How should Tipsters record their odds?
After almost 4 years of paying for and following a large number of tipsters my number one gripe is still how they go about recording their odds. My opinion is that they should give a fair reflection of what the member can expect to get if they signed up. It should not cost a potential new subscriber anything before they know if the results are actually a true reflection. I have signed up to a few services and stopped following very quickly as it was plain to see that the odds quoted were a joke. I now half whatever the so called official results are and then determine if I will follow based on this number.
I can understand the tipsters thinking, they need to show a large return or no one would sign up, and in an unregulated market where other tipsters make up completely fictitious numbers, it is hard to stand out. Quality takes a lot of time to show and it’s an easy fix to just show results to best odds even if people can’t actually get on. I can also understand why a lot of tipsters will never change they way they record odds, because if they gave a true reflection of their service then no one would join as they would see the tipster actually makes a loss.
The best approach I have seen so far is that taken by Skeeve. His tips are in a very niche market and has a large number of followers and thus prices crash within seconds of release. Skeeve takes best odds 15 minutes after release available only from bookmakers where all members can get a decent bet on. This policy has seen me achieve odds 1.6% better then those recorded and anybody looking at his service can be guaranteed the same or better results. How amazing is that for new customers to be pleasantly surprised that they can actually make more then is stated on the tipsters website. I’m sure it took a lot of complaints before this policy was enacted, but a big WELL DONE goes out to Skeeve for this.
I have recorded my odds and the odds quoted by tipsters and have an average of 2.1% worse odds. It would surprise me if a normal member was able to better my results as I take this endeavor very seriously and place my bets as soon as I can (or wait if I know I can get better odds later). If I was able to achieve quoted odds, my profit would jump from $220,000 to $500,000. A massive difference.
Another issue are proofing sites. Again, when these bets are recorded, the odds stated are available, but it may be at a bookie that won’t take a decent bet and as soon as 1 person bets on it the price will drop dramatically. Sportpunter uses Pinnacle odds at time of release. This has resulted in a bot race and now one person who had the foresight to program a bot is able to beat all the users who manually bet. The price drops 5% almost immediate and a model that shows a long term ROI of 5% becomes useless for all but the person with the fastest bot.
Most of the tipster I follow have also been profiled by The Secret betting club, with most also winning some sort of medal. THE SBC should be congratulated for the work it does in trying to find profitable tipsters. But it again has issues, as they do proof a service, but I do not believe they actually place large bets on the service nor report exactly how much worse the odds are that they receive if they do so. I may be mistaken as I am not a member, but if this is the case then again, they are not helping their members fully.
EDIT: apologies to SBC for my ignorance. I was sent their latest newsletter and they do indeed go into great detail on achievable odds and do test properly. They have also converted me into a member with the amount of depth and work that is in these newsletters.
So after that rambling preamble, the question remains.
What can we do? how do we come up with a number that is fair for both the tipster and the member?
The best option is the Skeeve way, but tipsters have said they do not have time to do this, which is bullshit. They are paid very well and taking an extra 10 minutes is nothing, this task could also be automated. But I know this will never be the way they record odds. It would result in a massive difference compared to their current method.
So i propose a new way that I have dubbed Average Member Odds (AMO). It will be a new standard that takes no work from the tipster. It will take 3 members who are willing to spend an extra 5 minute per week to put in the odds they got and then take the average number of all 3. The 3 members will be a cross section of the betting world. We would have a regular punter who bets under $100 per unit, a professional who bets over $200 per unit and a member who can not bet at time of release and gets on whenever they can.
This number would be the closest reflection of what everyone can expect to get. I feel that any tipster who uses this system will show potential customers how confident and transparent they are in their system. Over time it will result in more subscribers and make a real difference in an industry with no regulation. All potential subscribers should want something along these lines instituted in any tipster they follow, as it will quickly sort the small profitable percentage from the large amount of con artists looking to deceive and make a quick buck.
This may not be the best option, but I wanted to start a conversation about this. What do you think? is it as big an issue as I think it is? How do you think they should be recorded? Add a comment below to keep the discussion going.
Below are how much better or worse my odds were for the Soccer models I follow for the month of January 2014.
Football Elite: 2.5% better (this is recorded against odds in the first email)
Skeeve: -3.4% worse (very small sample size, usually get better odds)
Football Investor: 0.9% better
TFA: -0.5% worse
ClubGOWI: -4.9% worse