Jan 14th – Jan 20th -$10,483.34
This week saw me hit a new high of $80,000 before dropping $20,000 on Sunday thanks mostly to NBL and the late Soccer bets. If 4 and a half years ago I was told that I would lose $20,000 in a single day on numerous occasions, I would never have started. Now a loss like that has very little impact. I guess it’s like building a muscle, you keep hurting (tearing) it, but it rebuilds stronger than before. The same with these constant big losses, at first they hurt (A lot), but over time, each one hurts that little bit less. It’s a case of getting through that initial stage that hurts a hell of a lot, sadly most people give up and that’s why they don’t have the physique they want or the profit from betting they crave.
Before jumping into the results I’d like to mention the forum is now set up. It needs a lot of work (design wise), but you can join and start posting right now. I hope to see some great content come out of the forum and I hope some of us “old” guys can help out the newbies. Don’t be shy to post what you think is a stupid question, we all started at the beginning and none of us would be where we are without help along the way. I did receive some emails from people willing to moderate the forum, but what I will do for now is moderate it myself and see who are the most active members of the forum and I’ll tap them on the shoulder in the coming months and ask if they would like to take over moderating it. Go sign up now.
Onto the weeks results and the NBL had another disaster week with $11,800 lost and that means we are sitting on a loss for the season. This model is always going to have extremely high variance from season to season with only 20 rounds and maybe 100-150 bets per season. The NFL season ends in 2 weeks (and I’ll be there). This weeks playoff games returned $2,100. The NHL was up a heap early in the week but the last few days have been a disaster, it managed to make a $900 profit though.
ClubGOWI made $4,300 this week between official and unofficial plays. Even though I have paid for a year in advance, I am contemplating dropping the service as the odds recording (especially now with blue selections), has become even worse. As mentioned before though, it is a great resource for betting the opposite when the odds are pushed out, this week added $850 profit and after 50 picks (very small sample size), I am sitting on a 24.7% ROI. I am flat staking only $500 per bet on these, but the limits are very high on these markets.
Both Golf tipsters lost a combined $900 this week. Really hope I can get a few big winners soon, it’s been a real drain lately. Golf really is the perfect example of long term betting. Even with an edge, you can go a very very long time between drinks.
Onto the Soccer and we had the good and the bad this week. TFA was great with $7,700 profit and all 5 systems I follow are in profit for the season. The rest were pretty bad. The worst was Football Elite with 0 wins, 7 losses and a push for -$7,000. Football Value lost $1,000, Winabobatoo lost $2,000 and Football Investor lost $3,050.
Just one of those weeks really, These are always easier to take when you are giving back some of the profits. No idea why though, $10,000 is $10,000 every time. Don’t forget to join the forum. Until next week.
Total Loss for the week was $10,483.34
Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $4,197,320.93
Profit/Loss: $59,894.18
POT: 1.43%
Bets Placed: 6095
Won: 2136
Lost: 2880
Half Payout: 47
Refunded: 1032
Winning %: 42.6%
Total profit per day: $407,419.02 / 1665 = $244.69
Total Turnover: $18,540,064.30
Total ROI: 2.20%
NBL Totals $64,506.00 $(9,652.84) -15.0%
week profit/loss: -1098
NBL Line $155,762.00 $5,208.96 3.3%
week profit/loss: -10,714
NFL Totals $130,134.00 $17,204.29 13.2%
week profit/loss: 682.50
NFL Line $71,319.00 $(263.08) -0.4%
week profit/loss: 1441.50
NHL Totals $181,085.00 $27,058.75 14.9%
week profit/loss: 892.16
ClubGowi $466,383.00 $8,269.71 1.8%
week profit/loss: 2175.50
GOWI $12,201.00 $(1,200.00) -9.8%
week profit/loss: 2160
PCG $206,031.00 $(4,284.23) -2.1%
week profit/loss: 0
Jason Kelly Golf $10,816.93 $(8,568.53) -79.2%
week profit/loss: -575
Betswot $8,848.00 $(7,093.00) -80.2%
week profit/loss: -350
FB Elite $119,011.00 $6,341.50 5.3%
week profit/loss: -7000
Football Value $38,000.00 $(7,525.00) -19.8%
week profit/loss: -1000
TFA 21 $211,245.00 $757.20 0.4%
week profit/loss: 2108
TFA 41 $203,276.00 $468.00 0.2%
week profit/loss: 4793
6-21-31 $120,657.00 $10,511.22 8.7%
week profit/loss: 2691
D1-D6 $71,500.00 $2,775.00 3.9%
week profit/loss: 1545
E1-E6 $58,940.00 $19,780.00 33.6%
week profit/loss: -3390
Mike Lindley $53,000.00 $(2,194.50) -4.1%
week profit/loss: -1889
WINABOBATOO $206,979.00 $(4,434.68) -2.1%
week profit/loss: -138
FBI combo $98,500.00 $17,859.00 18.1%
week profit/loss: 1340
FBI Euro $111,142.00 $20,563.00 18.5%
week profit/loss: -4392
Odds pushed out $25,750.00 $6,353.00 24.7%
week profit/loss: 845
Personal $28,297.00 $(5,731.21) -20.3%
week profit/loss: 0
Mistakes $13,735.00 $(13,735.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0
I really don’t get the constant criticism of GOWI. The service is having a very solid January so far (10.9% ROI, 11.1% red selections, 9.7% blue selections). I also haven’t got any problems getting the quoted prices, more often than not getting better ones even. I have only missed one bet (on Brentford) because odds dropped and didn’t recover which would have been a winner.
