July 2nd – July 8th -$23,312.77

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8 Responses

  1. phatkoch says:

    Might be an obvious comment to make…. but why not try betting half your normal stakes during this sh!tty part of the year ?
    Sods law will then guarantee profit so you can feel bad about the profit missed, but that’s better than a loss eh?

  2. Steve says:

    Because I honestly believe it is variance, and it also isn’t running at a loss, so half bets would just make me half of the already small profit.
    This year will be a good test though. I’ve changed some things up and will see if they prove to be the missing piece of the puzzle.

  3. Interested says:

    Is it the case that a lot of the bets you place may suffer from motivational issues?
    If the services you follow don’t allow for motivation and injury type data, then in the second half of the year when these factors are most prevalent you may see your results deteriorate.
    I wold imagine this is the case in AFL, tennis and golf which all follow a roughly calendar season.

  4. Steve says:

    In the AFL later rounds teams used to mean to lose so they could get draft picks, that doesn’t happen anymore, and the AFL model is strongest at the end of the season, Tennis is all season long. I wouldn’t think Golfers try more at the start, middle or end of the season.

    It has been the poor soccer performance over the years.

  5. Interested says:

    So explain to me why the 14th ranked team is really keen to beat the 9th ranked team (who can still make the finals) in the final round? To ignore this sort of issue will surely cause a reduction in your return on turnover.

  6. Steve says:

    explain why a team sitting dead last like the sharks comes back from 24 points down 2 weeks in a row? pride? playing for their future contracts? There are many reason they will still play their best, if not better, as they now have the freedom of having nothing to play for.
    There are times where I won’t bet in these situations and they arose this week in the Super 15. Both Sharks and Waratahs had nothing to play for as they are assured places in the finals, one team lost and the other won easily.
    But it just doesn’t happen in the AFL anymore. the majority of teams play to the end of the season and the model performs best at the very start and the very end of the season.

  7. fizzer555 says:

    Steve,

    How do your Diamond Edge results look if split between favs and dogs. My own view is that the model finds most of its value in picking out vulnerable favs and does better with underdog picks.

  8. Steve says:

    Yes, same, but there are very few dog bets. Historically, the favs have given the most profit.

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