted to do a bit of maintenance before I move onto the results. As this site has gotten more popular I have started to receive many emails from readers asking many questions, while I am more then happy to answer them, can you please do a little bit of research first. Everything you need to know is on this blog, there is a search bar at the top right, ask it a question before asking me. If you show me you have at least tried to find the answer to a question I will spend some time to answer it, but if you just ask me to rewrite things I have already said on the blog, I will point you back to the website. I have spent more time replying to emails this week then actually placing bets.
Also this week I was asked by a few twitter followers to look into what they felt was a very dodgy tipster, I have thus donned my detectives cap this week and am hard at work sussing this guy out. Full report sometime this week. It will be a teaser of what will eventually go into the book, a few things to look out for when deciding if a tipster is worth your hard earned cash.
Alright, enough blabbering. Where did all that profit come from this week? The simple answer is AFL. A fantastic week with all big bets getting up. For once there were no heart attack games. An almost $20,000 profit. I’m hoping this is the start of the AFL run. ATP broke even, it has been a steady earner for me over the years, but just has not got going this year, still plenty of time to make some profit though. The Rugby had 1 bet and 1 loss of $700. The NRL is showing a bias against Parramatta which has costs me dearly the last few weeks, a further $1,800 lost there. Like NBA, I should have finished NHL betting a few weeks earlier as the end of season is usually poor, $1,000 poorer for not acting sooner. Finally, the NBL season came to an end with a break even result, congrats to Perth who dominated in the final game and an even bigger congrats to Sportpunter on a year that I doubt will ever be beat. Really worried for next season as the bookies made it hard to place a bet over $100 near the end of the season.
Onto the other Tipsters and ClubGOWI released some figures this week even though he doesn’t wish to be known for his results. The Sporting Investor had a few words to say about why he is leaving the service.
“I have no doubt that he has a decent edge. If you’re going to profit from the service to achieve the stated returns you need to be getting bets on within a few minutes of the e-mail arriving in your inbox. Even then I haven’t been able to get all the advertised prices – some have already gone within 30 seconds of reading the advice. Alternatively you could use the information to find bets on side markets that aren’t immediately impacted by the recommendations. With my full time job and family commitments I won’t be in a position to profit from Club Gowi so unless I retire any time soon (unlikely) I will say farewell to Keith.”
I agree with many of those comments. To achieve a profit from the service you need to be at your computer the exact moment the emails are sent, you need to be quick to get near the odds and there is value in using other markets. Now we all know how much I dislike Tipsters quoting unachievable odds, so no point going over old ground. I’ll just show you the stated numbers and my own and let you know that I have not missed a bet and am on within seconds of emails being delivered.
Current Year: ClubGOWI official results
Total bets: 399
Current year: Daily25 results
Total bet: 399
As we can see, a almost 50% difference in results and that equates to 6% worse odds achieved and therefore the same difference in ROI. While I am sure 1 or 2 members will be getting the odds quoted as they are available at the time of release, the vast majority are getting at least 5-6% worse and maybe more. The beauty is that his ROI is so good that even with this large discrepancy the profits are there to be made. I just wish he made it clear to subscribers that the odds are not achievable, as this is the only problem I have with the service. It is a fantastic service which I hope to be a part of for a long time. I know of a number of subscribers who told me they were quitting and I told them long term they would regret that, but many people seem to not stick out bad or even break even runs. This week GOWI made $2,400 thanks to Bubba Watson.
EDIT: It has been brought to my attention that these results would have also included some Antepost bets on the NFL which I would not have placed as I was not a member at the time. I then went back and looked at my odds achieved and was 3.8% worse, not the 6% worse I stated.
Soccer now, and Football Elite lost a further $1,900 this week. After a great few weeks last month, this month has reverted to the norm. Skeeve lost $3,000 but I must commend his email this week as there were no excuses. The Skeeve bet was opposed to a big TFA bet on Braintree and I had to make a hard decision on whether to place both bets, to this day I have never made the right decision, but decided to treat each model independently, and placed the bet, TFA won that bet and it was a crazy game. TFA made $3,100 thanks largely to that one winning bet. Combo football Investor added $1,600 and I’m hoping my star soccer tipster can end the season in a blaze of glory.
Golf lost $500, whats new.
That was a long post, asleep yet? If not and you didn’t do the survey yet then go do it for gods sake. Include your email and I might even send you free chapters as I write them. follow this link.
