Jan 14th – Jan 20th -$10,483.34

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26 Responses

  1. GasPanic says:

    I really don’t get the constant criticism of GOWI. The service is having a very solid January so far (10.9% ROI, 11.1% red selections, 9.7% blue selections). I also haven’t got any problems getting the quoted prices, more often than not getting better ones even. I have only missed one bet (on Brentford) because odds dropped and didn’t recover which would have been a winner.

  2. Steve says:

    Hey Gaspanic,
    The criticism is not based on 20 days performance (nor should anything be based of such a short time frame). The criticism is based on how the service is run. I have been with it for over a year now and can say that my results (and everyone will have different results), have been nothing like what is quoted on the website.

    I am extremely (almost to the point of not believing) that you are getting all the quoted prices and “more often than not getting better ones”. I would say you are the first ever to say that. If you are beating the odds, then I would like to know how, as the graphs on every odds comparison site paint a very different picture.

  3. GasPanic says:

    I’m willing to share my spreadsheet. I usually try to place the level-ball and positive handicap bets immediately and wait negatives and overs til the match has started. In any case I’ll try to monitor the markets throughout the day. For example the Nancy -1 bet yesterday which was given out at 2.40 was trading at 2.60 before kickoff. The Senegal price was stable for 90 minutes after the email til it crashed. Today’s tennis bet I placed with Marathon at 1.94.

  4. Steve says:

    If you are waiting for the match to start than I feel you are costing yourself money. If he advises for example Over 2.5 @ odds of 2.10 and you need to wait for 10-15 minutes to pass before the odds are at that price, than you are not getting value. Same with the handicaps.

    Marathon is known to limit accounts to peanuts after a few bets, give it a few more wins and you will see that too.

    I’d like to hear your opinion in about 3 months time. As I have said over and over again, I feel I will make a profit of between 0-3% long term with this service (which I am more than happy with), but no one is making ~16% long term.

  5. Galfondini says:

    With all due respect, some of us have been with him for years. You will NOT be able to get anywhere close his prices over time by placing all bets manually. He runs a respectable 3-5% service. He does NOT run a respectable 15+% service as he himself claims. No one here disputes his competence at the betting game, however he absolutely stinks at running a service with fair odds recording.

  6. Galfondini says:

    Also, I would like to point out to you that the Senegal bet wasn´t an official one, hence the stability as people just don´t bet the unofficial mentions the same way they do the red type. As Steve said, good luck with taking outlier odds at Marathon over a period of time. Welcome to the betting game btw 😀

  7. GasPanic says:

    Guess I’ve been lucky with Marathon or my stakes are too small (<100€). Nothing compared to the notorious UK books such as Stan James and Betfred who limited me faster than I could say valuebet.

    FWIW I have made a screenshot of all the bets I have placed so far. So feel free to compare them with your own data: http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img537/3730/zd5LH3.jpg

    I know that the sample is way too small to mean anything. I was more trying to make a general point about the availabiltity of prices.

  8. Steve says:

    Yes, at those stakes, accounts should last a little longer.

    Looking at your image, you have $2.10 on the Both teams to score for tonight’s Ivory Coast game. You do realise he will record at the $2.25 odds. So you have received 12% worse odds than the official ones?

    Also it looks like 1 unit is 40 euro for you. Let’s say on average there are 125 units bet per month (from my data). So you will bet 5,000 euro and make between 100-250 euro profit (2-5%). After subscription fees, is that “potential” profit really worth all the effort you are going to???

  9. Andrew says:

    Where do you live? I am from the UK and I am able to match most of the odds, or at least get to within a few ticks. I have compared times we receive the GOWI email with Steve and I was getting it up to 30 seconds before he was. This basically means I’m following a different service – I can match the odds while Steve has no chance and has had to adapt the way he follows GOWI.

    That aside, results in 2014 were pretty disappointing but I’m still confident that Keith knows what he’s doing. GOWI was so good in 2013 that I dedicated far too much of my bank to this one service, a mistake which I have since rectified. I am enjoying GOWI a hell of a lot more now that my stakes are smaller and losses can be covered by other services.

    You won’t get much longer with Marathon, especially if Keith keeps up what has been a pretty good start to 2015. I am limited to £1 bets even in the Premier League!

    I’ve had to stop following GOWI in markets like golf, as it’s too difficult when you can’t bet with Euro bookies.

  10. GasPanic says:

    I’m from Germany which presumably means I get the emails earlier than Steve as well. I’m somewhat restricted as SBO and 188bet pulled out of the German market so I’m relying mostly on Pinnacle for the Asian lines. The odds recording issue is a concern but I can’t comment on that yet. But as I haven’t had any problem to match or better the prices so far I’m optimistic in that regard.

