2012/13 Soccer Season Review +$15,813.01

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2 Responses

  1. Skg says:

    From the looks of that, are you really sure soccer is even profitable? It would appear that over the course of the year there was an overall downwards trend interupted by a massive heater, before a big crash on the other side. All your positive action essentially came over what would appear to be 2 weeks in march.

    To me, that sort of behavior would seem to be more indicative of being lucky and getting on the right side of variance. Rather than considering your overall ROI, perhaps it might be best to look at the distribution of your winnings, or the distribution of your winning weeks. A good model should, ideally, winning and loosing weeks roughly centered around zero and exhibiting decent clustering (unless the model is predicated on picking long shot winners), with the distribution of your winnings being slightly on the positive side of that to yield a positive ROI. Just from eyeballing it, your distribution of wins and losses over the last years soccer bets would be a strong cluster someone on the negative side of zero, with two big outliers on the positive side to give you a net profit.

  2. admin says:

    Hi SKG,
    I agree the result and graph do not look great, but as this was my first full soccer season I made a hell of a lot of mistakes. Include two models who usually perform doing very badly, with one losing over $30,000 and another barely breaking even and the results are skewed a little.

    In saying that, there will always be one model that performs poorly and one that performs well over expectations. My hope is that long term they go towards their average. I’m in this for the long term (20-30 year horizon) and as I perfect the balance in the portfolio and add and remove services, I would hope to see an upwards curve. You could say the same about my overall graph for year 3, it was treading water for 8 months, followed by a crazy profit and then a small crash, but if that graph is added to my year 1 and 2 results, it shows a much steadier upward curve.

    My average odds are in the $2.90 range, so I am going to be losing a lot more then winning and the majority of the models I am following are going after those longer odds.

    It was a real challenging year and I made a number of mistakes, too many overlapping models, staking to high on some models and just following some that had no chance of making a profit due to a misrepresentation of quoted odds. Hopefully Soccer V2 remedies some of this and can achieve what I set out for last season.

    Once again thanks for your comments, they always make me think. I just wish my maths skills were a bit better so I could follow through on your recommendations.

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