July 2nd – July 8th -$23,312.77
Well who didn’t see this coming? The start of year 5 and therefore the start of a new spreadsheet. While I am now trying to concentrate on my overall profit (which stands at $324,000), it sucks seeing a big red number in my shiny new spreadsheet. If I repeat the patterns that have emerged over the past 4 years, then I won’t be seeing any profit for another 6 months. It is quite a pronounced trend now, but I can’t see myself taking the next 6 months off. With only 7 rounds left in the AFL and Football season about to start, historically the next 6 months will see me moaning on a regular basis. I really hoped year 5 would buck the trend but it does not look like that will be happening. I just need to grind it out knowing that it is pure variance and eventually the July to December period will catch up with the Jan to June period.
I just decided to look at the results and they do show a real trend. Total profit over 4 years between July 1st – December 31st stands at $26,603 while the profit between January 1st – June 30th is $320,919. Add in this weeks result and we are break even for the July to December period. Now that I know this, at least I should be able to handle the next 6 months a little better. I will also off course look into what is causing this, but I believe it is simply because I am yet to find a really profitable Football model and the AFL season is mostly played in the January to June period.
Onto this weeks Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Week. Sorry guys, but children’s books are going to become a very common thing for me over the next few years, get used to some obscure and yet hilarious references. While Alexander only had to deal with a bad day, Steve on the other hand had the week from gambling hell. Only 1 Sportpunter model returning a profit, and that was a tiny $1,300 gain from the NRL model. The new Tennis model is just like the old one, but worse. It lost $3,800 over the second week of Wimbledon. The Baseball totals lost $500 and the Rugby made a loss of $1,100. But the big loss this week came courtesy of the AFL. It started terribly on Friday, the bets came out and my mantra this week was “NO MISTAKES”, while I lived up to it, Jonno on the other hand did not. Apparently some bugs found their way into his model and spat out some wrong numbers. I had placed a $10,000 bet on Adelaide and then went off to have my morning shower, when I returned refreshed, I saw a new update was out, an email sent and a new post on the forum. The new correct probabilities had been uploaded and my $10,000 bet was now a no bet, another bet was now on the other team and there was another bet that wasn’t a bet at all initially. If you’re confused reading that, then imagine how confused the bookies were when we all started placing bets on the other side just minutes after placing our initial bets. If Jonno had just not said anything, then we all would have made a huge profit, but ever the professional, he fixed the issue immediately and it cost us dearly. I didn’t fully lay the Adelaide bet off and that offered some respite, but the week still ended with me down $20,600 on the AFL… Ouch
ClubGOWI continued his really poor form with the World Cup, but managed a win on the Golf last night. I ended the week with $1,800 profit. Diamond Edge baseball has not lived up to expectations thus far and lost a further $2,300 and for once, missing the morning bets for PCG actually saved me from some losses and netted a profit of $2,200. Jason Kelly broke even for the week and Betswot almost pulled off an amazing win with one player who I had at odds of $800-1 in contention going into the final day. He crumbled like I hope the Germans do in their semi final to end the week with a $200 loss.
Not the start I wanted, but the start I expected. Instead of forcing you to read through my whinging, ill just put up a big MOAN and be done with it.
In other news, I have started my own service and have some Beta users testing it out as I iron out the many many bugs. I’ll hope to show some of the tipsters I follow how to actually run a fair service. I have already instituted my first policy. I record odds 2 hours after I release the bet. I’ll have a weekly wrap of how that service is doing on Thursdays and in 2 months if I think it’s any good I will then open it up to all my Australian readers. The service is very specific to the Australian market and I will explain more during the week. I’m pretty excited about the service as I feel it will help many guys just starting out or looking for something a bit different.
That’s it for week 1, year 5. Onto week 2.
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Total Loss for the week was $23,312.77
Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $128,179.00
Bets Placed: 148
Half Payout: 1
Winning %: 38.1%
Total profit per day: $324,212.07 / 1469 = $220.70
Total Turnover: $14,470,922.37
Total ROI: 2.%
ATP – SP $7,505.00 $(2,308.38) -30.8% 2 5 40.0%
week profit/loss: -2308.38
WTA – SP $4,603.00 $(1,475.85) -32.1%
week profit/loss: -1475.85
AFL H2H – SP $8,735.00 $(4,734.50) -54.2%
week profit/loss: -4734.50
AFL Line – SP $52,196.00 $(15,880.87) -30.4%
week profit/loss: -15880.87
SP MLB $20,920.00 $(527.57) -2.5%
week profit/loss: -527.57
Rugby SP $3,801.00 $(1,104.00) -29.0%
week profit/loss: -1104.00
NRL SP $1,835.00 $1,335.50 72.8%
week profit/loss: 1335.50
ClubGowi $11,599.00 $1,824.40 15.7%
week profit/loss: 1824.40
GOWI $57.00 $(57.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -57
Diamond Edge $10,500.00 $(2,350.00) -22.4%
week profit/loss: -2350
PCG $4,850.00 $2,193.50 45.2%
week profit/loss: 2193.50
Jason Kelly Golf $600.00 $0 0.0%
week profit/loss: 0
Betswot $978.00 $(228.00) -23.3% 1 10 10.0%
week profit/loss: -228