January 2016 Monthly Review +$30,850.00
2016 starts with a nice return. It got off to a fantastic start, stayed between the $30 – $50,000 mark for most of the month and after jumping over the $60,000 mark it gave half of it back on the last few days. I would take that return every single month if it was offered to me. It’s been a lot less stressful having to write a monthly post, always having to concentrate on the very short term has not served me well. I can see myself eventually moving to quarterly updates but for this year we will stick with monthly. I also assumed site traffic would drop off with me posting less, but it has kept increasing. Along with these updates I’m hoping to publish two other articles each month.
So in January I bet a total of $646,090.00 and made a profit of $30,850.00 which is a 4.77% ROI. The swing between trough and peak was $74,430.00. I placed 511 bets and won 190 of them, lost 294 and 27 were refunded.
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Let’s break it down into each individual sport.
NFL
The NFL was the star performer for the month with a combined $58,230.00 return. Most of that came in the final round of the regular season. The playoffs also produced a high percentage of winning bets.
NFL Total bets
$68,850.00 was bet on totals and $28,320.00 profit was made at 41.1% ROI. I placed 18 bets and won 11 of them. This recouped all the losses throughout the season and finally bought the total P/L back to a tiny profit. It has been a poor year for what is normally the stronger NFL model.
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NFL Line bets
$41,350.00 was bet on the line and $29,910.00 profit was made at 72.3% ROI. I placed 17 bets and won 14 of them. This goes to show that even over a month period that variance plays a massive role. It has been an amazing season for the line bets.
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Soccer
Soccer got off to a great start and was sitting on $25,000 profit half way through the month. It gave that all back and more by the end of the month. The Soccer combo system performed well with $226,800 bet and a $11,750 return at 5.2%. The TFA models dragged the returns down with the Euro bets losing $2,720 at –7.1% and the Draw system losing a massive $12,480 at -37.3%. From all the emails this year, there is a huge chance the TFA model won’t be around next season (at least in it’s current format).
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In total, $299,300.00 was bet for a $2,180 loss at -0.7% ROI.
NHL
I think the graph below tells you everything you need to know. A shocking month for the NHL. $61,870.00 bet which resulted in a loss of $10,180.00 at -16.5% ROI. Patterns keep repeating and I stupidly keep following.
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NBA
That same pattern also happens every season in the NBA. Come January and the model flips and seems to give all the profit back. This season Jonno had told me the changes he made should fix that, it seems they have not.
NBA H2H lost $6,040.00 at a -27.8% ROI and Totals lost $8,460.00 at -8.6% ROI. I have stopped following the H2H bets but will continue on with totals.
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NBL
This will be my last NBL season. There are too many issues with following it. Hard to get a bet on, model not being player based and not adjusting quickly enough to team tactics. I will look through all past results to see if there is an edge somewhere but after this season ends I will be done with the NBL.
The Line bets did well in January with $31,770.00 bet for a $6,270.00 profit. The totals continued their terrible season with $98,490.00 bet for a loss of $8,460.00.
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The NBA and NHL dragged down the profits this month, but it was the other american sport which easily covered those losses and helped end the month very nicely. I’ll do a season review for the NFL next week. It’s a great feeling getting a new year off to a positive start. 2015 was a poor year and I hope that 2016 does a little better.
This is also your final chance to join Dailyprofit at the cheapest level for the upcoming AFL season, prices increase in a few days. In about 6 weeks we will also be releasing our first ever Horse racing service and it will be limited to 50 members and current Dailyprofit members will be allowed to join first. If there are any spots left it will then be opened to all.
