August 19th – August 25th -$11,737.63
Easy come, easy go seems to be the theme for the first 2 months of year 6. July was amazing, with me sitting on close to $50,000 profit at numerous times, August has taken all those gains away and now I sit at break even. I actually prefer the inverse in these situations. I would prefer to have lost $50,000 in July and won it back in August. While the exact same result profit and loss wise, the result on my mental well being is completely different. The redemption story plays out much better in my head. But I can’t control when I will win and when I will lose, so I have to treat both impostors the same.
The closest thing to betting are stocks, we invest our money into what we feel are value and hope that over the long term we will make a profit. The markets are currently panicking for no obvious reason and it is at these times where the best value lies. This month alone, between stocks and betting I have managed to lose about $100,000. The funny thing is that as I am not as emotionally invested in my stocks, I am actually happy with this loss. For me it has no bearing on the stocks I already own as I have no plans to ever sell them, but it does allow me to buy more stocks at a 10-20% discount. Sure they might crash even further, but once I have bought, I couldn’t care less. I know with certainty that over time they will go back up and continue to make me a very nice passive income. The same can never be said of betting. No matter how long I bet for, I will always have the fear that one day the tiny edge I currently have will be gone. I need to take the same emotions I feel towards stocks (ie none) and carry them over to my betting. Ahh, the constant struggle.
I can distill every book I have read on investing in stocks into two simple rules.
- Only invest in index funds
- Buy when people are selling and sell when people are buying
That’s it. I’ve saved you months of reading time and thousands in book purchases. Follow those 2 rules and you will do better than 99.9% of people who invest in stocks. Even better, just follow Rule 1. If only Sports betting could be as easy to break down. I guess that is my main goal with all of this. To one day be able to distill betting into as few simple rules as possible. All I have at the moment is one rule to be better off than 99% of people.
- Do not bet
I hope to come up with a better solution in the future.
Finally, I am still waiting on the final result of the Betfair competition where I am hoping to win the grand prize ($15,000). I should know today and will have a post about how I tried (and failed or succeeded) to win it tomorrow.
Onto the weekly results and the AFL made $1,500 profit. Very frustrating as the bigger bets let me down. The NRL was amazing last week and this week was the exact opposite. Giving back $3,900. Even worse than that was the MLB with a horror week and ended down $7,100.
Dailyprofit members also had a horror week. I believe it has been the worst week so far with 11 units lost. I am looking at changing the pricing structure for the Sportpunter service in the coming weeks.
The Soccer betting season is not far off. I’ll try and find some time this week to post about what I am doing. So we pretty much start all over again. Another week left in awful August. Hopefully it will be a Splendid September. Come back tomorrow to get an inside look at how I break down competitions to give me the best possible chance to win them.
Total Loss for the week was $11,737.63
Stats Year 6
Total bet amount: $764,875.00
Bets Placed: 626
Half Payout: 8
Winning %: 41.9%
Total profit per day: $388,339.37 / 1882 = $206.34
Total Turnover: $22,650,907.30
Total ROI: 1.71%
AFL H2H $72,000.00 $2,904.53 4.0%
week profit/loss: 675.62
AFL Line $237,103.00 $12,568.16 5.3%
week profit/loss: 779.15
NRL $49,132.00 $(5,130.73) -10.4%
week profit/loss: -3908.65
MLB Totals $256,950.00 $851.02 0.3%
week profit/loss: -7122.50
Jason Kelly $3,915.00 $(3,915.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -250
Betswot $2,625.00 $63.20 2.4%
week profit/loss: -300
Odds Pushed Out $10,500.00 $142.50 1.4%
week profit/loss: -40
Personal $128,243.00 $(8,695.81) -6.8%
week profit/loss: -1571.25
Mistake $1,750.00 $1,760.75 100.6%
week profit/loss: 0