Jan 1st – Jan 7th +$3,255.02

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16 Responses

  1. Edwin says:

    Hello Steve,

    Good luck with gambling this year and thanks for your great blog, inspiring for all of us!

    This football season I am following a few football systems with
    reasonable success but I am always looking for other football systems, clubgowi is one of them.
    The emails from clubgowi come in at 10.00 the day of the match
    which should be a big plus because the liquidity with bookmakers should
    be much bigger than.
    I know you have been following clubgowi lately,
    but you say it has been very difficult to place the bets, to get near
    the advised odds.
    Do you place the bets straight away at 10.00 or later during the day?

    Thanks in advance!

    Regards,
    Edwin.

  2. Brian says:

    I cannot respond for Steve as do not follow ClubGowi but I assume that liquidity isn’t the problem. With the leagues they are betting there would be no problem getting large stakes on which is a plus. However it seems, that like many tipsters, they are recording stale prices or the price they took themselves as opposed to what the widely available one is. Which will obviously knock plenty of % off their advertised results.

  3. Steve says:

    Hi guys,
    Brian is 100% right.
    I place bets the second they come out. ClubGowi states prices that are not achievable (usually odds I can’t find anywhere, or UK bookies prices that won’t allow anyone who makes a profit to bet at). To be fair, I would say this is the case about 50% of the time.

    The bet limits are nothing to worry about, I could bet 5-10 times as much on the majority of the bets with no problems as they are mostly Asian handicaps.

    I have now placed 121 ClubGowi bets and am getting 4% worse odds. This should still allow for a profit over the long run. I would wait for a few more months of my testing before jumping in.

    Hope this helped
    Steve

  4. Edwin says:

    Thanks for the input Steve and Brian, for sure helpful.

    According to their website a ROI of 14 % is achieved in 2013.
    To be honest, to achieve a ROI of 14 % with average odds of a little over 2.00 is great, probably too great to be true….Normally not much value in these lower odds range. So I am not surprised this is not really achievable.

    We have to bear in mind a loss in ROI of about 5 % to get near what is achievable.

    But even if you lose 5 % on the odds still a good profit can be made I guess…if the results continue like they have been doing!!

    Good luck anyway!

    Edwin.

  5. Steve says:

    Hey Edwin,
    Yes, that is my hope too. I am going to do a post soon about how much 5% or 10% worse odds will affect the profit of a system. Using the ClubGOWI system as an example.
    I will be asking Jonno from Sportpunter to help with the math as I feel it is more complicated then I think. Hope to have the article up soon.

  6. Edwin says:

    Hi Steve,

    That is a good idea yes.

    I was thinking this:
    If there are 100 bets with odds of 2.00 and the advised ROI would be 10 % what ROI would you get with a loss of 5 % in odds?
    At advised odds you would win 55 bets with odds of 2.00 and lose 45 bets, so a profit of 10 points, a ROI of 10 %.
    At
    placed odds (loss of 5 %) you would win 55 bets with odds of 1.95 (2.00 minus 5 %) and
    lose 45 bets, so a profit of 55 *0.95 = 52.25 – 45 = 7.25 points.
    The
    ROI would be 7.25 % in stead of 10 %….The lower the advised ROI the
    less you will lose in ROI and the higher the advised odds the more you
    lose in ROI.
    Maybe this is all a bit too simple, but a loss of 3
    % in ROI is not a catastrophe with clubgowi…If they continue the 14 %
    that would be not bad at all!
    So I agree, better to continue!

    What I really like about clubgowi is:
    The
    huge amount of liquidity with bookmakers when the bets are released due
    to low average odds and the late release (day of the match)
    The low average odds (so not big drawdowns), a high ROC can be achieved
    The huge number of bets, over 1.000 which cut downs the variance and you do not need to stake too high to get a good turnover

    So a lot of things to like about clubgowi, hopefully your test will work out well!

    Thanks for sharing your experiences!

    Regards,

    Edwin.

  7. Kizo says:

    You’ll see in due time that hard swings are more than often and that odds are inflated. Overall, clubgowi is not worth the money he is asking. Also, it should be duly noted that it is only from this season that he is using variable staking system, all this prior seasons it was 95% flat betting. So, it just might happen that there would be no profit at all.

  8. Tom says:

    Kizo, you recommended Gowi to me on SBC in August, since then he’s made by my records 42.4 units at 10%. I don’t understand how you could have changed your mind since then, by any measure that’s an excellent return.

  9. Kizo says:

    Really don’t remember that I did, but id ao OK. What the case is here it was my second try with Jim after I got dissapointed with him the Furst time. For me, second time started good and than it happenned again. You are obvioustly a Lucky Guy that started following him when he was im a good streak. But, look at some earlier posts – Huge losing streaks. But, as always I can ne mistaken and luckily you ali profit with him.

  10. Maurice says:

    You’re math is wrong mate. 5% loss on odds of 2.00 means 1.90 and not 1.95. I don’t get the whole discussion though, 5% lower odds on average on all picks means 5% lower ROI in the end, it’s really that simple….

  11. Steve says:

    Edwin, I think your math seems right, but I will have Jonno give me a 100% answer in the coming days. Hi Maurice, I don’t think it’s as simple as that. Especially with a service like the Tennis or NBA where the amount you bet is based on the odds you can get and a few other criteria. In some cases a bet becomes a no bet with 5% worse odds.

  12. Steve says:

    I’m close to break even after about 150 bets. I think it could be profitable long term, but the odds really frustrate me. Kizo, i think you also recommended ClubGOWI on this blog. In regards to tipsters, I would never jump in and out of a service, I give it a full season, then I either continue or quit for good.

  13. Bryn says:

    I have found that placing the bets later in the day as opposed to when the email is sent means that not only can the odds be achieved but actually bettered. I have been doing this for the last 60 or so bets and on average have beaten the quoted odds quite easily

  14. Bryn says:

    Oh and that’s using Sportmarket Pro and not the problematic UK bookies!!

  15. Steve says:

    Not an option for me as it is 3-6am in the morning when the matches start. I had looked a few times and on the lower leagues the prices never rebounded, but on the big leagues they do.

  16. Bryn says:

    Ah I see !

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