Total Profit for the month was $30,850.00
[mc4wp_form]
Stats Year 6
Total bet amount: $4,172,980.00
Profit/Loss: $26,100.00
POT: 0.63%
Bets Placed: 3281
Won: 1232
Lost: 1680
Half Payout: 24
Refunded: 345
Winning %: 42.3%
Total profit per day: $412,160.00 / 2041 = $201.94
Total Turnover: $26,059,010.00
Total ROI: 1.58%
NBL Totals $149,730.00 $(22,480.00) -15.0%
month profit/loss: -6160
NBL Line $171,300.00 $4,450.00 2.6%
month profit/loss: 8940
NHL Totals $251,060.00 $(6,690.00) -2.7%
month profit/loss: -7170
NFL Totals $394,890.00 $730.00 0.2%
month profit/loss: 17270
NFL Line $336,380.00 $44,490.00 13.2%
month profit/loss: 29910
NBA Totals $388,800.00 $12,230.00 3.1%
month profit/loss: -4260
NBA H2H $125,930.00 $3,510.00 2.8%
month profit/loss: -5890
Soccer combo $860,130.00 $32,870.00 3.8%
month profit/loss: 7400
E1-E6 $93,500.00 $(13,850.00) -14.8%
month profit/loss: -2720
D1-D6 $92,500.00 $(9,840.00) -10.6%
month profit/loss: -12480
Steamers $5,000.00 $(1,560.00) -31.2%
month profit/loss: 0
Jason Kelly $7,050.00 $(3,810.00) -54.0%
month profit/loss: 0
Betswot $3,610.00 $(920.00) -25.5%
month profit/loss: 0
Odds Pushed Out $21,500.00 $40 0.2%
month profit/loss: 520
Personal $319,230.00 $(10,210.00) -3.2%
month profit/loss: 0
Mistake $5.550.00 $6,270.00 113.0%
month profit/loss: 2520
Can you say what the price increase will be?I’m looking to join for the AFL tips, but as the season doesn’t start until late March, I’m reluctant to join now even though the price is going to increase.
it will be cheaper to join today and pay a month in advance then to wait. Prices going up this afternoon.
Just checked on the site but it says subscriptions are now closed. Guess I missed the boat… any chance I could still catch the cheaper price for the subscription?
Hi Will,
Sorry mate, I would have to do it for everyone else too, I gave 4 warnings over the last month. It isn’t meant as a marketing tactic, it was simply me saying prices were going up and following through with what I said.
Fair enough Steve – I will probably do the monthly first anyway to test this out given that the monthly vs season prices aren’t too far off.
I do have a few questions for you however (apologies if this might not be the right post to ask in but it is the most recent):
1. On NRL – What is the discrepancy between the SP official results (H2H and Line Bets vs the DailyProfit results? I noticed SP official performance is much worse than the DP quoted 11% ROI figure, hence I’m still slightly hesitant to sign up for NRL.
2. I can only commit a small bank (£4,000). Would you recommend sticking to only AFL & NRL, or to go for the American sports as well? (Based on your reviews, I assume only NFL?)
3. At the moment I’m planning to use 3% per unit and make around 320 bets this season in AFL and NRL using your service. This means turning over my bank around 10 times which should give me a profit of 50% of my bank assuming 5% average ROI. Do you think this scenario is even achievable?
4. How hard is it to get good odds with AFL and NRL? I don’t think I’ll have time shopping for odds so I will most likely just bet whenever the tips come out or when I have time on the weekend. Also, if I know when the SP circulation is, is it possible to wait a few days after the odds rebound and place bets then?
I’m new to the tipster world and Aussie sports in general so please bear with me if these are dumb questions.
Cheers,
Will
Hey Will,
1: We only advise line bets for the NRL. SP results were a 1.4% ROI over 151 bets for 2015 and Dailyprofit results were a 4.3% ROI over 146 bets. Just simple variance over so few bets. I’m guessing the 5 bets we missed all lost. My staking is also different then sportpunter (to match up with the other models)
2. My recommendation has always been for members to stick to AFL, NRL, Super Rugby and NFL.
3. I recommend you use a 50 point bank, so 1 unit will be $66. Our bets are between 0.5 and 3 units. So your max bet will be $200 on a selection. The goal with the SP picks is to make between 50-100% ROC each year.
4. As with any tipster, the harder you work the better results you will get and getting the best odds is one of the core differences between a winning and losing punter. Odds can rebound and for certain sports they do, but beating the closing line is important and betting late is not a good option. The official results are based on one bookmaker only, so with a bit of effort the results can be matched or beaten.
Hope those answers helped.
Thanks Steve for the thorough reply. I’ll be signing up soon – can’t wait until the season properly kicks off.