Total profit for the week was $17,962.80
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $3,377,648.84
Bets Placed: 5,725
Half Payout: 31
Winning %: 38.3%
Total profit per day: $300,313.44 / 1385 = $216.83
Total Turnover: $13,127,478.37
Total ROI: 2.29%
ATP – SP $384,726.00 $7,881.72 2.0%
week profit/loss: 97.48
AFL H2H – SP $58,133.00 $14,049.10 24.2%
week profit/loss: 4522.50
AFL Line – SP $343,789.00 $58,560.37 17.0%
week profit/loss: 15259.76
Rugby SP $27,593.00 $14,922.12 54.1%
week profit/loss: -700
NRL SP $22,083.00 $6,734.41 30.5%
week profit/loss: -1835.24
FB Elite $245,000.00 $(2,951.00) -1.2%
week profit/loss: -1940
Skeeve $126,748.00 $1,633.80 1.3%
week profit/loss: -3000
Combo FI $134,715.00 $10,493.88 7.8%
week profit/loss: 1596.50
TFA $616,376.00 $(51,958.08) -8.17%
week profit/loss: 3115
ClubGowi $256,823.00 $12,445.74 4.8%
week profit/loss: 2401.80
NP Win $23,810.84 $(1,412.34) -5.9%
week profit/loss: -500
NHL Totals $279,462.00 $6,043.94 2.2%
week profit/loss: -1055
NBL Totals $102,837.00 $30,179.14 29.3%
week profit/loss: 1000
NBL Line $106,187.00 $22,074.83 20.8%
week profit/loss: -1000
I am pretty sure that Keith’s results for this year include the “ante-post” bets on for example NFL. Which made a big profit apparently. So perhaps not directly comparable to those who joined around the start of the new year (as I did myself).
I think some of those Gowi comments are harsh. Yes the prices plummet on release but just about all advice is given way in advance so plenty of time to place at a later time. Like everyone else I would prefer sign in at a set time with every tipster and get the prices advertised but that just isn’t realistic with most services, well the good ones anyway. By making only a small amount of additional effort (checking prices between 1-3 additional times before kick off or in play) Gowi’s results can be pretty much matched I have found personally.
As an example Steve you have said previously your hands are tied because of the time difference yet I see you on Twitter or here or elsewhere at all sorts of times. Is it the time difference or just breaking the way you like to do things…….? That’s not said in a confrontational sense but more of a suggestion / question as I have personally found it useful to re examine ones habits and practices from time to time…. Perhaps its just me who is a stubborn habitual male… 😉
I used to place all bets on all services at release but after reading posts like the above in a few places I changed that and started putting more effort in across the board and the results are worth it I have found. I make this effort for no other reason than it means more returns for me and I am trying to make this betting game a large part of family income
Anyway just playing devils advocate and for anyone who thinks it is a load of old nonsense then feel free to duly ignore it ! 🙂
Nice blog… I am reading it frequently. Congratulation for the 100k, that it’s impressive. I filled in the survey. Perhaps you can add my blog to your links: http://brucelaytrading.blogspot.ch/
It’s not just a P+L blog, I talk about my days as a trader.
Added, good luck with the blog
You may be right as there is a small difference in the total bet. I went back and looked and I was only getting 3.8% worse odds over that time frame, so the Antepost bets did have a hefty profit. I will edit my remarks
We always need someone to let us know when we should take a step back and look at things again. So I thank you for that.
I spent a month testing this concept of waiting until game time and also checking every few hours. For me after comparing everything, it was not worth the time. My experiment was simple, I placed the bets as I usually would straight away, then compared them to prices 3 hours later and prices just before kickoff. Over the month it was 0.8% better to place straight away. Add in the benefits of less time and that makes it an easy solution for me.
I usually go to bed at 1am Australian time. Games start between 4-8am my time.
I’m all up for change if it is going to produce better results, but after testing for a month the conclusion was that the way I was doing it was the optimal way.
Bryn, this sort of commitment is what is (if it hasn’t already) going to make you one of the few profitable gamblers. Thinking outside of the box and doing everything you can to achieve the best odds is so important.
The ClubGOWI service is great, it just isn’t for everyone.
Thanks for the comment
Do you happen to have your Gowi return for just soccer?
Indeed I do. Since I started it stands at
$230,153.00 $4,718.24 2.1%