Hey Gaspanic,
The criticism is not based on 20 days performance (nor should anything be based of such a short time frame). The criticism is based on how the service is run. I have been with it for over a year now and can say that my results (and everyone will have different results), have been nothing like what is quoted on the website.
I am extremely (almost to the point of not believing) that you are getting all the quoted prices and “more often than not getting better ones”. I would say you are the first ever to say that. If you are beating the odds, then I would like to know how, as the graphs on every odds comparison site paint a very different picture.
I’m willing to share my spreadsheet. I usually try to place the level-ball and positive handicap bets immediately and wait negatives and overs til the match has started. In any case I’ll try to monitor the markets throughout the day. For example the Nancy -1 bet yesterday which was given out at 2.40 was trading at 2.60 before kickoff. The Senegal price was stable for 90 minutes after the email til it crashed. Today’s tennis bet I placed with Marathon at 1.94.
If you are waiting for the match to start than I feel you are costing yourself money. If he advises for example Over 2.5 @ odds of 2.10 and you need to wait for 10-15 minutes to pass before the odds are at that price, than you are not getting value. Same with the handicaps.
Marathon is known to limit accounts to peanuts after a few bets, give it a few more wins and you will see that too.
I’d like to hear your opinion in about 3 months time. As I have said over and over again, I feel I will make a profit of between 0-3% long term with this service (which I am more than happy with), but no one is making ~16% long term.
With all due respect, some of us have been with him for years. You will NOT be able to get anywhere close his prices over time by placing all bets manually. He runs a respectable 3-5% service. He does NOT run a respectable 15+% service as he himself claims. No one here disputes his competence at the betting game, however he absolutely stinks at running a service with fair odds recording.
Also, I would like to point out to you that the Senegal bet wasn´t an official one, hence the stability as people just don´t bet the unofficial mentions the same way they do the red type. As Steve said, good luck with taking outlier odds at Marathon over a period of time. Welcome to the betting game btw 😀
Guess I’ve been lucky with Marathon or my stakes are too small (<100€). Nothing compared to the notorious UK books such as Stan James and Betfred who limited me faster than I could say valuebet.
FWIW I have made a screenshot of all the bets I have placed so far. So feel free to compare them with your own data: http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img537/3730/zd5LH3.jpg
I know that the sample is way too small to mean anything. I was more trying to make a general point about the availabiltity of prices.
Yes, at those stakes, accounts should last a little longer.
Looking at your image, you have $2.10 on the Both teams to score for tonight’s Ivory Coast game. You do realise he will record at the $2.25 odds. So you have received 12% worse odds than the official ones?
Also it looks like 1 unit is 40 euro for you. Let’s say on average there are 125 units bet per month (from my data). So you will bet 5,000 euro and make between 100-250 euro profit (2-5%). After subscription fees, is that “potential” profit really worth all the effort you are going to???
Where do you live? I am from the UK and I am able to match most of the odds, or at least get to within a few ticks. I have compared times we receive the GOWI email with Steve and I was getting it up to 30 seconds before he was. This basically means I’m following a different service – I can match the odds while Steve has no chance and has had to adapt the way he follows GOWI.
That aside, results in 2014 were pretty disappointing but I’m still confident that Keith knows what he’s doing. GOWI was so good in 2013 that I dedicated far too much of my bank to this one service, a mistake which I have since rectified. I am enjoying GOWI a hell of a lot more now that my stakes are smaller and losses can be covered by other services.
You won’t get much longer with Marathon, especially if Keith keeps up what has been a pretty good start to 2015. I am limited to £1 bets even in the Premier League!
I’ve had to stop following GOWI in markets like golf, as it’s too difficult when you can’t bet with Euro bookies.