    What I like about GOWI and what makes me confident about long-term profitability are the write-ups which for me is by far the most important thing to judge a service on. If you play around with some simulations on Excel you realize how little meaning results have. Even a 10% service will have recorded a loss after as many as 1000 bets due to variance occasionally.

  11. GasPanic says:

    Average units and stakes would be higher than 40€ but if these are indeed the margins that I can expect from the service then it obviously wouldn’t be worth it. But as I said in my previous comment I’m a little more optimistic than that. Let’s see how it goes.

  12. Andrew says:

    You are right. While I’ve seen other tipsters change their style during a bad run, Keith’s write ups do seem consistent. There was some concern expressed when he ‘scaled back’ in December, but I actually like this approach, although I do understand the concerns.

    Cool username, btw.

  13. syko says:

    I always have some problem with max acceptable odds. You noticed that 2.1 is 12% worse than 2.25. Taking 12% worse odds will affect ROI 12% as well only when all bets are winners (not possible in real world:) ). But let’s assume that tipster has average odds 2.0 and arround 50% from all bets will be winners. 12% worse odds affects “only” 6% ROI in negative way longterm. It means in Gowi case that that even taking 12% worse odds will have sense if we speak about 10-15% ROI. Correct me if I’m wrong.

  14. Steve says:

    Yes, BUT we are not talking about a 10-15% return, we are talking about a 2-5% return max.

  15. syko says:

    I thought that Gowi return would be 10-15% if somebody was able to have the same odds as him (like today 2.25 on btts). Then taking even 10-15 % worse odds would bring some profit (2-5%).

  16. Steve says:

    Yep, I think you would be right there.

  17. Mariano says:

    I saw 9.7% on blue selections and I thought “Wow, I must be doing something very wrong” because It has been a very good month on the “red” ones, but in my case about 75% of that profit is gone due to the blue ones (and I was lucky that I decided to skip the golf this last weekend).
    Now I saw you have some multiple at odds 29 on 16/1. What was that ? I never saw it and I can’t find it on the emails from that day either…

  18. GasPanic says:

    As well as betting them as singles I combined the Ligue 2 selections that day. If odds are holding up it’s a good way to improve profits. Quick example: Say you have two bets at quotes of 2.20 with a chance of winning of 50% (true odds 2.00) which means your expected return is 10%. Combining them to a double you’re looking at odds of 4.84 (true odds: 4.00) and 21% value. Obviously it works in the other direction as well if the singles weren’t valuebets in the first place so these opportunities are rare.

    But skipping the golf may have been the big mistake as the majority of the profit actually came from Jerry Kelly finishing Top 10.

    I think it’s also important to really read the newsletter in its entirety and not just the selections in bold. Guinea’s price on the handicap was mentioned yesterday and that moved out significantly til kickoff. So I bet them at big odds against getting a full goal (+1) headstart for 1 unit.

  19. Andrew says:

    We are having a good month with GOWI, but other guys on here have been following him for years and there is little debate about it: GOWI was a bit disappointing last year.

    We didn’t have ‘blue selections’ but there were other bets suggested in the write ups, many of which I followed. If Keith interprets a game incorrectly then chances are the ‘official’ bet will lose, as well as any other suggestions he makes. The results in 2014 were not as good as they have been in previous years, whether you read the full newsletter or not.

    As you have pointed out, these poor results could have been down to variance, which is just one reason I will keep going with GOWI. While I might have been critical of results, there is no question that I’ve learnt a hell of a lot about betting from Keith.

    I do think you are taking a great approach to following this service, though, and I’m pretty sure I’ll learn a couple of things from you; I’ve already picked up a lot just from your posts on this article.

    It’s very hard to find much discussion about GOWI outwith this website, but it would be good if we could maybe start a thread in the forum so we can see different approaches to following.

  20. GasPanic says:

    Sure! I’m always open to good discussion.

  21. Air says:

    Mariano u probably missed January 1st letter’s parlay.

    Chelsea to score over 2.5 goals.

    Liverpool- Leicester over 1.5 first half goals.

    Manchester City -Sunderland both to score.

    This treble (0.5 units) pays circa 18.0.

  22. Mariano says:

    Yes, I missed that one because when I checked all I could get was 14-15. Still I would be around -6u with that one, can’t see how GasPanic is +9% ROI (and I don’t see he has that big parlay either).

  23. Air says:

    Yeah other than this big hit, blue selections’ results are poor in my scoresheet as well.

  24. syko says:

    My plan was not to get involved in blue selections but I made a mistake and placed New Year’s Day parlay. On 9th of January I changed my mind and I’ve started to bet blue selections. Till now they are -8% ROI without 01.01 parlay and +29% ROI with this lucky winner in my case.

  25. Andrew says:

    HA! That is exactly the same as me.

  26. Maj Privacy says:

    This is the main reason why people lose money like you bro, they dont know the real % they are getting. Please, many of us are sick with unfair odds recording, and GOWI is unfortunately the prime ones at that job

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