I’m from Germany which presumably means I get the emails earlier than Steve as well. I’m somewhat restricted as SBO and 188bet pulled out of the German market so I’m relying mostly on Pinnacle for the Asian lines. The odds recording issue is a concern but I can’t comment on that yet. But as I haven’t had any problem to match or better the prices so far I’m optimistic in that regard.
What I like about GOWI and what makes me confident about long-term profitability are the write-ups which for me is by far the most important thing to judge a service on. If you play around with some simulations on Excel you realize how little meaning results have. Even a 10% service will have recorded a loss after as many as 1000 bets due to variance occasionally.
Average units and stakes would be higher than 40€ but if these are indeed the margins that I can expect from the service then it obviously wouldn’t be worth it. But as I said in my previous comment I’m a little more optimistic than that. Let’s see how it goes.
You are right. While I’ve seen other tipsters change their style during a bad run, Keith’s write ups do seem consistent. There was some concern expressed when he ‘scaled back’ in December, but I actually like this approach, although I do understand the concerns.
Cool username, btw.
I always have some problem with max acceptable odds. You noticed that 2.1 is 12% worse than 2.25. Taking 12% worse odds will affect ROI 12% as well only when all bets are winners (not possible in real world:) ). But let’s assume that tipster has average odds 2.0 and arround 50% from all bets will be winners. 12% worse odds affects “only” 6% ROI in negative way longterm. It means in Gowi case that that even taking 12% worse odds will have sense if we speak about 10-15% ROI. Correct me if I’m wrong.
Yes, BUT we are not talking about a 10-15% return, we are talking about a 2-5% return max.
I thought that Gowi return would be 10-15% if somebody was able to have the same odds as him (like today 2.25 on btts). Then taking even 10-15 % worse odds would bring some profit (2-5%).
Yep, I think you would be right there.
I saw 9.7% on blue selections and I thought “Wow, I must be doing something very wrong” because It has been a very good month on the “red” ones, but in my case about 75% of that profit is gone due to the blue ones (and I was lucky that I decided to skip the golf this last weekend).
Now I saw you have some multiple at odds 29 on 16/1. What was that ? I never saw it and I can’t find it on the emails from that day either…
As well as betting them as singles I combined the Ligue 2 selections that day. If odds are holding up it’s a good way to improve profits. Quick example: Say you have two bets at quotes of 2.20 with a chance of winning of 50% (true odds 2.00) which means your expected return is 10%. Combining them to a double you’re looking at odds of 4.84 (true odds: 4.00) and 21% value. Obviously it works in the other direction as well if the singles weren’t valuebets in the first place so these opportunities are rare.
But skipping the golf may have been the big mistake as the majority of the profit actually came from Jerry Kelly finishing Top 10.
I think it’s also important to really read the newsletter in its entirety and not just the selections in bold. Guinea’s price on the handicap was mentioned yesterday and that moved out significantly til kickoff. So I bet them at big odds against getting a full goal (+1) headstart for 1 unit.
We are having a good month with GOWI, but other guys on here have been following him for years and there is little debate about it: GOWI was a bit disappointing last year.
We didn’t have ‘blue selections’ but there were other bets suggested in the write ups, many of which I followed. If Keith interprets a game incorrectly then chances are the ‘official’ bet will lose, as well as any other suggestions he makes. The results in 2014 were not as good as they have been in previous years, whether you read the full newsletter or not.
As you have pointed out, these poor results could have been down to variance, which is just one reason I will keep going with GOWI. While I might have been critical of results, there is no question that I’ve learnt a hell of a lot about betting from Keith.
I do think you are taking a great approach to following this service, though, and I’m pretty sure I’ll learn a couple of things from you; I’ve already picked up a lot just from your posts on this article.
It’s very hard to find much discussion about GOWI outwith this website, but it would be good if we could maybe start a thread in the forum so we can see different approaches to following.
Sure! I’m always open to good discussion.
Mariano u probably missed January 1st letter’s parlay.
Chelsea to score over 2.5 goals.
Liverpool- Leicester over 1.5 first half goals.
Manchester City -Sunderland both to score.
This treble (0.5 units) pays circa 18.0.
Yes, I missed that one because when I checked all I could get was 14-15. Still I would be around -6u with that one, can’t see how GasPanic is +9% ROI (and I don’t see he has that big parlay either).
Yeah other than this big hit, blue selections’ results are poor in my scoresheet as well.
My plan was not to get involved in blue selections but I made a mistake and placed New Year’s Day parlay. On 9th of January I changed my mind and I’ve started to bet blue selections. Till now they are -8% ROI without 01.01 parlay and +29% ROI with this lucky winner in my case.
HA! That is exactly the same as me.
This is the main reason why people lose money like you bro, they dont know the real % they are getting. Please, many of us are sick with unfair odds recording, and GOWI is unfortunately the prime ones at that job